Beach Hazards Statement 9, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

156 
WHUS42 KMHX 300729
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
329 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

NCZ195-196-199-301930-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.230430T1200Z-230501T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.230430T1500Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
329 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents,
  large breaking waves, and strong longshore currents in the surf
  zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level expected in low- lying areas near shorelines
  and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking
  waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...West Carteret, East Carteret and Coastal Onslow 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 8 AM this morning to 10 
  PM EDT this evening. For the High Surf Advisory, from 11 AM 
  this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and 
  surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents 
  can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper 
  water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer 
  head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. 
  Strong longshore currents will create dangerous swimming 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ205-301930-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.230430T1500Z-230501T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.230430T1500Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
Hatteras Island-
329 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents,
  large breaking waves, and strong longshore currents in the surf
  zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level expected in low- lying areas near shorelines
  and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking
  waves of 6 to 9 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island beaches. For flooding, areas adjacent to
  the Pamlico Sound north of Cape Hatteras.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 2 
  AM EDT Monday. For the High Surf Advisory, from 11 AM this 
  morning to 5 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and surfing
  conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep
  even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.
  Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first
  into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore
  currents will create dangerous swimming conditions. Minor ocean
  overwash is possible south of Cape Hatteras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ203-301930-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.230430T1500Z-230501T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
329 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents
  and strong longshore currents in the surf zone. For the Coastal
  Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level 
  expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches and areas adjacent to the
  Albemarle, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. 
  For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 2 
  AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
  road closures expected. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore 
  currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Oregon Inlet NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/05 AM     2.2        1.6        1.7        1       None    
 30/05 PM     3.6        3.0        3.1        2      Minor    
 01/04 AM     2.9        2.3        2.5        1       None    
 01/06 PM     2.9        2.3        2.4        2       None    
 02/05 AM     2.8        2.2        2.4        2       None    
 02/06 PM     2.9        2.3        2.4        2       None

&&

$$

NCZ204-301930-
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.230430T1500Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
Ocracoke Island-
329 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents,
  large breaking waves, and strong longshore currents in the surf
  zone. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 9 
  feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches.

* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through this evening. 
  For the High Surf Advisory, from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM 
  EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore 
  break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom 
  causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore currents will 
  create dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

227 
WHUS42 KMHX 302137
CFWMHX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
537 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

NCZ195-196-199-010900-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
537 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents,
  large breaking waves, and strong longshore currents in the surf
  zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
  above ground level expected in low-lying areas near shorelines 
  and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking 
  waves of 5 to 8 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...West Carteret, East Carteret and Coastal Onslow 
  Counties.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 10 PM EDT this 
  evening. For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday. 
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and 
  surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents 
  can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper 
  water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer 
  head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. 
  Strong longshore currents will create dangerous swimming 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

NCZ205-010900-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
Hatteras Island-
537 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip 
  currents, large breaking waves, and strong longshore currents 
  in the surf zone. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet 
  of inundation above ground level expected in low- lying areas 
  near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf 
  Advisory, large breaking waves of 6 to 9 feet expected in the 
  surf zone.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island beaches. For flooding, areas adjacent 
  to the Pamlico Sound north of Cape Hatteras.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 AM EDT Monday. 
  For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday. For the 
  Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and 
  surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents 
  can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper 
  water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer 
  head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. 
  Strong longshore currents will create dangerous swimming 
  conditions. Minor ocean overwash is possible south of Cape 
  Hatteras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Coast Guard Hatteras NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 4.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 3.3 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 01/05 AM     2.6        1.4        1.9       1-2     Minor    
 01/05 PM     2.1        0.9        1.5       2-3      None    
 02/05 AM     2.4        1.2        1.8        3       None    
 02/07 PM     2.4        1.2        1.7        3       None    
 03/08 AM     2.3        1.1        1.6        3       None

&&

$$

NCZ203-010600-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
537 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents 
  and strong longshore currents in the surf zone. For the 
  Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground 
  level expected in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal 
  waterways.

* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches and areas adjacent to the 
  Albemarle, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds.

* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 AM EDT Monday. 
  For the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only 
  isolated road closures expected. Rip currents can sweep even 
  the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong 
  longshore currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Oregon Inlet NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft

             Total      Total    Departure                   
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 30/07 PM     3.4        2.8        2.9       2-3     Minor    
 01/07 PM     2.6        2.0        2.0        2       None    
 02/06 AM     2.4        1.8        1.9        2       None    
 02/07 PM     2.5        1.9        1.9        2       None    
 03/09 AM     2.0        1.4        1.5        2       None

&&

$$

NCZ204-010900-
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0009.000000T0000Z-230501T0000Z/
Ocracoke Island-
537 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip 
  currents, large breaking waves, and strong longshore currents 
  in the surf zone. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking 
  waves of 6 to 9 feet expected in the surf zone.

* WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday. For 
  the Beach Hazards Statement, until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and 
  localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best 
  swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore 
  break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom 
  causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore currents will 
  create dangerous swimming conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you
are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at
all times.

Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
500 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build into the area today bringing
quieter conditions to the region before another strong and wet
storm system moves up the East Coast Sunday into Monday. Drier
and cooler weather is then expected through mid next week as
high pressure builds into the Eastern CONUS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1615 Saturday...Quieter/mostly dry conditions continue
this evening as high pressure builds over the area. Exception
for this lies just along and S of the seabreeze working inland
from the coast where some isolated showers should continue to
develop before sunset, best chance between HWYS 24, 70, and 17,
however showers originating on the S side of the Pamlico River
may be blown NEward over Pamlico and Beaufort Counties. This
shower threat ends completely with loss of daytime heating.

Other than the seabreeze showers, expecting all of the evening
to remain dry before a powerful Sern stream shortwave approaches
the Carolinas ahead of a deepening Nern stream upper low/trough
late tonight. Moisture will advect rapidly into eastern NC
ahead of this feature with multiple rounds of widespread
convection developing late tonight. The first round will could
arrive as early as 3Z, but likely closer to 6Z. This first
episode of rain will include mostly offshore convection
originally but Sern zones will see an uptick in activity into
sunrise Sunday. Though instability will be weak, kinematics
strongly support storm organization with super cell
thunderstorms possible through early Sunday morning. This will
bring a threat for damaging winds/isolated tornadoes, and heavy
rains to the area beginning early Sunday morning. Because of
this, SPC has expanded the existing Marginal threat to encompass
the Sern-most zones of the FA and up the coast to Cape Hatteras.
Lows will be on the mild side and very muggy, mid to upper 60s
area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 1630 Saturday...Vigorous shortwave becomes negatively
tilted while pivoting around broad cyclonic flow over the
eastern CONUS, driving rapid surface cyclogenesis over the
Carolinas and mid- Atlantic on Sunday posing multiple
hazards. Heavy rain and thunderstorms, particularly over the
Outer Banks, will be ongoing tomorrow morning as the surface low
lifts along the I-95 corridor. Widespread model consensus shows
showers and tstorms likely ongoing during the morning,
especially in the vicinity of the surface low as it lifts north.
It is during this period that severe potential will be
maximized as surface CAPEs surge north of 1000 J/kg, coupled
with effective shear of 40-60 kts thanks to stout 850mb and
500mb jets. This will also be the most favorable time for
potential tornado development with any discrete cells. SPC has
our area in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms with an
isolated tornado and damaging winds being the main threat. Have
lowered PoPs behind this initial wave of precip when some
clearing is possible, which would allow instability to rebuild
for the next round of convection in the afternoon and evening.
The next wave of convection, driven by the cold front behind the
low, is expected to cross the region from west to east during
mid- afternoon. Some instability will likely linger across the
region despite considerable atmospheric turnover with the
morning low, and a few strong thunderstorms are again possible.
By this time, low- level wind profiles will be more
unidirectional favoring damaging winds as the primary hazard but
there will be a nonzero threat for an isolated tornado or hail
should the stronger instability and cooler air aloft be
realized.

Outside of convection, a brief but potent surge of south to
southwesterly winds is expected, especially in the afternoon as
the low lifts north. Gusts pushing 40+ mph are probable across
portions of the Outer Banks. The surge, while brief, could lead
to some minor soundside flooding issues north of Cape Hatteras.
A coastal flood advisory has been issued for these areas. See
the TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1645 Sat...The low that impacted the area SUnday occludes
and lingers over the Great Lakes for the first half of the work
week before high pressure eventually wrestles back control,
leaving eastern North Carolina cooler and drier for the
remainder of the period.

Monday through Friday...Primarily dry and cooler than average
conditions hold over eastern North Carolina through the rest of
the period as the surface low occludes over the Great Lakes and
meanders over the region through Wednesday. While the low stays
in place, healthy southwest to westerly winds are expected
during the afternoons with gusts up to 25 kt. The strongest
winds are likely on Tuesday ahead of a surface trough pivoting
around the low, with gusts to 25-30 kt possible over the coastal
plain. When coupled with much lower dew points in the upper 30s
to low 40s, RHs will fall well into the 30% range raising fire
weather concerns.

By Thursday, the surface low will have lifted out over the North
Atlantic allowing high pressure to take more dominant control,
quickly shifting offshore and aiding in moist southerly return
flow. By the end of the week, temperatures will have rebounded
to seasonal norms after days of being 5-10 degrees below
average. The next system to watch will be at the end of the week
as weak low pressure zips along a stalled front. Typical model
differences preclude mentionable PoPs in the forecast for this
cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Morning/...
As of 1350 Saturday...VFR flight cats for coastal terminals
with inland terminals still under MVFR CIGs due to the eroding
stratus deck from this morning which will continue to scatter
out leading to VFR for these terminals as well. Sub VFR
conditions in fog and low ceilings will occur again late tonight
in widespread showers/possible thunderstorms. A stray sea
breeze shower/storm can't be ruled out this afternoon south of
Kinston. Late tonight widespread showers and possible
thunderstorms will develop after 6Z with a return to LIFR/IFR
conditions expected. Winds strengthen Sunday with next storm
system working through the area, S-SWerly 10-15G20-25KT,
especially in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 400 AM Sat...Low pressure continues to lift across the
area tomorrow bringing multiple waves of showers and
thunderstorms and extended periods of sub-VFR conditions. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible particularly in the morning
and early afternoon. By late Monday, the low departs with VFR
conditions returning and remaining dominant for the rest of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 1645 Saturday...High pressure resides over the waters
through this evening before a strong area of low pressure
approaches the waters from the SW late tonight and produce
strong winds, building seas, and tstorms.

Light and variable winds, predominantly out of the SE currently
become SSEerly 10-15 kt through this evening with seas generally
subsiding through the evening, 5-6ft N of Ocracoke Inlet, 4-5 S.
SCAs in place for linger 6ft seas continue stepping down, Nern
waters 0Z, Central waters 6Z. As strong low pressure approaches
late tonight Serly winds over the Sern and Central waters will
increase to 15-25 kt with seas rebuilding to 5-7 ft 9-12Z
Sunday, kicking off an extensive period of hazardous marine
conditions, particularly for coastal waters. Strong low pressure
will continue to lift across the region tomorrow afternoon with
a surge of Serly to SWerly winds. Sustained winds of up to
30-35 kt are expected with gusts as high as 40 kts at times.
Within passing showers and thunderstorms, higher winds are
possible. This will rapidly build seas, up to 10-13 ft for
Raleigh Bay and outer Onslow Bay by sunset on Sunday. North of
Cape Hatteras, seas of 8-11 feet are anticipated particularly
beyond 10-15 nm.

Existing Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale Warnings and
SCAs have been issued for all remaining inland waters.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 1645 Sat...Persistent SCA winds will continue at least
through Wednesday as the surface low lingers over the Great
Lakes keeping the pressure gradient tight over the waters.
Beyond tomorrow, the strongest winds are expected on Tuesday
ahead of an approaching coastal trough with southwesterly winds
gusting up to 30 kt. This will keep seas up to 6-8 feet
particularly south of Oregon Inlet, through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1700 Saturday...Behind strong low pressure system Monday
morning, cooler and drier high pressure will move into the area
through most of next week. While this occurs, a large and
occluded low pressure system will sit over SE Canada, and keep a
strong pressure gradient intact across the Carolinas through
Wednesday.

RH values will drop to at least 30%-35% each afternoon, while
winds remain strong at 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. The
strongest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon ahead of a
surface trough pivoting around the parent low. Deep mixing may
promote even stronger wind gusts at times.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1700 Saturday...A brief but potent surge of southerly to
southwesterly winds is expected late Sunday morning into the
afternoon as strong low pressure lifts across the coastal plain.
Gusts could reach as high as 40 mph particularly along the
Outer Banks. Despite the short duration of the winds, some minor
soundside flooding of 1 to 2 feet is possible with the most
vulnerable areas being the Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras.
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for these areas.

In addition to flooding, dangerous surf conditions are likely to
develop on Sunday and linger into Monday. The most vulnerable
beaches will be Sern facing beaches, predominantly from Cape
Hatteras south, and could lead to overwash and dune erosion.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ195-196-199.
     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ131-230.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ136-
     137-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS/CEB
LONG TERM...SGK/MS
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
425 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-302030-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-
425 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms late tonight may produce damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Two rounds of severe thunderstorm potential exist for Sunday. Early
in the morning, scattered thunderstorms may produced damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes. Sunday afternoon, another round of showers
and thunderstorms bring a risk of damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, and
an isolated threat for a tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ204-302030-
Ocracoke Island-
425 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Thunderstorms late tonight may produce damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.

Two rounds of severe thunderstorm potential exist for Sunday. Early
in the morning, scattered thunderstorms may produced damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes. Sunday afternoon, another round of showers
and thunderstorms bring a risk of damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, and
an isolated threat for a tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ195-196-199-302030-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
425 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Thunderstorms late tonight may produce damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

Two rounds of severe thunderstorm potential exist for Sunday. Early
in the morning, scattered thunderstorms may produced damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes. Sunday afternoon, another round of showers
and thunderstorms bring a risk of damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, and
an isolated threat for a tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ205-302030-
Hatteras Island-
425 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Thunderstorms late tonight may produce damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.
   High Surf Advisory.

Two rounds of severe thunderstorm potential exist for Sunday. Early
in the morning, scattered thunderstorms may produced damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes. Sunday afternoon, another round of showers
and thunderstorms bring a risk of damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, and
an isolated threat for a tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ203-302030-
Northern Outer Banks-
425 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Thunderstorms late tonight may produce damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

Two rounds of severe thunderstorm potential exist for Sunday. Early
in the morning, scattered thunderstorms may produced damaging winds
and isolated tornadoes. Sunday afternoon, another round of showers
and thunderstorms bring a risk of damaging winds, heavy rain, hail, and
an isolated threat for a tornado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
517 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

NCZ092-193-194-292200-
Jones NC-Northern Craven NC-Southern Craven NC-
517 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Jones,
central Craven and western Pamlico Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Trent Woods, or near New Bern, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Bern, James City, Trent Woods, River Bend, Tuscarora, Rhems,
Croatan, Riverdale, Neuse Forest, Fairfield Harbour, Coastal
Carolina Regional Airport, Bridgeton and Pollocksville. This
thunderstorm will also impact fire operations around The Great Lake
Fire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 7729 3520 7727 3522 7694 3520 7696
      3516 7697 3515 7699 3511 7693 3510 7694
      3506 7694 3505 7695 3504 7694 3505 7693
      3507 7692 3505 7692 3503 7693 3503 7690
      3500 7687 3503 7687 3503 7686 3496 7686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 226DEG 15KT 3509 7712

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Martin