Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
404 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south across Eastern North Carolina later
this afternoon and evening. High pressure then moves in with drier
and quieter weather mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday... Forecast thinking remains the same as our
biggest concern for the remainder of this afternoon and into this
evening will be the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. We already have a severe thunderstorm watch up for
the entire CWA this afternoon which is valid until 10PM.

Latest surface analysis shows a stalled frontal boundary draped from
NW to SE along the Albemarle Sound down just north of Cape Hatteras
and out into the Atlantic this afternoon. Recent 18z sounding shows
a supportive environment for strong to severe thunderstorm
activity across ENC with MUCAPE values of 1228 J/kg, 1082 J/kg
of DCAPE, 35-45 kts of 0-6 km wind shear over the area, and
supportive mid level lapse rates. This environment is spread
all through ENC this afternoon and give credence to the severe
threat. Currently have agitated Cu across the FA this afternoon
with thunderstorms quickly developing and strengthening across
our western zones and across downeast. With favorable conditions
in place will likely see scattered severe storms across the
region for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. With
DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg damaging wind gusts in excess of 60
mph will be possible within any stronger storm, while with over
1000 J/kg of MU CAPE and favorable lapse rates hail sizes in
excess of 1.0 inches in diameter will be possible as well.
Scattered thunderstorm activity should continue to increase in
strength and coverage this afternoon while tracking SE'wards
over the CWA with this activity exiting the coast after 10 PM
tonight allowing for clearing conditions. Thunderstorms will
start out as a mi of discrete cells and multicell clusters and
are forecast top merge into linear segments by this evening as
activity begins to push off the coast.

As we get into tonight clearing skies and N'rly winds will be the
dominate weather feature across the area as high pressure
ridging begins to slowly build into NC after midnight. Thinking
winds will remain too elevated and skies will remain just
cloudy enough to preclude any fog threat tonight.

Temps this afternoon have maxed out around the mid to upper 80s
inland and into the 70s along the coast and OBX while tonight
lows get down into the 50s.

As a reminder, with today's severe weather risk, users will need to
use surrounding radars, as KMHX is currently down for scheduled
maintenance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday... High pressure will continue to build
into North Carolina on Wednesday from the west keeping winds
N-NE'rly at 10-15 mph with stronger gusts but this will also
keep things dry. Temps are forecast to get into the mid 70s
everywhere but the OBX where upper 60s can be found.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...Upper ridge axis will remain west of the
region through the end of the week while sfc high pressure
builds in from the north Thursday then becomes centered off the
coast Friday into Saturday. Dry condition will prevail with NW
flow aloft. A warming will develop through the rest of the week
as CAA wanes and winds become S to SW with mid 80s inland Friday
and upper 80s to around 90 possible this weekend.

The upper ridge begins to break down this weekend as shortwave
energy rides over the ridge and pushes across the Mid-Atlantic
with a backdoor cold front pushing south toward the area. Precip
chances increase late Saturday into Sunday as the front
approaches the area but guidance varies with timing of the front
and how far south it pushes, whether into ENC or stalling to
the north. Meanwhile, an upper low lifting into the Northern
Plains and becomes absorbed in a stronger northern stream
shortwave digging into the Great Lakes Sunday and pushes across
the Mid- Atlantic on Monday. The attendant sfc low deepens as it
pushes across the Mid-Atlantic states and off the coast with
the trailing cold front progged to push across the area on
Monday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Wednesday/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday... Biggest concern through the period will be
the thunderstorm threat through 02Z. Ongoing scattered thunderstorm
activity will continue to increase in coverage and intensity while
tracking SE'wards likely impacting all terminals today and into
tonight with some of this activity being severe in nature.
Currently have tempo groups to attempt to cover highest potential
for thunderstorm activity across all terminals though amendments
will be likely as thunderstorm threat increases at the
terminals. Potential exists for 50kt+ wind gusts, hail, reduced
VIS, and lower CIGs. Behind the TSRA, gusty north to northeast
winds will develop as low pressure develops just off the coast
of the Carolinas. Within the wraparound flow, MVFR CIGs may
occur between 03-09Z. Clearing conditions are then forecast by
Wednesday morning with VFR conditions then forecast afterwards.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds across rtes through
the long term with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 345 PM Tuesday... Not much change to the previous
thinking outside of shortening up some of the SCA's across our
northern coastal waters and inland sounds given latest trends.
Even then SCA's go out until Wednesday morning/afternoon.
Frontal boundary is currently making its way S'wards across the
Pamlico Sound shifting W-SW'rly breezes at 10-15 kts with gusts
in excess of 25 kts at times to a NE'rly direction. This front
should sweep through the entire area by about 2-3Z tonight
allowing for gusty NE'rly breezes into Wednesday. Where
thunderstorms occur, wind gusts of 45-50kt+ and hail will be
possible. Waterspouts cannot be ruled out, but the risk looks
relatively low. In the wake of the thunderstorms, a stout
northeasterly flow of 15-25kt will develop from north to south
across area waters. Model guidance have backed off on the
potential for gale-force gusts, but there's still a strong
signal for 25kt+ post-frontal gusts. For all waters, seas will
begin to build in the increasing northeasterly, post-frontal
flow, with a period of 4-6 ft seas likely int Wednesday
afternoon before seas slowly begin to ease back down to 3-5 ft
Wednesday evening.

LONG TERM /Wednesday
through Saturday/... As of 445 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds
in from the west Wednesday night resulting in SCA conditions
ending Wednesday evening south of Ocracoke and potentially Thursday
morning for the central waters. Light winds with subsiding seas
continue Thursday and Friday with the high overhead. Southwest
winds begin to increase on Saturday as a front approaches from
the north.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KMHX WSR-88D radar in Newport, NC is currently down for
scheduled maintenance, and will be down for approximately two
weeks for an important upgrade. During the downtime, adjacent
radars will be available, including: KAKQ, KLTX, and KRAX.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-150-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
EQUIPMENT...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
409 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-102015-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
409 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-204-205-102015-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
409 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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