Gale Warning 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

018 
WHUS73 KMKX 181640
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1040 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-190045-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0500Z-230119T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1040 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  5 to 8 ft expected.

* WHERE...Southern Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-563-190045-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0900Z-230119T2000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
1040 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  5 to 8 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 2 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-190045-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.230119T0300Z-230119T2000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1040 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  5 to 8 ft expected.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 2 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

053 
WHUS73 KMKX 182023
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
223 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-190430-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0500Z-230119T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
223 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 
  6 to 9 ft expected.

* WHERE...Southern Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-563-190430-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0900Z-230119T2000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
223 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  6 to 9 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 2 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-190430-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.230119T0300Z-230119T2000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
223 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  6 to 9 ft expected.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 2 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

753 
WHUS73 KMKX 190320
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
920 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-191130-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0500Z-230119T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
920 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 
  8 to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Southern Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-563-191130-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0900Z-230119T2000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
920 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 8
  to 11 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 2 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-191130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230119T2000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
920 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  7 to 10 ft expected.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 2 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

MRC

938 
WHUS73 KMKX 190829
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
229 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-191200-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230119T1200Z/
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
229 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 
  6 to 9 ft.

* WHERE...Southern Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM CST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-563-191630-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.230119T0900Z-230119T2000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
229 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  5 to 8 ft expected.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-191630-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230119T2000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
229 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  7 to 10 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

175 
WHUS73 KMKX 191506
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
906 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

LMZ261-362-364-563-192000-
/O.CON.KMKX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230119T2000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
906 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 
  5 to 8 ft.

* WHERE...Northern Third of the Open Waters of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ643>646-192000-
/O.CON.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230119T2000Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
906 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Waves 3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM CST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

977 
WHUS73 KMKX 191948
MWWMKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
148 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

LMZ261-362-364-563-192100-
/O.EXP.KMKX.GL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230119T2000Z/
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
148 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

Gales are no longer expected. Easterly winds gusting around 25
knots will become northerly overnight with gusts to 20 knots.

$$

LMZ643>646-200400-
/O.EXP.KMKX.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230119T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KMKX.SC.Y.0006.230120T0300Z-230120T1500Z/
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
148 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
CST FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 25 knots.

* WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
959 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 959 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023)

The focus remains on the upcoming winter weather event Wednesday
night through Thursday, as another surface low lifts northeast
across southern Wisconsin. Latest guidance has slowed down the
arrival of precipitation by a few hours, with the main axis of
moderate to heavy precipitation lifting through between 03-09z
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The overall p-type
forecast has not changed much, but the NBMv4.1 is showing better
chances for freezing rain after the main axis of heavy snow lifts
through and we lose cloud ice, especially along the axis where
p-type will transition from rain to snow.

The 00Z HREF shows the potential for 1 inch per hour snowfall
rates, and with a few pockets of 2 inch per hour in spots. While
it continues to look favorable for higher snowfall rates, it looks
to only last for a 2-4 hour window and then switch over to
freezing rain or rain, depending on surface temperatures locally.
So when the snow arrives expect it to fall heavily. This snow will
be a very wet and heavy snow, which will make snowfall more
difficult.

Anderson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 355 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023)

Tonight through Thursday:

The drizzle should finally end by late evening as low pressure
over northern Lower Michigan finally pulls away. We will remain
cloudy through Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to
bottom out around 30, but this may be too cold of a forecast given
the lack of cold air advection. A few breaks in the clouds are
possible Wed afternoon before our next system arrives. High
temperatures should be in the mid to upper 30s across southern WI
with winds changing around to the east by midday.

Synoptic Setup-

Surface low pressure will track from KS 21Z Wed to northern IL
12z Thu and central Lower MI 21Z Thu while weakening slightly. The
12Z models showed a slight northward shift with the surface low
track into far southeast WI Thursday morning. The QPF has come
down a bit, with a 24-hr total of around 0.75 rather than 0.90
inch. The 850mb low still looks broad and progressive and it
tracks across all of southern WI on Thursday. The interesting
thing about this 850mb low is that there is not much of a warm
tongue feeding into it on the north side, probably because it just
keeps moving.

A closed 500mb upper low will steadily track from Kansas at 18z
Wed to central WI at 18z Thu while not digging or tilting. When
the upper low moves overhead, this will cut off moisture aloft and
limit the additional precip that southern WI gets Thu morning.
This will also take the moisture out of the snow growth region
and we could deal with some freezing drizzle. Temperatures will
remain in the 30 to 33 degree range during this event for most of
our area.

Precip Amt and Type, Headline Considerations-

The brunt of the precip will arrive with the frontogenesis on the
leading edge of this low and then taper off quickly once the 850mb
and 500mb low moves overhead. Therefore, this will be a quick-
hitter during the overnight hours. The QPF has come down a bit,
with a 24-hr total of around 0.75 rather than 0.90 inch. This also
helped to bring down the snowfall amounts by about an inch toward
the Dells.

Looking at many of the ensembles and deterministic models, 4-6
inches in a 12-hr period (Wed nt) looks reasonable for central WI
and our northwest fringe of Sauk, Marquette and Green Lake
Counties. The snowfall forecast for Iowa and Columbia counties may
not end up meeting warning criteria by the time we start issuing
headlines. Fond du Lac county is also on that edge/fringe. If we
go strictly by the probability of exceeding the 6 inch snowfall
threshold, we could probably get away with no warning. The
snowfall rates will be the thing that causes the highest travel
impact. Snowfall will be heaviest between 9 pm and 3 am over our
western counties.

As for precip type, the thermal profile suggests snow for a good
portion of southern WI. Model soundings show a brief warm layer
that gets shunned colder with the deep moisture and dynamic
cooling from the top down. A wintry mix with rain, sleet and snow
is expected at the onset Wednesday evening. Once the deeper
moisture arrives, any mix will change to all snow for south
central WI, but far southeast WI should start to transition to
rain since this is when the surface low and warmer air creeps
closer. The area in between Madison and Burlington is where there
is the most uncertainty for the precip type, amount, and timing
of any transition from rain to snow and back to rain/drizzle.
Watertown (in the center of the uncertainty) could see a quick 2
to 4 inches between midnight and 3 AM since there is strong
forcing and the thermal profile favors snow for a short period of
time.

The precip will taper off from south to north as the drier air
aloft moves in and low pressure tracks through northern IL and
southern Lake Michigan Thursday morning. This also is the time
where we lose ice crystals. With inland temps hovering between 30
and 32 degrees, freezing drizzle is a concern, but the impact from
this seems like it should be limited to elevated surfaces.

Thursday will have lingering, light wrap-around snow showers and
drizzle with increasing northwest winds.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 355 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023)

Thursday night through Friday:

Influence of the departing system is likely to linger this period as
mid level and low level flow remains cyclonic with plenty of low
level moisture. So with still some uncertainty with regards to ice
introduction any of this lighter precipitation could end up being
either fzdz or very light snow/flurries. Most of this would occur on
Thursday night with less of a signal for Friday though low level
cold pool will linger.

Saturday through Tuesday:

Weak low level ridging will likely make for a quiet weekend. However
keeping a close eye on the GFS and the ECMWF trends that brings a
quick hitting swath of snow across the area Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The NBM is favoring a drier look for our area and
somewhat concerning. May need to eventually add some pops for this
system as we draw closer. A cold front may bring a period of snow
showers to area later Monday into Tuesday with a push of colder
850/925 temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 959 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023)

Overall, MVFR ceilings are expected tonight into Wednesday. It is
possible ceilings lift to VFR briefly, but as another system
lifts across southern Wisconsin Wednesday night through Thursday,
rain and snow are expected along with the return of LIFR ceilings.
By Wednesday night, snow begins to lift north across the area,
bringing a period of moderate to heavy snow to KMSN/KSBM between
03z-09z. Snowfall rates may approach 1-2 inch per hour, but these
snowfall rates should only last 2-3 hours. KJVL/KUES/KMKE will be
on or near the rain/snow line, and may see some freezing rain at
times Wednesday night. Outside of some initial light snow, KENW
looks to stay mostly rain during the Wednesday night/Thursday
precip. event. Again the main areas of concern aviation wise for
snowfall remain KMSN and KSBM.

West-Northwest winds tonight become north tonight, then northeast
on Wednesday morning. Speeds remain around 5-10 knots, then
increase from the northeast and east late Wednesday as the above
mentioned system tracks closer to the region and the pressure
gradient increases.

Anderson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 355 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023)

Gusty westerly winds over the south half of Lake Michigan will
gradually diminish through late evening. The Small Craft Advisory
in effect until 9 pm seems reasonable.

Low pressure tracking from KS to northern IL to southern lower MI
will bring a period of gusty easterly winds to Lake Michigan
Wednesday night into Thursday. A brief period of easterly gale
force gusts looks likely for the south half Wednesday night and
for the north half early Thursday morning. Since gusts should be
brief and marginal, we did not issue a Gale Watch or Gale Warning.

Gusty northwest winds will follow in the wake of this system
Thursday night into Friday morning. Gusts are expected to remain
below gale force.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062...6 PM
     Wednesday to 3 PM Thursday.

LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-182115-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
303 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Accumulating snow and a wintry mix of precipitation are likely
Wednesday night into Thursday which may impact the Thursday
morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-182115-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
303 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for gusty west winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Easterly winds and waves will reach Small Craft Advisory levels
Wednesday night into Thursday. Hazardous conditions may return
Thursday night into Friday with gusty northwest winds.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-182115-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
303 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Patchy dense fog is possible over the northern half of the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A brief period of easterly gale force gusts is possible Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

MRC

www.weather.gov/mkx