Small Craft Advisory 71, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1027 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1030 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023)

A few pockets of clouds with even a few showers are in central
Wisconsin moving southeast. These showers are not likely reaching
the ground given dry low levels. Otherwise through this morning
clouds should gradually dissipate as drier air impacts these
clouds leaving mostly clear conditions this afternoon. However,
late tonight into Tuesday we will start to see the front push
through which will bring chances for precipitation and maybe even
some thunder to parts of southern Wisconsin. The northeast parts
of the CWA will feature the best chances (25-40%) while areas west
and south will see much lower chances (5-15%) as a result of dry
air really impacting moisture in the low levels further south.
There will still be plenty of dry air concerns to the northeast as
well but models at least hint at a little bit better moisture.
Tonight into Tuesday morning will be largely cloudy for much of
the eastern CWA but further west may see a bit more in the way of
clearing as the front clears through the region. Models indicate
at least some lake induced clouds behind the front as winds turn
northeasterly and perhaps even a chance for some frictional/
directional convergence near the lake bringing an isolated shower
or two (~15%). Otherwise it will remain dry the rest of the day
Tuesday.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 403 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023)

Today through Tuesday:

Quiet conditions with light southerly winds and some diurnal cumulus
are expected across southern WI today. High temperatures around 80
are expected given WAA associated with the southerly winds and
heating this afternoon.

Attention then turns to a cold front associated with low pressure
currently over northern MN. The low is expected to move across
northern WI this evening and overnight into Tuesday, with the cold
front moving across our area between 10pm and 10am. Mainly showers
are expected along this front given low level frontal forcing,
upward vertical motion associated with the mid-level shortwave
trough, and a lack of daytime heating. However, despite the lack of
heating, a few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE and around 30kt of 0-
6km bulk shear are expected along the front, so can't rule out
thunder in any of the showers that develop. CAMs are suggesting some
low level convergence is possible along the lakeshore Tuesday
afternoon after the front passes, so have left mentions of showers
and storms.

There has been a trend in the GFS and Euro to keep the majority of
of precipitation across northeastern WI closer to the low and better
upper level forcing, keeping much of southern WI dry as the front
moves through. This trend is something to monitor but given the NAM
and CAMs still suggest development across our area as well as the
reasons above, have left chances for at least showers across much
of the area while favoring higher chances across locations in our
northeastern CWA.

After the front passes on Tuesday, winds will become northerly and a
bit breezy with partly cloudy skies. Highs on Tuesday are expected
to be in the mid to upper 70s.

Falkinham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 403 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023)

Tuesday night through Sunday:

High pressure will move in on the heels of the departing trough
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some clouds may linger along the Lake
Michigan shoreline as an 850mb thermal trough makes a southeast
swipe over Lake Michigan and promotes favorable delta-T's for low
clouds. Skies should gradually clear going into the afternoon, and a
nice day should take hold, as northeast winds off of the lake
moderate temperatures and keep daytime dew points comfortable.
Wednesday night may feel fall-like as clear skies, subsidence, and
dry air will allow temperatures to reach the upper 40s.

Thursday should feature more clear skies as the high pressure
continues to exert its influence as it shifts east. Winds will come
around to southerly and heights should rise, promoting warmer
daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Going into the end of next week, a large ridge is expected to build
over the center of the United States, promoting heat again for much
of the midwest. Winds will become southwesterly on Friday and
temperatures should rise into the low to mid 80s, before the blast
furnace kicks in next weekend and temperatures rise into the low 90s
for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Continuing southwest to west winds
will keep potential lake breezes pinned to the Lake Michigan
shoreline. As it stands right now, dew points will be in the 60s
amid modest breezes, limiting heat index concerns.

Currently, models do not suggest any meaningful rain chances in the
extended period, and drought will persist.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1030 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023)

Largely quiet on the aviation side of things. TAFs will remain VFR
through the period with any clouds today being VFR. Clearing skies
later today prior to a front coming through later tonight into
Tuesday. We may see a few showers and isolated rumbles of thunder
but they will largely be restricted further north (25-40%) with
limited chances further south (~10%). There is also chances for
some MVFR CIGS in east-central WI but chances remain around 50%.
Otherwise expect light south to southeast winds to turn more
breezy to the north to northeast behind the front through the day
Tuesday.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 403 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023)

Light southerly winds are expected today ahead of low pressure that
will move across northern WI tonight. A cold front associated with
the low will move southeast across Lake Michigan tonight, bringing
shower and storm chances over the lake as it does. Winds will then
become northerly and breezy on Tuesday with building waves across
much of the lake, reaching 7 to 8 feet across central parts of the
lake. Winds will decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday with waves
subsiding as they do.

Falkinham

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
414 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-290915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
414 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small chance for thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-290915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
414 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters
from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small chance for thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Small craft conditions are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-290915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
414 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chance of thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday. Highest chances
across northern Lake Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Gusty winds around 25 knots and waves 7 to 8 feet are expected
across Lake Michigan Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.

www.weather.gov/mkx