Wind Advisory 6, NWS Medford, OR

297 
WWUS76 KMFR 021123
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
323 AM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

CAZ081-022300-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.230202T2100Z-230203T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Yreka
323 AM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Shasta Valley, this includes Weed, Yreka, Grenada 
  and Montague.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Driving a high profile vehicle on east to west roads 
  may be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is potential for gusts up to 65 mph 
  Thursday night into Friday morning around Weed. The chance of 
  wind gusts higher than 55 mph is about 60 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ023-025-022300-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.230203T0600Z-230203T1800Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Douglas County Foothills-
323 AM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher terrain within central Douglas County and 
  eastern Douglas County Foothills.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ024-026-022300-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.230202T2100Z-230203T1800Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-Jackson County-
Including the city of Ashland
323 AM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The higher terrain within Josephine and eastern Curry
  County, and the southern end of the Rogue Valley as well as 
  surrounding foothills in Jackson County. This includes the 
  cities of Ashland and Talent.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029>031-022300-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.230203T0000Z-230204T0000Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Dorris and Macdoel
323 AM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In California, Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc 
  Counties including Macdoel and Dorris. In Oregon, the higher 
  terrain of the Klamath Basin and Eastern Klamath County and 
  Western Lake County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

909 
WWUS76 KMFR 022231
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
231 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

CAZ081-030630-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Yreka
231 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Shasta Valley, this includes Weed, Yreka, Grenada 
  and Montague.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Driving a high profile vehicle on east to west roads 
  may be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is potential for gusts up to 65 mph
  Thursday night into Friday morning around Weed. The chance of
  wind gusts reaching 65 mph is about 60 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ023-025-030630-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.230203T0600Z-230203T1800Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Douglas County Foothills-
231 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher terrain within central Douglas County and 
  eastern Douglas County Foothills.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ024-026-030630-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T1800Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-Jackson County-
Including the city of Ashland
231 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The higher terrain within Josephine and eastern Curry 
  County, and the southern end of the Rogue Valley as well as 
  surrounding foothills in Jackson County. This includes the 
  cities of Ashland and Talent.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029>031-030630-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.230203T0000Z-230204T0000Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Dorris and Macdoel
231 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In California, Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc 
  Counties including Macdoel and Dorris. In Oregon, the higher 
  terrain of the Klamath Basin and Eastern Klamath County and 
  Western Lake County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

821 
WWUS76 KMFR 030612
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1012 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

CAZ081-031800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Yreka
1012 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Shasta Valley. This includes Weed, Yreka, Grenada 
  and Montague.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Driving a high profile vehicle on east to west roads 
  may be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is potential for gusts up to 65 mph 
  Thursday night into Friday morning around Weed. The chance of 
  wind gusts reaching 65 mph is about 60 percent.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ023-025-031800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T1800Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Douglas County Foothills-
1012 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher terrain within central Douglas County and 
  eastern Douglas County Foothills.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ024-026-031800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T1800Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-Jackson County-
Including the city of Ashland
1012 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The higher terrain within Josephine and eastern Curry 
  County, and the southern end of the Rogue Valley as well as 
  surrounding foothills in Jackson County. This includes the 
  cities of Ashland and Talent.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029>031-031800-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230204T0000Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Dorris and Macdoel
1012 PM PST Thu Feb 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In California, Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc 
  Counties including Macdoel and Dorris. In Oregon, the higher 
  terrain of the Klamath Basin and Eastern Klamath County and 
  Western Lake County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

571 
WWUS76 KMFR 031548
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
748 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

CAZ081-032100-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T2100Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Yreka
748 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Shasta Valley. This includes Weed, Yreka, Grenada 
  and Montague.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Driving a high profile vehicle on east to west roads 
  may be difficult.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ023-025-032100-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T2100Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Douglas County Foothills-
748 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher terrain within central Douglas County and 
  eastern Douglas County Foothills.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ024-026-032100-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T2100Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-Jackson County-
Including the city of Ashland
748 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The higher terrain within Josephine and eastern Curry 
  County, and the southern end of the Rogue Valley as well as 
  surrounding foothills in Jackson County. This includes the 
  cities of Ashland and Talent.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029>031-040000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230204T0000Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Dorris and Macdoel
748 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In California, Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc 
  Counties including Macdoel and Dorris. In Oregon, the higher 
  terrain of the Klamath Basin and Eastern Klamath County and 
  Western Lake County.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

929 
WWUS76 KMFR 032046
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1246 PM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

CAZ081-040500-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.WI.Y.0007.230204T1800Z-230205T0300Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
Including the city of Yreka
1246 PM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of the Shasta Valley from Grenada to Weed,
  including portions of Interstate 5.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ023-025-032200-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T2100Z/
Central Douglas County-Eastern Douglas County Foothills-
1246 PM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

Breezy winds will continue through the afternoon, but are expected
to drop below advisory criteria within the next hour.

$$

ORZ024-026-032200-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230203T2100Z/
Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-Jackson County-
Including the city of Ashland
1246 PM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

Breezy winds will continue through the afternoon, but are expected
to drop below advisory criteria within the next hour.

$$

CAZ084-ORZ029>031-040000-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-230204T0000Z/
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties-Klamath Basin-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
Including the cities of Dorris and Macdoel
1246 PM PST Fri Feb 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...In California, Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc
  Counties including Macdoel and Dorris. In Oregon, the higher
  terrain of the Klamath Basin and Eastern Klamath County and
  Western Lake County. This includes portions of highways 97, 140
  and 395.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
850 AM PST Wed Feb 1 2023

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast appears on track today with plenty of high clouds
spread out across the region. The only change we made was lowering
sky cover so the forecast wouldn't read out mostly cloudy for
today. Otherwise, the upper level ridge remains in place and it
will persist into early Thursday as the next system approaches.
The upcoming systems are discussed in more detail below in the
previous discussion.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs...VFR prevails this morning and will
continue through the period, despite scattered to broken high
clouds. Dewpoints are forecast to rise some tonight and
temp/dewpoint spreads will be closer together compared to recent
nights. This may lead to patchy fog in the Umpqua Basin Thursday
morning. But, confidence wasn't high enough yet to include in the
Roseburg TAF. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PST Wednesday, February 1, 2023...
Relatively calm conditions are expected today. South winds will
increase tonight ahead of a strong front. The front will move
through Thursday and Thursday night with gales and very steep,
hazardous seas. Steep long period swell will follow for Friday.
Another strong front is expected Saturday into Saturday night with
possible gales and steep to very steep seas. High west swell could
follow again on Sunday. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM PST Wed Feb 1 2023/

SHORT TERM...Today 2/1 through Thursday night 2/2...Satellite
imagery shows bands of higher cirrus clouds moving in across
portions of southern Oregon and northern California. These cirrus
clouds are associated with a storm system off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest that will arrive later Thursday into Thursday
night. For today, however, expect another brisk morning turning
into a mild day with temperatures much closer to normal.
Temperatures will continue to rebound toward normal with
seasonable low temperatures tonight.

Then on Thursday, the pattern will change as the next system moves
in. Ensemble guidance has shown a slow-down of this storm, and
that has pushed back the onset of our Gusty Winds and
precipitation by a few hours. As far as winds are concerned,
expect winds to increase on Thursday beginning at the coast, then
picking up along the Side Valleys and finally increasing along
the East Side. Signals remain relatively mixed with 700 hPa winds
reaching 50-60 knots Thursday evening and night from the south to
south-southeast with ensemble guidance from the National Blend of
Models showing a 60% chance of reaching damaging wind speeds (60
mph) at the Shasta Valley and a 50% chance along the Winter Rim on
the East Side. Meanwhile, the forecast Medford to Redding
gradient is around 7 hPa and the statistical and ensemble guidance
shows gusts to 45 mph. This suggests a bit lower of a chance
around 40% to 50% of of reaching the damaging winds threshold. The
most likely scenario (60% chance) is that the aforementioned
areas, along with the higher terrain of western Siskiyou County
and the southern end of the Rogue Valley will see breezy advisory
level winds on Thursday evening and night. Will leave the High
Wind Watch up for now, in an effort to allow subsequent shifts to
evaluate the signals and hope they come back in alignment.

Regarding precipitation, the major change to the forecast was to
delay precipitation by 6-12 hours as well as lessen the rain
amounts. Ensembles are now generally showing that this system will
expend some of its energy to break down the ongoing ridge instead
of the ridge moving eastward in the previous, more progressive
scenario. This change of precipitation has also drastically
lowered snow amounts, particularly for the Mt. Shasta City area,
although some upslope flow could enhance some precipitation there
with a 60 percent chance of seeing at least 1 inch at Snowmans
Summit and a 20 percent chance near Mt. Shasta City. Snow levels
will start around 2500 feet and rise to 3500-4000 feet with the
onset of precipitation before falling back to 2500-3000 feet after
the front moves through.

LONG TERM...Previous long term issued Tuesday 1/31...Friday 2/3
through Wednesday 2/8...The extended period begins with lingering
showers along the coast and Cascades as the front from the short
term departs the region. Shortwave ridging builds in Friday night
into Saturday with overall drying conditions, and areas of valley
fog and low clouds likely.

The next system arrives at the coast late Saturday afternoon. This
system will have a more west to northwest trajectory vs the south to
southwest trajectory of the Thursday night/early Friday system and
this front looks to hold together better than the previous. Expect
another round of breezy winds with this front, but models only
indicate 700 mb winds around 30 to 40 knots which would keep winds
below advisory criteria. Considering that winds will not be as
strong with this front, downsloping effects will be less across the
area. There will be more moisture with this front, and this combined
with the less downsloping will lead to more widespread and higher
precipitation amounts. As the system moves inland, peak
precipitation will be overnight Saturday into early Sunday
afternoon. Snow levels through this period will be around 3,500 feet
to 4,000 feet resulting in mainly light snow for areas east of the
Cascades. Given the more northwest to west trajectory, only light
snow amounts are anticipated for Siskiyou Summit and the Mt Shasta
City Region. For the Cascades and Marble Mountains, total snow
amounts from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning could push
advisory amounts, but given the long duration of the snowfall,
winter headlines don't look necessary at this time. During the same
time, between 0.50" to 1.00" of rain is possible for areas roughly
west of I-5, with 0.25" to 0.50" for the remaining valleys west of
the Cascades.

After the system exits Monday, ridging builds into the region. Most
locations will likely see dry, quiet conditions through early
Tuesday. However, there are some indications that a weak warm
frontal system late Monday into Tuesday could result in some light
precipitation for our far northern areas. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions to continue through Tuesday. This may be short-lived,
however, as another front is possible by mid-week. ANH/BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     ORZ031.

CA...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening
     to 1 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

&&