Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023)

Minor timing differences with the frontal passage and associated
minor changes to the high temperatures today are the main
adjustments to the forecast this morning. Continuing the thought
that gusty winds are the main concern with the associated line of
storms. Dry pocket aloft should assist with downburst potential,
with ML CAPE remaining favorable for storm development along and
ahead of the front. Main line of storms still looks to exit the
region early this evening, with some lingering showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm expected into the early overnight hours
before ending. Dry weather still expected on Thursday as high
pressure builds back into the area.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023)

Today through Thursday:

A cold front will move through southern Wisconsin today, bringing
a chance for showers and thunderstorms. There could be a few
showers well ahead of the front this morning, but the bulk of
precip is expected with the frontal passage this afternoon. Looks
like enough of a window of time ahead of the front for some
heating and increasing instability, with ML CAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg by early afternoon. There won't be much shear to go along
with the instability...and mid-level lapse rates are on the lower
end as well. Could be a few stronger storms given the instability
and marginal shear, with gusty winds more of a concern than hail.
Precipitable water values are expected to push 2 inches given
dewpoints rising to near 70 ahead of the front. This could result
in some brief heavy rainfall as the storms move through.

The main line of storms should clear the southeast forecast area
by early evening, with some lingering post frontal showers
possible along with a few rumbles of thunder. This activity should
wind down by overnight, with dry weather then expected on Thursday
as high pressure begins to build back into the area.

Temps today will approach 90 in the east ahead of the front, with
low to mid 80s west given the earlier arrival of the front and
precip. Lingering clouds and cooler conditions behind the front
will likely keep high temps from getting out of the 70s on
Thursday.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023)

Friday through Tuesday:

Kept some low shower/storm chances going at times late this
weekend into early next week. Not a very strong signal for precip
any given day, but this pattern will leave the door open for
shortwaves to move through once in a while, which could kick off a
few showers/storms. Temps are expected to gradually warm back up
Friday through Monday, with a halt to this possible by Tuesday as
a stronger system may move into the area.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1005 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023)

VFR conditions expected through this morning across southern
Wisconsin, with MVFR conditions developing at times beneath
showers and thunderstorms as a cold front progresses northwest to
southeast today and tonight. Wind shift from southwesterly to
northwesterly expected this afternoon, with some gustier winds
possible along the immediate frontal passage. Stronger
thunderstorms may be capable of producing briefly gusty winds as
well, especially in far southern Wisconsin.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023)

Low pressure will move through the area today, dragging a cold
front through along with a chance for showers and storms. South to
southwest winds ahead of the front into this afternoon will
become northerly and breezy behind the front late today into
tonight. The breezy northerly winds will linger into Thursday
before lighter winds return late week into the weekend under high
pressure.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
408 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-060915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
408 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east
central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon and
evening, along and ahead of a cold front. Some stronger
thunderstorms capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds
are possible during this period, particularly in southeast
Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be small chances for thunderstorms at times Friday
night through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-060915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
408 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of thunderstorms is anticipated later Wednesday afternoon
and evening, along a cold front. Some stronger storms with gusty
winds and hail are possible during this period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be small chances for thunderstorms at times Friday
night through Tuesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-060915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
408 AM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of thunderstorms is anticipated over most of the lake
this afternoon into tonight, as a cold front moves eastward. Some
stronger storms with gusty winds and hail are possible, mainly
over southern portions of the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be small chances for thunderstorms at times Friday
night through Tuesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     Hail             2 W Fitchburg           42.99N 89.46W
07/05/2023  M1.00 inch       Dane               WI   Public

            Quarter size hail now falling within this
            storm.

&&

Halbach

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     Hail             2 W Fitchburg           42.99N 89.46W
07/05/2023  U0.25 inch       Dane               WI   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 2 W
            Fitchburg. Believe this to have been a fake
            report.

&&

Halbach

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
104 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Fitchburg               42.99N 89.43W
07/05/2023  E60 MPH          Dane               WI   911 Call Center

            Tree limbs down in Fitchburg. Via Dane
            County Dispatch.

1233 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ENE Fitchburg         43.00N 89.38W
07/05/2023  E60 MPH          Dane               WI   911 Call Center

            Trees down on the east side of Fitchburg.

&&

Halbach

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
111 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Rockdale                42.97N 89.03W
07/05/2023  E60 MPH          Dane               WI   911 Call Center

            Large tree down in the area of E. Rockdale
            Rd in the town of Christiana.

1219 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Rockdale           42.98N 89.02W
07/05/2023  E60 MPH          Dane               WI   911 Call Center

            Power lines reported down in Town of
            Rockdale.

1250 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 E Stoughton           42.92N 89.20W
07/05/2023  E60 MPH          Dane               WI   911 Call Center

            Power lines knocked down east of Stoughton.
            Via Dane County 911.

&&

Halbach