Small Craft Advisory 70, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
423 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023)

Today through Monday:

In the immediate short term, a Beach Hazard Statement for a High
Swim Risk will continue until 7am. Winds and waves are slowly
decreasing as high pressure over the upper peninsula of Michigan
moves east-southeast toward Lake Michigan. Expect conditions to
drop below High Swim Risk criteria after 7am, with moderate swim
risk conditions continuing until around noon today.

Otherwise, favorable delta-Ts, shoreline convergence, and a weak
trough have given rise to some spotty small showers over MKE,
Racine, and Kenosha Counties this morning. This trough should push
inland and wash out through the morning hours, bringing scattered
sprinkle/light shower chances inland. These small chances should
dissipate during the mid morning, and lingering low cloud cover is
expected to break. Expect mostly clear skies closer to Lake
Michigan, while inland areas may see more of a mix of sun and
cumulus clouds. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s and northeast
winds will continue to keep dew points comfortable.

High pressure will slide southeast with time, keeping subsidence
around tonight. Temperatures will likely tank into the low 50s as
a result.

Monday, high pressure will continue to linger and less cloud cover
is expected for all. Winds will come around to southwesterly and a
925mb thermal ridge will lean over into the upper Midwest ahead of
a surface trough, promoting warmer daytime highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 412 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023)

Monday night through Saturday:

A fast moving trough is expect to move east southeast over
Wisconsin Monday night into Tuesday. While the sfc trough will be
paired with a trough aloft, adding some dynamic kick, sfc
conditions will be dry ahead of the trough, adding a bit of
uncertainty regarding the coverage and intensity of showers.
Tuesday, the sfc trough may slow and elongate, keeping lingering
light shower chances around through the day over eastern to
southeastern WI.

High pressure will then build in behind the trough Tuesday night
into Wednesday, and northeast winds may moderate temperatures
some for the day on Wednesday.

Going to the late work week, temperatures will again begin to warm
as a ridge builds over the central US and warm air advects into
the upper Great Lakes region. As it stands right now, heat and
humidity won't be as high as our last round, but temperatures will
still be in the upper 80s to near 90.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 412 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023)

SCT to OVC MVFR cloud cover is moving inland this morning over
southern WI. and some sprinkles/light scattered showers have been
observed around KMKE and KENW. This cloud cover should persist
into the post dawn hours and lift and break and shower chances
should dissipate. Expect VFR during the daytime hours, with SCT
daytime cumulus inland, while lakeshore terminals see more in the
way of clearer skies.

Winds should ease with time, remaining northeasterly and light
during the daytime hours.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023)

Winds will gradually weaken this morning as high pressure of 30.1
inches expands its influence over the upper Great Lakes Region.
Winds today may then remain more light and variable over the
northern end of Lake Michigan, while the southern end of Lake
Michigan sees northerly winds and some modest breezes where fetch
will be greater. Winds will then become light and variable for the
whole lake tonight as the elongated area of high pressure sinks
south over the lake.

Winds then turn southerly by Monday afternoon and modestly breezy
ahead of an appraoching low pressure system.
CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until 7 AM Sunday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Sunday.

&&

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