Alert archive / North Carolina / Beach Hazards Statements in 2023
Beach Hazards Statement 10, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this beach hazards statement at Apr 30, 2023, 8:48 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at May 1, 2023, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 30, 2023, 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 1, 2023, 8:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- May 1, 2023, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
Counties Carteret County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Onslow County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 817 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 232 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 239 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
084
WHUS42 KMHX 010048
CFWMHX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
848 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
NCZ195-196-199-011300-
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0010.230501T1200Z-230502T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
848 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
to 9 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in the surf
zone.
* WHERE...West Carteret, East Carteret and Coastal Onslow
Counties.
* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 10 PM EDT this
evening. For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday.
For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Monday through
Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and surfing
conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep
even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.
Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first
into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore
currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are
in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times.
Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.
&&
$$
NCZ205-010900-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
Hatteras Island-
848 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 6
to 10 feet in the surf zone.
* WHERE...Hatteras Island beaches. For flooding, areas adjacent to
the Pamlico Sound north of Cape Hatteras.
* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 AM EDT Monday.
For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and surfing
conditions and localized beach erosion. Minor ocean overwash
possible south of Cape Hatteras.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Coast Guard Hatteras NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 4.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 3.3 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
01/05 AM 2.6 1.4 1.9 1-2 Minor
01/05 PM 2.1 0.9 1.5 2-3 None
02/05 AM 2.4 1.2 1.8 3 None
02/07 PM 2.4 1.2 1.7 3 None
03/08 AM 2.3 1.1 1.6 3 None
&&
$$
NCZ203-010600-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0600Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
848 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
* WHAT...1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level expected in
low-lying areas adjacent to the sounds.
* WHERE...Northern Outer Banks beaches and areas adjacent to the
Albemarle, Croatan and Roanoke Sounds.
* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
road closures expected.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Oregon Inlet NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
30/07 PM 3.4 2.8 2.9 2-3 Minor
01/07 PM 2.6 2.0 2.0 2 None
02/06 AM 2.4 1.8 1.9 2 None
02/07 PM 2.5 1.9 1.9 2 None
03/09 AM 2.0 1.4 1.5 2 None
&&
$$
NCZ204-011300-
/O.NEW.KMHX.BH.S.0010.230501T1200Z-230502T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
Ocracoke Island-
848 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
to 9 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in the
surf zone.
* WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches.
* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday. For
the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Monday through
Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore
break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom
causing neck and back injuries. Strong longshore currents will
create dangerous swimming conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is
extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are
in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times.
Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.
&&
$$2 follow-up statements
995
WHUS42 KMHX 010125
CFWMHX
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
NCZ195-196-199-011100-
/O.CAN.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0010.230501T1200Z-230502T0000Z/
West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5
to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in the
surf zone.
* WHERE...The beaches from Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City.
* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday. For
the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Monday through
Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore
currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.
&&
$$
NCZ205-010900-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
Hatteras Island-
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, 1 to 2 feet of inundation
above ground level in soundside low-lying areas. For the High
Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet in the surf
zone.
* WHERE...Hatteras Island beaches. For flooding, areas adjacent to
the Pamlico Sound north of Cape Hatteras.
* WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 2 AM EDT Monday.
For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and surfing
conditions and localized beach erosion. Minor ocean overwash
possible south of Cape Hatteras.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Coast Guard Hatteras NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 2.5 ft, Moderate 3.5 ft, Major 4.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.3 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 3.3 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
01/05 AM 2.6 1.4 1.9 2 Minor
01/05 PM 2.1 0.9 1.5 2 None
02/05 AM 2.4 1.2 1.8 2 None
02/07 PM 2.4 1.2 1.7 1-2 None
03/08 AM 2.3 1.1 1.6 1 None
03/06 PM 2.3 1.1 1.6 1-2 None
&&
$$
NCZ203-010600-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230501T0600Z/
Northern Outer Banks-
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
* WHAT...1 to 2 feet of inundation above ground level expected in
low-lying areas adjacent to the sounds.
* WHERE...Areas adjacent to the Albemarle, Croatan, and Roanoke
Sounds, Kitty Hawk Bay, and adjacent tidal creeks.
* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Monday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated
road closures expected.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be
closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of
unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone
property.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Oregon Inlet NC
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.0 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 2.4 ft, Moderate 3.9 ft, Major 4.9 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- ------- --------
30/09 PM 3.1 2.5 2.8 1-2 Minor
01/07 PM 2.6 2.0 2.0 1-2 None
02/06 AM 2.4 1.8 1.9 1 None
02/07 PM 2.5 1.9 1.9 1 None
03/09 AM 2.0 1.4 1.5 1 None
&&
$$
NCZ204-011100-
/O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0010.230501T1200Z-230502T0000Z/
Ocracoke Island-
925 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to
8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement,
dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in the surf
zone.
* WHERE...Ocracoke Island beaches.
* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT Monday. For
the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Monday through
Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and
localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best
swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore
currents will create dangerous swimming conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to
dangerous surf conditions.
Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain
calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many
cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers
from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it
difficult to return to shore.
&&
$$472 WHUS42 KMHX 010820 CFWMHX Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 420 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023 NCZ195-196-199-204-012030- /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.BH.S.0010.230501T1200Z-230502T0000Z/ West Carteret-East Carteret-Coastal Onslow-Ocracoke Island- 420 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in the surf zone. * WHERE...The beaches from Ocracoke Island to Surf City. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT early this morning. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore currents will create dangerous swimming conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it difficult to return to shore. && $$ NCZ205-012030- /O.EXA.KMHX.BH.S.0010.230501T1200Z-230502T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMHX.SU.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230501T0900Z/ Hatteras Island- 420 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and strong longshore currents in the surf zone. * WHERE...South-facing beaches of Hatteras Island. * WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 AM EDT early this morning. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening. * IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Strong longshore currents will create dangerous swimming conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 11:00 AM Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Strong longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip currents, piers, jetties and other hazardous areas. In many cases, the longshore current is strong enough to prevent swimmers from being able to keep their feet on the bottom making it difficult to return to shore. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this beach hazards statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this beach hazards statement went out at Apr 30, 7:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 7:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
701 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and wet storm system moves up the East Coast today
into Monday. Drier and cooler weather is then expected through
mid week as high pressure builds into the Eastern CONUS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Sun...Svr threat ended quickly across eastern NC
late this afternoon with deeper convection pushing offshore.
Scattered light showers expected for the next few hours, with
best chances across the northern forecast area. Dry air will
quickly filter in from the west as today's upper level low
departs the area this evening. Modest winds aloft, some residual
mixing, and a modest pressure gradient should support a
continuation of breezy conditions from this afternoon. Despite
the wind, temperatures should still be able to fall into the 40s
and 50s tonight thanks to strong cold air advection behind
today's cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...On Monday, a dry westerly flow in tandem
with cool temps aloft will support modest mixing and continued
breezy conditions. Despite lower than normal thicknesses, the
downsloping flow will probably offset how cool it otherwise
could be. Regardless, the drop in temps and humidity will be
noticeable.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 425 AM Sun...Today's low will occlude and linger over the
Great Lakes for the first half of the work week before high
pressure eventually wrestles back control over the region.
Cooler than average conditions are expected through most of the
period before moderating back to climatological norms for the
weekend with another potential weekend of unsettled weather.
Monday night through Wednesday...Primarily dry and cooler than
average conditions hold over eastern North Carolina through the
first half of the work as the surface low occludes over the
Great Lakes and meanders over the region through Wednesday.
While the low stays in place, the resultant pressure gradient
will result in healthy southwest to westerly winds during the
afternoons with gusts up to 25 kt. Tuesday will be the windiest
days, perhaps slightly more than Monday as an embedded
shortwave pivots around the parent upper low and aids in driving
a surface trough across the region. With min RHs ranging from
30-35%, fire weather will be a concern. By Wednesday, the upper
low will begin to shift towards the North Atlantic and winds
will abate somewhat, although still gusting up to 20 kt at
times.
The 00z guidance this morning, particularly the ECMWF, is
highlighting the potential for some afternoon showers on Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the surface trough and associated embedded
shortwave. The GFS remains less enthusiastic but still squeezes
out some isolated activity. Will keep forecast dry for now given
how recent these trends are, but pattern would favor some light
showers or sprinkles given somewhat steep lapse rates.
Thursday through Saturday...By Thursday, the surface low will
have lifted out over the North Atlantic allowing high pressure
to take more dominant control. Model guidance diverges beyond
then, although ensembles hint at a return to some unsettled
weather as a weak cold front develops across the Central Plains
and TN Valley with weak low pressure riding along it. Any signal
in place this time yesterday is now more diffuse, and opted to
reduce PoPs to slight chance for the weekend rather than
favoring any one particular day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 7 PM Sun...Mix of MVFR and VFR across the terminals early
this evening. Could see periods of MVFR through 03z with isolated
to scattered showers, with conditions becoming pred VFR after.
Gusty SW winds diminish a bit this evening, becoming W tonight,
then gusting 20-25 kt Mon.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Sun...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Main aviation concern will be gusty winds, particularly
Monday through Wednesday, as lingering low pressure to our north
keeps the pressure gradient tight. Southwest to westerly winds
will gust to 25+ kt each afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 PM Sun...Latest obs show strong SW/WSW winds 20-30 kt
with gusts 25-40 kt and dangerous seas. Strong southwesterly
winds will continue through early this evening, then will
switch to a westerly direction in the wake of a cold front
moving through. Strong, gusty winds will continue well into
Monday, but won't be quite as strong as what is occurring now.
Gales and SCAs continue for the waters and sounds. Winds and
seas will come down some tonight as the flow becomes westerly,
but it will be a gradual lay down. The winds and seas won't
completely lay down, though, given the continued gusty winds
into Monday.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 435 AM Sun...Persistent SCA conditions will continue at
least through Tuesday night as the surface low lingers over the
Great Lakes keeping the pressure gradient tight over the waters.
The strongest winds in the period are expected on Tuesday ahead
of an approaching coastal trough with southwesterly winds
gusting up to 30 kt. Some of the latest hi- res guidance is
favoring a small window of Gales, particularly for Raleigh and
Onslow Bays and this will be monitored for potential headline
upgrades in subsequent shifts.
After the rapid building expected today, seas will have fallen
to around 5-8 feet by Monday morning. The persistently higher
winds will keep seas around these levels at least through
Tuesday night, before weakening winds on Wednesday eventually
allow seas to ease below 6 feet by the end of the period. The
highest seas are expected for outer portions of Raleigh Bay,
with heights up to 8-9 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 7 PM Sun...Behind strong low pressure system tomorrow
morning, cooler and drier high pressure will move into the area
through most of this week. While this occurs, a large and
occluded low pressure system will sit over SE Canada, and keep a
strong pressure gradient intact across the Carolinas through
Wednesday.
RH values will drop to at least 30%-35% each afternoon, while
southwesterly to westerly winds remain strong at 15-20 mph with
gusts of 25-30 mph. The strongest winds are expected Tuesday
afternoon ahead of a surface trough pivoting around the parent
low. Deep mixing may promote even stronger wind gusts at times.
Winds will weaken somewhat on Wednesday while veering
northwesterly behind the trough, but could still gust up to 25
mph at times.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 7 PM Sun...A brief but potent surge of SW/WSW winds
continues this evening, with many gauges along the soundside
Outer Banks beginning to show increasing water levels. Despite
the short duration of the winds, some minor soundside flooding
of 1 to 2 feet is probable with the most vulnerable areas being
soundside Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras. Water rises of
similar magnitude are also possible for waterways along the
Crystal Coast. Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for
these areas. Water levels will likely peak this evening.
In addition to flooding, dangerous surf conditions are likely to
continue into early Monday. The most vulnerable beaches will be
Sern facing beaches, predominantly from Cape Hatteras south,
and could lead to localized overwash and dune erosion. A High
Surf Advisory remains in effect for these zones until early
Monday morning.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
196-199-203>205.
Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
evening for NCZ195-196-199-204.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
196-199.
High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for NCZ195-196-199-
204-205.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-204-205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ131-150-230-
231.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/CQD
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...SGK/MS
AVIATION...RM/CQD/MS
MARINE...RM/CQD/MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHXHazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 8:17 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198-020030- Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Mainland Dare-Greene-Beaufort- Mainland Hyde-Duplin-Lenoir-Jones-Pamlico-Northern Craven- Southern Craven-Inland Onslow- 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ204-020030- Ocracoke Island- 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ196-020030- East Carteret- 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ195-199-020030- West Carteret-Coastal Onslow- 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY... ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. High Surf Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ205-020030- Hatteras Island- 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. High Surf Advisory. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ203-020030- Northern Outer Banks- 817 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY... ...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Moderate Rip Current Risk. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 30, 5:45 PM EDT, 3 hours 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
545 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 N SCUPPERNONG 35.95N 76.47W
04/30/2023 M48 MPH WASHINGTON NC MESONET
PEA RIDGE WEATHERFLOW STATION REPORTED 42KT
GUSTS.
&&
CEBLocal storm report, Apr 30, 5:51 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
551 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0537 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 W NAGS HEAD 35.94N 75.66W
04/30/2023 M46 MPH AMZ231 NC MESONET
ROANOKE SOUND CHANNEL L36 WEATHERFLOW SITE
REPORTED 40KT GUST.
&&
CEBLocal storm report, Apr 30, 5:53 PM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
553 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0514 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 WNW EAST LAKE 35.90N 76.01W
04/30/2023 M54 MPH AMZ131 NC MESONET
ALLIGATOR BRIDGE WEATHERFLOW SITE REPORTED
47KT GUST.
&&
CEBLocal storm report, Apr 30, 6:02 PM EDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
602 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SWANSBORO 34.68N 77.18W
04/30/2023 ONSLOW NC TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS MULTIPLE LARGE TREE
LIMBS DOWN.
&&
CEBLocal storm report, Apr 30, 6:28 PM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
628 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW TRENT WOODS 35.04N 77.10W
04/30/2023 CRAVEN NC PUBLIC
TREE DOWN ON MURPHY ROAD IN BRICES CREEK.
&&Local storm report, Apr 30, 7:06 PM EDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
706 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0342 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE BELL ARTHUR 35.61N 77.47W
04/30/2023 PITT NC PUBLIC
REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.
0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW HALF MOON 34.84N 77.51W
04/30/2023 ONSLOW NC PUBLIC
TREE DOWN ON RHODESTOWN ROAD.
0345 PM TSTM WND GST PITT-GREENVILLE AIRPORT 35.63N 77.38W
04/30/2023 M53 MPH PITT NC AWOS
53 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT KPGV.
0346 PM TSTM WND GST EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSIT 35.61N 77.37W
04/30/2023 M60 MPH PITT NC PUBLIC
CALLER REPORTED A MEASURED WIND GUST OF 60
MPH IN GREENVILLE.
0400 PM HAIL WASHINGTON 35.55N 77.06W
04/30/2023 E0.88 INCH BEAUFORT NC PUBLIC
0404 PM HAIL PINEY GREEN 34.75N 77.32W
04/30/2023 M0.75 INCH ONSLOW NC TRAINED SPOTTER
PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG OLD 30 RD
NORTH OF PINEY GREEN.
0404 PM TSTM WND GST NEW RIVER STATION 34.72N 77.44W
04/30/2023 M55 MPH ONSLOW NC ASOS
55 MPH WIND GUST AT KNCA.
0405 PM MARINE TSTM WIND SEA VIEW PIER 34.50N 77.40W
04/30/2023 M51 MPH AMZ158 NC MESONET
CORRECTS PREVIOUS MARINE TSTM WIND REPORT
FROM SEA VIEW PIER. SEAVIEW FISHING PIER
GAUGE REPORTED WIND GUST TO 44.5KT.
0414 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE PINETOWN 35.59N 76.83W
04/30/2023 BEAUFORT NC PUBLIC
REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
POWER POLES BROKEN. TIME ADJUSTED BASED ON
RADAR.
0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW TRENT WOODS 35.04N 77.10W
04/30/2023 CRAVEN NC PUBLIC
TREE DOWN ON MURPHY ROAD IN BRICES CREEK.
0420 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SE BAYVIEW 35.43N 76.78W
04/30/2023 M45 MPH BEAUFORT NC PUBLIC
QUEEN ANNE DR WEATHERFLOW SITE REPORTED 39KT
GUST.
0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW SWANSBORO 34.68N 77.18W
04/30/2023 ONSLOW NC TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS MULTIPLE LARGE TREE
LIMBS DOWN.
0436 PM MARINE TSTM WIND FORT MACON STATE PARK 34.70N 76.69W
04/30/2023 M47 MPH AMZ158 NC MESONET
47 MPH WIND GUST AT FORT MACON WEATHERFLOW
SITE.
0444 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW CRESWELL 35.86N 76.42W
04/30/2023 WASHINGTON NC PUBLIC
REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.
0444 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 SSE ORIENTAL 35.01N 76.68W
04/30/2023 M59 MPH AMZ137 NC MESONET
WEATHERFLOW STATION MEASURED 59 MPH WIND
GUST IN THE NEUSE RIVER.
0445 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 N SCUPPERNONG 35.95N 76.47W
04/30/2023 M48 MPH WASHINGTON NC MESONET
PEA RIDGE WEATHERFLOW STATION REPORTED 42KT
GUSTS.
0514 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 WNW EAST LAKE 35.90N 76.01W
04/30/2023 M54 MPH AMZ131 NC MESONET
ALLIGATOR BRIDGE WEATHERFLOW SITE REPORTED
47KT GUST.
0537 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 W NAGS HEAD 35.94N 75.66W
04/30/2023 M46 MPH AMZ231 NC MESONET
ROANOKE SOUND CHANNEL L36 WEATHERFLOW SITE
REPORTED 40KT GUST.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 1:47 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | MHX | 3 days |
Nearby
Beach Hazards Statements in North Carolina, 2023Every beach hazards statement in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.