Frost Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

260 
WWUS73 KMKX 100245
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
945 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

WIZ056-062-063-067>070-101045-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.231010T0600Z-231010T1300Z/
Sauk-Iowa-Dane-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, 
Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, 
Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, 
Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, and East Troy
945 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34, along with light winds and 
  clearer skies in the advisory area, will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Sauk, Iowa, Dane, Lafayette, Green, Rock and Walworth 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
  uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

MRC

124 
WWUS73 KMKX 100907
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
407 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

WIZ056-062-063-067>070-101300-
/O.CON.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231010T1300Z/
Sauk-Iowa-Dane-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, 
Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, 
Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, 
Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, and East Troy
407 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34, along with light winds and 
  clearer skies in the advisory area, will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Sauk, Iowa, Dane, Lafayette, Green, Rock and Walworth 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM CDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

032 
WWUS73 KMKX 101250
NPWMKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
750 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

WIZ056-062-063-067>070-101400-
/O.EXP.KMKX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-231010T1300Z/
Sauk-Iowa-Dane-Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-
Including the cities of Baraboo, Reedsburg, Prairie Du Sac, 
Sauk City, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Madison, 
Darlington, Shullsburg, Benton, Belmont, Argyle, Blanchardville, 
Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville, Beloit, Whitewater, Delavan, 
Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, and East Troy
750 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

Temperatures have begun to rise across the area as the sun rises,
with no additional frost formation expected.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1046 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1039 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023)

Forecast details from the early morning discussion remain on track
as DNVA over the region has provided subsidence and clear skies.
Expect some fair weather cu to develop into the afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 352 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023)

Today through Tuesday night:

CLouds are continuing to gradually decrease across southwestern
Wisconsin this morning. Temperatures under the clear skies are
slowly dropping across areas inland from Lake Michigan. The warmer
lake will keep temperatures up in the mid to low 40s for lakeshore
towns and will prevent frost from developing. Temperatures for
inland areas are still expected to fall into the mid to low 30s.
With weak winds and clearing skies frost is still expected to
develop away from the Lake.

A low pressure system south of James Bay will remain near
stationary for the next couple of days. Clouds are expected to
redevelop later this afternoon on the fringes of this low.
Northwest flow will remain across the state under this pattern
which will keep high temperatures in the 50s and overnight lows in
the 30s. Southern Wisconsin will remain fair enough outside of
this influence of this low pressure system to remain dry into mid
this week when the next system will approach the state. Frost will
again be possible tonight, mainly across southwestern and south
central Wisconsin where temperatures will be low enough, skies
clearer and winds lighter. There is a bit of uncertainty in the
amount of frost coverage for these areas, but that is dependent on
how low the temperatures fall and how much the winds weaken.
Regardless, patchy frost is expected. The frost potential will
remain for Tuesday night as well.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 352 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023)

Wednesday through Sunday:

Wet and rainy weather remains likely for the end of the work week
and into the weekend. Uncertainty again remains with the timing
and track of this system. Wednesday looks to remain mostly dry as
this system has slowed ever so slightly. Looking at the
deterministic runs highlights some of the discrepancies well with
the EURO and Canadian models being the two most divergent
solutions and the GFS somewhere in between. The discrepancies
here have more to do with where the heaviest rainfall is expected
to be, how much rain we get, the chance for any thunderstorms
etc. Confidence remains high on our chances for rainfall overall
during this period so its the finer details that still need to be
hashed out. Taking the Euro at face value would give us the most
QPF and heavier rainfall as well as the chance for some
thunderstorms. This is due to the Euro trying to bring the warm
sector into the middle of the state. Thus PWATs are high and
moisture is high for the Euro solution. Which puts PWATs near
climatological highs for this time of year. Looking at the other
side of the scale the Canadian has this low pressure system taking
a dive to the south. Thus southern Wisconsin would remain on the
northern side of the system, seeing less rain, and cooler
temperatures overall(when compared with the Euro). No worries tho
because regardless of solution we're still only looking at
rainfall.

Given these two diverging solutions there is the possibility for
a few shortwave troughs to move through the flow on the back side
of this low pressure system, which could cause these rain showers
to linger through much of the weekend. There is a fair amount of
uncertainty on this tho. Lingering rain chances will be relying on
the fact that there is enough moisture with northerly flow and
enough PVA to get rain. Staying among the average for guidance
for the weekend has kept POPs in around 20-40%. Expect some
changes to the timing and rainfall amounts in the days to come as
some of these finer details get hashed out.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1046 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023)

Northwest winds will be breezy today with gusts to 20 knots. While
some areas are experiencing clear skies at the moment, fair
weather cu is expected to develop into this afternoon. Bases
should start around 2500ft this morning and rise to low VFR (~3500
to 4000ft) this afternoon.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 352 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023)

Low pressure south of James Bay will remain near stationary
over the next couple of days and weaken along the way. With high
pressure to the west of the state, the persistent breezy
northwest winds across Lake Michigan will persist through
Tuesday. By mid to late week, winds will become easterly ahead of
an approaching low pressure system. The onshore east winds are
expected to be strong and gusty.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-101530-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There will be another chance for frost tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Frost will be possible again Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-101530-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory levels this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Winds and waves may approach Small Craft Advisory levels again at
the end of the week.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-101530-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong winds and high waves will be possible later in the week.

www.weather.gov/mkx