Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2023

Wind Advisory 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

December 16, 20237 counties in North Carolina

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this wind advisory at Dec 16, 2023, 4:00 AM EST for 7 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Dec 17, 2023, 3:00 PM EST. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 16, 2023, 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 17, 2023, 3:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 18, 2023, 12:00 AM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2023-12-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2023-12-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -13 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2497 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-51 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

699 
WWUS72 KMHX 160900
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

NCZ196-204-205-162145-
/O.UPG.KMHX.HW.A.0001.231217T1600Z-231218T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.HW.W.0001.231217T2000Z-231218T0500Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
Including the cities of Beaufort, Harkers Island, Sea Level, 
Cedar Island, Ocracoke, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, 
and Hatteras Village
400 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ094-194-195-199-162145-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T1700Z-231218T0500Z/
Pamlico-Southern Craven-West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
Including the cities of Oriental, Bayboro, Arapahoe, Vandemere, 
New Bern, River Bend, Fairfield Harbor, Havelock, Morehead City, 
Newport, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Stella, Swansboro, 
Sneads Ferry, and North Topsail Beach
400 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret and Coastal 
  Onslow Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ047-080-081-203-162145-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T2000Z-231218T0500Z/
Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, East Lake, 
Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Engelhard, 
Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, Swanquarter, Duck, Southern Shores, 
Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, and Manteo
400 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare, Beaufort and Mainland Hyde Counties, 
  and Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
516 
WWUS72 KMHX 162135
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
435 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

NCZ196-204-205-170945-
/O.CON.KMHX.HW.W.0001.231217T2000Z-231218T0500Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
Including the cities of Beaufort, Harkers Island, Sea Level, 
Cedar Island, Ocracoke, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, 
and Hatteras Village
435 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ094-194-195-199-170945-
/O.CON.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T1700Z-231218T0500Z/
Pamlico-Southern Craven-West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
Including the cities of Oriental, Bayboro, Arapahoe, Vandemere, 
New Bern, River Bend, Fairfield Harbor, Havelock, Morehead City, 
Newport, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Stella, Swansboro, 
Sneads Ferry, and North Topsail Beach
435 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret and Coastal 
  Onslow Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ047-080-081-203-170945-
/O.CON.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T2000Z-231218T0500Z/
Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, East Lake, 
Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Engelhard, 
Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, Swanquarter, Duck, Southern Shores, 
Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, and Manteo
435 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare, Beaufort and Mainland Hyde Counties, 
  and Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
739 
WWUS72 KMHX 170830
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

NCZ196-204-205-172145-
/O.CON.KMHX.HW.W.0001.231217T2000Z-231218T0500Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
Including the cities of Beaufort, Harkers Island, Sea Level, 
Cedar Island, Ocracoke, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, 
and Hatteras Village
330 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ094-194-195-199-172145-
/O.EXT.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T2000Z-231218T0500Z/
Pamlico-Southern Craven-West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
Including the cities of Oriental, Bayboro, Arapahoe, Vandemere, 
New Bern, River Bend, Fairfield Harbor, Havelock, Morehead City, 
Newport, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Stella, Swansboro, 
Sneads Ferry, and North Topsail Beach
330 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret and Coastal 
  Onslow Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ047-080-081-203-172145-
/O.EXT.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T2200Z-231218T0500Z/
Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, East Lake, 
Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Engelhard, 
Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, Swanquarter, Duck, Southern Shores, 
Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, and Manteo
330 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare, Beaufort and Mainland Hyde Counties, 
  and Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
430 
WWUS72 KMHX 172051
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
351 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

NCZ196-204-205-180500-
/O.CON.KMHX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-231218T0500Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
Including the cities of Beaufort, Harkers Island, Sea Level, 
Cedar Island, Ocracoke, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, 
and Hatteras Village
351 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...East Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and Hatteras 
  Island.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ047-080-081-203-180500-
/O.EXT.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.231217T2051Z-231218T0500Z/
Mainland Dare-Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, East Lake, 
Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, Aurora, Engelhard, 
Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, Swanquarter, Duck, Southern Shores, 
Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, and Manteo
351 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare, Beaufort and Mainland Hyde Counties, 
  and Northern Outer Banks.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ094-194-195-199-180500-
/O.CON.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-231218T0500Z/
Pamlico-Southern Craven-West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
Including the cities of Oriental, Bayboro, Arapahoe, Vandemere, 
New Bern, River Bend, Fairfield Harbor, Havelock, Morehead City, 
Newport, Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Stella, Swansboro, 
Sneads Ferry, and North Topsail Beach
351 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Pamlico, Southern Craven, West Carteret and Coastal 
  Onslow Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
501 
WWUS72 KMHX 180506
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1206 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

NCZ196-204-205-181700-
/O.EXP.KMHX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-231218T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WI.Y.0010.231218T0506Z-231218T1700Z/
East Carteret-Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
Including the cities of Beaufort, Harkers Island, Sea Level, 
Cedar Island, Ocracoke, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, 
and Hatteras Village
1206 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  becoming west on Monday.

* WHERE...DownEast Carteret County, and Ocracoke Island and 
  Hatteras Island.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ047-081-203-180700-
/O.EXP.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-231218T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WI.Y.0010.231218T0506Z-231218T0700Z/
Mainland Dare-Mainland Hyde-Northern Outer Banks-
Including the cities of Manns Harbor, Stumpy Point, East Lake, 
Engelhard, Fairfield, Ponzer, Scranton, Swanquarter, Duck, 
Southern Shores, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, 
and Manteo
1206 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Mainland Dare and Mainland Hyde Counties, and Northern 
  Outer Banks.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ080-094-194-195-199-180615-
/O.EXP.KMHX.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-231218T0500Z/
Beaufort-Pamlico-Southern Craven-West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
Including the cities of Washington, Chocowinity, Belhaven, Bath, 
Aurora, Oriental, Bayboro, Arapahoe, Vandemere, New Bern, 
River Bend, Fairfield Harbor, Havelock, Morehead City, Newport, 
Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Stella, Swansboro, Sneads Ferry, 
and North Topsail Beach
1206 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have fallen below 45 mph across the area. Gusty winds will
redevelop later tonight into Monday, but are expected to stay
below 45 mph.

$$

Martin

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Dec 16, 12:53 AM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 16, 12:53 AM EST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1253 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A strong and
significantly impactful low pressure system will move through
the area Sunday and Monday, with several hazards possible.
Behind this system, cool high pressure builds in for most of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1245 AM Sat...Calm and clear conditions will continue
early this morning with high pressure overhead. Some brief
patchy fog is possible, but will be isolated enough to leave out
of the forecast. Temps are hovering in the upper 20s to low 30s
inland, and will continue to slowly drop through sunrise to the
mid to upper 20s. Closer to the coast expect lows mostly in the
30s including the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 215 PM Fri...High pressure will begin to slide off the
southern Mid-Atlantic coast as a large storm system begins to
wind up across the Deep South. PC skies and increasing low level
thicknesses will help boost temps up into the upper 50s to low
60s, with clouds increasing through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Fri...Primary focus in the long term continues to
be an increasingly likely significant surface cyclone tracking
across the southeastern CONUS over the weekend. The initial low
is now taking shape over the western Gulf of Mexico as seen by
satellite, and will begin to lift northeastward and rapidly
deepen as it undergoes baroclinic processes ahead of a well-
defined closed mid-level low forecast to dig into the lower MS
River Valley. At the same time, the mid-level low will also
undergo complex interactions with yet another northern stream
shortwave/closed low diving out of the Upper Midwest.

There is still some uncertainty to the forecast owing to so
many different moving parts. The GFS and the Euro look to have
come into better agreement as compared to the previous forecast
cycle with both either taking the track of the low along the
coast or just inland along the Hwy 17 corridor. More notably,
guidance is also coming into agreement on a stronger low (with
minimum pressure likely around the 990-980mb mark) traversing
the area.

The expected impacts from this system have changed little from the
last forecast, likely to begin early Sunday through Monday with the
worst conditions most likely Sun evening and overnight. They are, in
order of severity:

1) Winds/Coastal Flooding: The risk of high winds has increased and
also expanded further inland owing to the near-shore track and
strength of the low. New ensemble probabilities favor Wind Advisory
criteria gusts for soundside counties on Sunday into Monday as well
as for immediate coastal areas. Probabilities have trended upward
for High Wind level gusts across the Outer Banks particularly on
Sunday night. A High Wind Watch has been issued for portions of
the Outer Banks and downeast Carteret. These winds also raise
potentially significant coastal flooding and ocean overwash
concerns - see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for details.

2) Heavy rainfall: Since this low will have tropical origins, the
plume of moisture associated with it will be unusually rich for this
time of year. PWATs of 1.5"+ sit at around +2-3 sigma above
climatology. Combined with strong lift, heavy rainfall is likely and
flooding will be a concern across all of eastern NC. WPC has our
area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall during the period. Most
likely storm total amounts remain around 2-3 inches, but worst-case
scenario could see amounts exceeding 4 inches.

3) Severe Storms: The forecast track will keep portions of ENC in
the warm sector and overspread a suitably moist airmass over eastern
NC. Model guidance also points to the potential for a hefty amount
of low- level helicity (potentially exceeding 300-400 m2/s2 in the 0-
3km layer). The limiting factor will be instability, though
ensemble probabilities for >500 J/kg of MUCAPE have increased
with the latest forecast suite and as a result have introduced
Chc to SChc thunder into the grids on this update across ENC.
ANy storm that can develop and maintain itself in this high
shear low instability environment will bring a risk of strong
winds and possibly a tornado. SPC has portions of our area in a
Marginal Risk for Sunday. This remains the most uncertain part
of the forecast.

Details regarding the severity, timing, and location of these
threats will continue to be refined over the next couple forecast
cycles, and headlines could be issued as early as this afternoon.
Interests across eastern North Carolina, particularly along coastal
and soundside areas, should continue to closely monitor this system.

Tuesday through Friday...Drier and much cooler air sweeps in behind
the low with the coldest air most likely Tuesday and Tuesday night
with widespread highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The airmass
will moderate through the rest of the week with temperatures
rebounding into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 1245 AM Sat...A quiet night will continue with high
pressure overhead. Despite the extremely dry airmass some brief
MVFR level fog could develop across the northern coastal plain,
but shouldn't have much if any impact to aviation.

VFR conditions continue today as high pressure pushes offshore.
Increasing high based clouds expected late in the day as a
strong low pressure system approaches from the southwest.
Moisture increases tonight along the coast, and some lower level
ceilings are possible as far west as KEWN and KOAJ. Cloudbases
should generally be above 3000 ft, but some periods of MVFR
conditions are possible. By early tomorrow morning moisture will
rapidly increase as a strong area of low pressure lifts out of
the Deep South and an extended period of sub-VFR conditions is
expected Sunday along with hazardous winds and low level wind
shear.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Fri...More widespread sub- VFR conditions are
likely to return from south to north on Sunday as a strong low
lifts across the Carolinas. Confidence has increased in heavy
rains and gusty easterly to southeasterly winds Sunday into
Monday, particularly so for sites along the immediate coast. Low
will depart on Monday with VFR conditions returning and winds
veering southwesterly, then northwesterly on Tuesday while
remaining gusty each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 215 PM Fri...Latest obs show W-NE winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-4 ft. Good boating conditions will continue through Saturday
with high pressure in control. Winds will become NE at 5-15 kts
Saturday increasing to 15-20 kts late in the day. Seas will be
generally 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Fri...Confidence continues to increase in
dangerous marine conditions developing across area waters
starting Saturday night as strong low pressure lifts across the
southeastern CONUS over the weekend. Although there are still
some differences in track, guidance is trending towards a
stronger low bringing strong east to southeasterly winds over
area waters on Sunday, veering southerly and then southwesterly
on Monday as the low lifts northward. Probabilities for Gale and
Storm force winds have increased across the board for all
waters since the last forecast, particularly for the waters
south of Oregon Inlet. Of note are low-end probabilities (up to
20%) for hurricane-force gusts across Gulf Stream waters, mainly
on Sunday night. For this morning, had enough confidence to
issue a Storm Watch for the waters from Surf City to Oregon
Inlet Sunday afternoon and evening, and a Gale Watch for the
northern offshore waters and the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds.
Much cooler waters over the rivers and Albemarle Sound may be
enough to keep Gale-force winds from overspreading these zones.

Raised wave heights yet again and now widespread seas of 15-20 feet.
Conditions will be slow to improve through the rest of the
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 215 PM Fri...A strong low pressure system is expected to
impact the area Sunday and Monday and bring very strong winds.
Based on the current track of the low (inland over coastal NC)
there will be a period of very strong SE winds Sunday ahead of
the low, and then a period of very strong SW winds behind the
low from early Monday morning into the afternoon.

A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued with the majority of the
coastal counties with potential for moderate to locally
significant coastal flooding.

There will be 3 main areas of concern for significant coastal
flooding. 1) Up the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers including most of
Beaufort County and into Hyde County 2) Coastal Onslow and the
Carteret County Crystal Coast including Bogue Sound including
area up the New and White Oak Rivers 3) soundside Hatteras
Island in Dare County. These areas will likely see greater than
3 ft AGL (Above Ground Level) inundation. Highest concern right
now still looks like areas adjacent to the Pamlico and Pungo
Rivers which could see 3-6 ft inundation.

Additional minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding is
likely in several other areas across coastal ENC including up
the Neuse and Bay Rivers, North River and Core Sound, other
areas adjacent to the NW Pamlico Sound, and across the NOBX and
Roanoke Island.

Finally, there will also be potential for minor to locally
moderate ocean overwash along the coast, as well as potential
for significant beach erosion. Areas of highest concern will
be near North Topsail Beach and oceanside areas from Duck to
Cape Lookout.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for NCZ047-094.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NCZ080-081.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday
     night for NCZ194.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for NCZ195-196-199.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
     for NCZ196-204-205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     AMZ131-230.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     AMZ135-150-231.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     AMZ136-137.
     Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...MS/RCF
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 15, 2:26 PM EST, 13 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

NCZ029-044-045-079-090>092-193-198-161930-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Greene-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Northern Craven-
Inland Onslow-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ204-205-161930-
Ocracoke Island-Hatteras Island-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-161930-
Northern Outer Banks-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ080-081-161930-
Beaufort-Mainland Hyde-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ194-161930-
Southern Craven-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ047-094-161930-
Mainland Dare-Pamlico-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ196-161930-
East Carteret-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.
   High Wind Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-199-161930-
West Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ046-161930-
Tyrrell-
226 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong low pressure system will impact the area Sunday into
Monday, bringing the potential for multiple hazards including strong
storms, gusty winds, heavy rain and minor coastal flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 16, 4:00 AM ESTGale WarningMHX56 hr
Dec 16, 4:00 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningMHXCarteret, Dare, Hyde44 hr
Dec 16, 4:00 AM ESTStorm WarningMHX44 hr
Dec 16, 4:17 AM ESTCoastal Flood WarningMHXBeaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde, Onslow63 hr
Dec 16, 4:17 AM ESTHigh Surf AdvisoryMHXCarteret, Dare, Hyde, Onslow4 days
Dec 16, 3:29 PM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryMHXDare, Pamlico48 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2023Every wind advisory in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.