Beach Hazards Statement 31, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1115 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through tonight, with mostly dry
conditions expected behind it for this weekend. By early next
week, a slow moving area of low pressure may bring a prolonged
period of unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING/...
As of 1030 AM Friday...An area of low pressure was centered over
western PA and is associated with a compact s/w dropping southeast
through the Ohio Valley. A cold front stretches from the SFC low
southwest through the remainder of the Ohio Valley. East of the cold
front, there appears to be a pre-frontal/lee side trough that
stretches from the DelMarVa south through central NC. Based on
surface obs, convergence along this boundary doesn't look overly
strong, but is important because it separates a more moist airmass
(upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) over the eastern Mid-Atlantic
compared to a slightly drier, more downslope-dried, airmass to the
west (dewpoints in the 50s and low 60s).

Through early this evening, the lee-side trough will slowly edge
east, but probably won't make significant eastward progress thanks
to the upper level flow being more parallel to the boundary.
Meanwhile, the cold front will continue to push SE through the Mid-
Atlantic, but won't reach Eastern NC until closer to, or after,
sunset.

There will be 3 potential sources of low-level forcing and
convective initiation through this evening.

1) The first will be the lee-side trough. With daytime heating
underway, we're already seeing some cumulus develop in the more
moist airmass ahead of the trough, and this will be the first area
to watch for possible convective development this afternoon. It's
unclear how strong convergence will be along this trough this
afternoon, but if sufficient convergence is realized, at least
isolated thunderstorms could develop in a modestly sheared and
moderately unstable airmass supportive of strong to marginally
severe pulse-like storms. These initial thunderstorms will likely
need sufficient low-level forcing to help sustain a risk of deeper
convection, so the severe weather risk looks more conditional
through about 2 pm.

2) The second potential source of initiation will be the sea breeze.
A SW/W low-level wind may tend to keep the sea breeze pinned closer
to the coast. Like with the lee-side trough, the
shear/instability/forcing combo suggests a conditional severe risk
(if deeper convection can develop and actually be sustained).

3) Lastly is the cold front. The front will eventually catch up to
the lee-side trough which will help increase low-level convergence
in the region, and will have the added support from the
southeastward-moving s/w. Generally speaking, this will support a
better risk of convection into the evening hours. That said, closer
to sunset, the boundary layer will begin to stabilize some, and that
extra forcing will be needed to help initiate and/or maintain
convection into our area.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: Through this evening, the most likely scenario
is for scattered bands of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
to move southeast out of VA and into northern sections of Eastern NC
later this afternoon into this evening, but with a gradual weakening
trend expected closer to/after sunset.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Through this evening, the worst case scenario
is for widely scattered thunderstorms to develop early to mid
afternoon, followed by an increased risk late afternoon into the
evening hours for all of Eastern NC.

BEST CASE/LEAST LIKELY SCENARIO: Convection is focused to the north
across VA, with only isolated thunderstorms developing and/or moving
through Eastern NC later today into this evening. In this scenario,
the primary risk of severe weather would stay north of our area.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS: For the first 2 scenarios, the primary hazards
will be gusty/damaging winds (40-60 mph) and half-inch to quarter
size hail. Of note, should convection be sustained into the late-
afternoon/early evening timeframe, there would be an improved
overlap of shear and instability, potentially with a slightly
increased risk of severe thunderstorms. In the last scenario, gusty
winds of 30-40 mph would be the primary risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Ongoing strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms are forecast to move offshore by midnight
followed by a flow of drier air late tonight as a cold front
sweeps through following the passage of the aforementioned
shortwave. Post frontal NW flow will usher in much drier air
into the region with skies clearing by dawn Saturday. Lows will
range from the low to mid 60s inland to 65-70 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM Friday...The weekend will begin quietly as Eastern NC
clears out behind the frontal system expected to push through
on Friday. With the airmass drying out and northwest flow aloft,
temperatures will be quick to warm up with mid 80s on Saturday
and pushing 90 degrees for inland areas on Sunday with more
moderate readings along the coast.

The forecast becomes more difficult heading into next week as a
cutoff low dives southward down through the Mississippi Valley and
sets up camp over the Deep South and remains there for the
foreseeable future. While this will be an unsettled wet pattern for
eastern NC, there are some details to be ironed out. Models are
disagreeing on where the low will ultimately end up with some
solutions over the Gulf Coast and others much further north in the
Tennessee Valley. While this is more likely to be an extended period
of wet weather, those southern solutions do present a larger bust
potential because they put eastern NC on the northern edge of the
moisture gradient. If it happens, that could limit the rainfall
across our area, but at this time there is still a 20-30 percent
chance of an inch or more of rain both Wednesday and Thursday which
are likely to be the wettest days of the week. While outside of the
forecast period, there are some signs that the pattern will finally
begin to break down at the end of next week. Expect cooler
temperatures during this wetter period, topping out in the upper 70s
to low 80s most days.

Thunderstorm potential during this period looks fairly limited with
not a ton of instability to work with a shear also limited during
this time. That said, diurnal heating will be the main driver for
storms and with the excess moisture around, some thunder is not out
of the question but this should not be a period where severe weather
is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 625 AM Friday...Continues to look like primarily a VFR
TAF forecast through tonight. Exception is from late afternoon
into early this evening as scattered showers and thunderstorms
occur ahead of an advancing cold front. This threat will shift
east of the TAF sites by 2Z with drier air flowing into the
region tonight behind the cold front.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Friday...VFR conditions are expected over the
weekend with winds out of the northwest at 5-10 kts gusting to
15 kts before taking on a more southerly component on Sunday.
Rain chances increase heading into next week and several chances
for sub-VFR conditions will present themselves throughout the
week driven by the cutoff low pressure system over the Deep
South.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 625 AM Friday...Stronger 20-25 kt SW flow had occurred
last night over the southern offshore waters just beyond 20nm
with seas of 6-8 ft as indicated by the 30 mile buoy east of
Onslow Bay. These elevated seas may briefly extend into the
outer southern waters this morning but with the flow already
beginning to subside offshore, any elevated seas within 20nm of
the coast should subside by 15Z today. Modest southwesterly flow
(10-20kt) is expected across the eastern NC waters today. Seas
of 2-4 ft will be common today, with 3-5 ft seas expected over
the outer southern and central waters. Winds are forecast to
shift to the NW 10-15 kt late tonight as a cold front crosses
the waters. Seas will continue 2-4 ft with 3-5 ft seas
persisting over the outer southern and central waters. Prior to
the front's arrival late tonight, there will be a risk of
scattered strong thunderstorms this evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Conditions for the long term marine
forecast should remain fairly quiet with northwesterly winds on
Saturday taking on a more southwesterly direction by Sunday at
5-10 kts gusting to 15 kts through Monday before increasing to
gusts of near 20 kts by Tuesday afternoon. Seas during this time
period should remain in the 3-4 foot range with 1-2 foot waves
in the sounds. Wave periods should be in the 6-7 second range.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RTE/OJC
AVIATION...RTE/JME/MHX
MARINE...RTE/JME

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
539 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

NCZ195-196-199-204-205-170945-
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island-
Hatteras Island-
539 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening, some of which could be strong to marginally severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-203-170945-
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort-
Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven-
Southern Craven-Inland Onslow-Northern Outer Banks-
539 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening, some of which could be strong to marginally severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.