Gale Warning 24, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
936 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 936 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023)

Thunderstorms are moving into southern WI now. The environment is
not favorable for severe with low CAPE and shear, although we
still have some weak elevated CAPE over southeast WI which could
allow for some gusty winds as the storms roll through.

The storms should lift northeast through southern and central WI
from now through 2 AM. The HRRR seems to have a decent handle on
the coverage. Lightning risk will be highest on leading edge of
this convective area.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023)

This Afternoon through Monday:

A broken area of thunderstorms has developed across southern
Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with a surface trough
moving through the area. There remains a limited severe weather
threat with this convection, mainly tied to marginally severe
hail, though a few instances of gusty winds are possible as well.

This initial round of showers and thunderstorms will likely
persist through late afternoon and early evening. After that,
another area of showers and thunderstorms will push into the area
mid to late evening, as the main surface low begins to lift
northward into the region. Could also see some marginally severe
hail with this activity, but not terribly impressed by the thermo
environment.

Rain showers will likely fill in through the morning on Sunday as
the upper level low approaches. As the surface low lifts
northeastward through the day, winds will pick up from the west
and northwest, with colder air building into the area. Precip
intensity will also increase as better upper level dynamics become
juxtaposed with low level frontogenesis, especially for locations
west of Madison. Rain will begin to change over to snow Sunday
afternoon, with snow expected Sunday evening through Monday
afternoon.

The heaviest snowfall is currently expected to occur west of
Madison, especially during the overnight hours Sunday night into
Monday morning, when snowfall rates could be rather heavy.
Accumulations are tricky this time of year, given warm ground and
road surfaces, but the overnight timing will be favorable in this
case. Have gone ahead and added Sauk, Iowa, and Lafayette to the
Winter Storm Watch Sunday evening through mid morning Monday. An
Advisory is likely to eventually be needed for another row or two
of counties further east.

It will also be quite blustery Sunday night and Monday, with
gusts to around 35-40 MPH, which could lead to some blowing snow
issues as well. And with temperatures only reaching the mid 30s on
Monday, it will feel VERY chilly compared to last week's summer-
like weather.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023)

Monday Night through Saturday:

A few snow showers may linger across the eastern portion of the
area into early Monday evening, but will then end. Lows Monday
night are expected to fall into the 20s, with low 20s possible
across the west where the heaviest snow is expected.

Tuesday is looking like a fairly nice day, with diminishing winds
and sunny skies. Precip chances return Wednesday and especially
Wednesday night, as a baroclinic zone takes shape to our south and
low pressure moves across northern Missouri and Illinois.

The active pattern will continue into the weekend, with near daily
chances for rain, and perhaps even a few more snowflakes late in
the week as cooler air returns.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 936 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023)

An area of thunderstorms will lift northeast through southern and
central WI through 2 AM. Lightning risk will be highest on the
leading edge of the convection. There could be a break in shower
activity before another area of showers fills in early Sunday
morning. There is a distinct difference in wind direction across
southern WI- lakeshore areas will have variable to southeast to
east winds and inland areas will have steadier northwest winds.
This is due to low pressure sitting right over WI overnight.

Look for strong west to northwest winds to spread in Sunday
afternoon and persist through Monday. VFR ceilings will become
MVFR and then IFR during the overnight hours, especially with
that second batch of showers early Sunday morning.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 936 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023)

There is enough confidence that we should have gale force gusts
Sunday night through Monday evening over the south half of Lake
Michigan to hoist a gale watch. Southwest winds just above the
surface should be around 40 kt Sunday afternoon, and shower
activity would help mix down some higher gusts, so we have the
gale watch beginning at 21z Sun. This might not be early enough.
The north half will have a chance for gales on Monday, but
confidence was not high enough to put them in the watch at this
time.

The NSH area might have gale gusts on Monday and may need a gale
warning. Not quite enough confidence in speed and timing yet.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ067...7 PM Sunday to 10 AM
     Monday.

LM...Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 PM Sunday to 1 AM
     Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...1 PM Sunday
     to 10 AM Tuesday.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

WIZ063-064-068>070-160430-
Green WI-Walworth WI-Rock WI-Jefferson WI-Dane WI-
1056 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Green,
northwestern Walworth, northern Rock, southeastern Dane and
southwestern Jefferson Counties through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1056 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Albany to near Edgerton to 7 miles east of
Milton. Movement was north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Janesville, Fitchburg, Whitewater, Stoughton, Fort Atkinson,
Oregon, Jefferson, McFarland, Monona, Lake Mills, Milton, Edgerton,
Evansville, Cottage Grove, Deerfield, Shorewood Hills, Cambridge,
Brooklyn, and Lake Ripley.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 18 between mile markers 82 and 84.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 256 and 273.
 Interstate 39/90 between mile markers 138 and 170.
 Interstate 94 between mile markers 241 and 252.
 Wisconsin Highway 26 between mile markers 6 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4308 8952 4313 8915 4306 8878 4266 8871
      4275 8908 4269 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 172DEG 30KT 4277 8940 4282 8910 4275 8882

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMILLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1059 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

WIZ068-069-160430-
Green WI-Rock WI-
1059 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Green and
western Rock Counties through 1130 PM CDT...

At 1059 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Brodhead to near Orfordville. Movement was
north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Brodhead, Orfordville, Monticello, Albany, Footville,
Newark, Magnolia, Hanover, Attica, Juda, and Avon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 8969 4282 8916 4254 8913 4251 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 167DEG 28KT 4258 8947 4260 8917

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMILLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

WIZ064-065-070>072-160445-
Walworth WI-Waukesha WI-Racine WI-Jefferson WI-Kenosha WI-
1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Walworth,
western Racine, southern Waukesha, southeastern Jefferson and west
central Kenosha Counties through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Palmyra to near Browns Lake to near Round
Lake. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waukesha, New Berlin, Muskego, Whitewater, Elkhorn, Delavan, Lake
Geneva, Mukwonago, East Troy, Wales, Wind Lake, Vernon, Ottawa,
Rochester, Dousman, North Prairie, Palmyra, Big Bend, Browns Lake,
and Waterford North.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 320 and 331.
 Wisconsin Highway 26 near mile marker 32.
 Interstate 43 between mile markers 23 and 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 8879 4296 8807 4271 8819 4254 8827
      4261 8849 4267 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 229DEG 32KT 4287 8867 4269 8830 4232 8811

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CMILLER