Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2023
Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Aug 15, 2023, 1:25 PM PDT for Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California; 5 counties in Oregon. It took effect at Aug 16, 2023, 2:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2023, 1:25 PM PDT (20:25 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 16, 2023, 2:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2023, 9:43 PM PDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Douglas County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 57 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3337 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
795 WWUS86 KMFR 152025 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 125 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK... ORZ623-624-160830- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0010.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0012.230815T2100Z-230816T0600Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades-Klamath Basin and the Fremont- Winema National Forest- 125 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623 AND 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623 AND 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 623 and 624, including portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern portions of these zones this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms are then expected over a broader area on Wednesday. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry on Tuesday and trend wetter on Wednesday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ CAZ280-281-284-285-ORZ621-160830- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0010.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Siskiyou Mountains- 125 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 284, 285, AND 621... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...In California...portions of Fire weather zones 280...281...and 284. In Oregon...the eastern portions of Fire weather zone 621. This includes portions of the Rogue River- Siskiyou, Klamath, and Modoc National Forests. * THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ CAZ282-160830- /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ Shasta-Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- 125 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 282... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...In CAZ282...Fire weather zone 282, including portions of the Shasta-Trinity National Forest. * THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ ORZ617-160600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0012.230815T2100Z-230816T0600Z/ Umpqua National Forest- 125 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 617... * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...In Oregon...The eastern portion of Fire weather zone 617 focused over the Cascades. * THUNDERSTORMS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the eastern portion of this zone this afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry on Tuesday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now and familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
4 follow-up statements
140 WWUS86 KMFR 160556 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 1056 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK... ORZ623-624-161800- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230816T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ Southern Oregon Cascades-Klamath Basin and the Fremont- Winema National Forest- 1056 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623 AND 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 623 AND 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 623 and 624, including portions of the Fremont-Winema National Forest. * THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected across thenorthern portions of these zones this afternoon and evening. Scattered thunderstorms are then expected over a broader area on Wednesday. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry on Tuesday and trend wetter on Wednesday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ ORZ617-160700- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230816T0600Z/ Umpqua National Forest- 1056 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 617... $$ CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ621-161800- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Siskiyou Mountains- 1056 PM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, 284, 285, AND 621... * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...In California...portions of Fire weather zones 280...281...and 284. In Oregon...the eastern portions of Fire weather zone 621. This includes portions of the Rogue River- Siskiyou, Klamath, and Modoc National Forests. * THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
450
WWUS86 KMFR 161004
RFWMFR
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
304 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023
...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...
CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ621-623-624-162200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0011.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley-
Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades-
Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest-
304 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, 284, 285, AND 621...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS...
The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of
spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new
fires and strain fire fighting resources.
* AFFECTED AREA...In California...portions of Fire weather zones
280...281...284 and 285. In Oregon...Fire weather zones 623, 624
and eastern portions of Fire weather zone 621. This includes
portions of the Rogue River-Siskiyou, Fremont-Winema, Klamath,
and Modoc National Forests.
* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. Then, isolated showers and thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Thursday morning, followed by a
potential for additional scattered thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry today,
then trend wetter on Thursday, but lightning strikes outside of
the wet cores are still likely.
* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph.
* DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot
vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause
sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions
at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less
wildfire.
Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't
want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit
for more information.
Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you
go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know
your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information.
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions
promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening.
Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens.
If you have not packed your evacuation kit yet, now is the time
to do so. This includes items like important documents and
essentials you cannot live without. Fill your vehicle's fuel
tank. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information.
Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during
the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit
weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in
your area.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could
promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life-
threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a
possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
ORZ617-622-625-162200-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0011.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/
Umpqua National Forest-Eastern Rogue Valley-
South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern
Lake and Western Harney Counties-
304 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS...
The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Fire Weather
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of
spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new
fires and strain fire fighting resources.
* AFFECTED AREAS...In Oregon...eastern portions of Fire weather
zone 617...eastern and southeastern portions of Fire weather
zone 622 and Fire weather zone 625. This includes portions of
the Umpqua National Forest, foothill areas in eastern Jackson
County and near Ashland, and BLM land in eastern Lake County.
* THUNDERSTORMS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
today through Thursday morning. Then, the potential increases
for thunderstorms with a mix of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms
will be a hybrid of wet/dry today, then trend wetter on
Thursday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are
still likely.
* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph.
* DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you have not packed your evacuation kit yet, now is the time
to do so. This includes items like important documents and
essentials you cannot live without. Fill your vehicle's fuel
tank. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information.
Plan now to avoid using equipment that could cause sparks during
the period when critical weather conditions are possible. Visit
weather.gov/medford/wildfire for links to fire restrictions in
your area.
A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are possible during the valid watch time. These conditions could
promote the rapid spread of wildfires which could become life-
threatening. Check weather.gov/medford for forecast updates and a
possible upgrade of the this watch to a Red Flag Warning.
&&
$$
Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford610 WWUS86 KMFR 162012 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 112 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK... ORZ622-162115- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.A.0011.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ Eastern Rogue Valley- 112 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 622... The National Weather Service in Medford has cancelled the Fire Weather Watch. Isolated lightning is still possible in the area Thursday, but widespread lightning is not expected. $$ CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ621-623-624-171200- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0011.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0014.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0013.230816T2100Z-230817T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 112 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, 284, 285, 621, 623, AND 624... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, 284, 285, 621, 623, AND 624... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...In California...portions of Fire weather zones 280...281...284 and 285. In Oregon...Fire weather zones 623, 624 and 621. This includes portions of the Rogue River-Siskiyou, Fremont-Winema, Klamath, and Modoc National Forests. * THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Then, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into Thursday morning, followed by additional scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry today, then trend wetter on Thursday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ ORZ617-625-171200- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0011.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0014.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ Umpqua National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 112 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 625... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREAS...In Oregon...eastern portions of Fire weather zone 617 and Fire weather zone 625. This includes portions of the Umpqua National Forest, and BLM land in eastern Lake County. * THUNDERSTORMS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today through Thursday morning. Then, the potential increases for thunderstorms with a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms will be a hybrid of wet/dry today, then trend wetter on Thursday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
382 WWUS86 KMFR 170443 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 943 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEK... CAZ280>282-284-285-ORZ621-623-624-171400- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230817T0600Z/ /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ Western Klamath National Forest- Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta- Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County- Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt Shasta-Modoc County Except for the Surprise Valley- Siskiyou Mountains-Southern Oregon Cascades- Klamath Basin and the Fremont-Winema National Forest- 943 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280, 281, 282, 284, 285, 621, 623, AND 624... * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREA...In California...portions of Fire weather zones 280...281...284 and 285. In Oregon...Fire weather zones 621, 623 and 624. This includes portions of the Rogue River-Siskiyou, Fremont-Winema, Klamath, and Modoc National Forests. * THUNDERSTORMS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight into Thursday morning, followed by additional scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms will trend wetter on Thursday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ ORZ617-625-171400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0014.230817T2100Z-230818T0600Z/ Umpqua National Forest- South Central Oregon Desert including the BLM Land in Eastern Lake and Western Harney Counties- 943 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 625... * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop have a high probability of spreading rapidly. Abundant lightning can also ignite new fires and strain fire fighting resources. * AFFECTED AREAS...In Oregon...eastern portions of Fire weather zone 617 and Fire weather zone 625. This includes portions of the Umpqua National Forest, and BLM land in eastern Lake County. * THUNDERSTORMS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday morning. Then, the potential increases for thunderstorms with a mix of isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Thursday afternoon and evening. Storms will trend wetter on Thursday, but lightning strikes outside of the wet cores are still likely. * OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts 30 to 40 mph. * DETAILED URL...View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid tossing burning cigarettes on the ground, parking hot vehicles on dry vegetation, and using equipment that can cause sparks. Follow all fire restrictions. Find links to restrictions at weather.gov/medford/wildfire. One less spark, one less wildfire. Gather your fire evacuation kit now. Collect essentials you don't want to lose and prioritize your checklist. Visit ready.gov/kit for more information. Familiarize yourself with your evacuation plan. Where will you go? How will you get there? Who will you call to let others know your are safe? Visit ready.gov/wildfires for more information. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. These conditions promote rapid spread of fire which may become life threatening. Evacuate if ordered to, or if a fire threatens. && $$ Visit us at www.weather.gov/Medford
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 15, 10:34 AM PDT, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 10:34 AM PDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1034 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023
...New Aviation Section...
.AVIATION (15/18Z TAFs)...
A somewhat tricky forecast is slated across the region. We have
the potential for smoke and haze which could impact the
terminals, but not sure if this will result in categorical
differences. Nevertheless, it is worth noting as satellite
indicates smoke and haze from wildfires impacting southern Oregon.
The other tricky part is the thunderstorm potential and whether
the terminals will be impacted or not. It does look like Klamath
Falls would be a candidate along with Medford (lesser chance).
However, confidence and analysis has led to not adding this
mention, but may reconsider in subsequent TAFs if warranted.
Lastly, the return of the marine layer tonight along the coast
may lead to degraded ceilings and visibilities.
Guerrero
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 843 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023/
UPDATE...The forecast is on track for today. Activity along the
western Oregon/California border continues, but lower reflectivity
returns on radar indicate decreasing activity.
Temperatures are going to approach record values through the day.
The forecast high of 107 will be near the record of 108 set in 2020.
Additionally, the forecast overnight low of 73 could easily become
the warmest on record. The current highest low is 70 degrees, set in
2008. Extra caution when going outside is encouraged throughout the
day, especially for vulnerable populations and anyone not acclimated
to these temperatures.
Slight chances for activity this evening remain over northern
California and east of the Cascades. There's a 25% of showers and
thunderstorms from eastern Douglas county to northwest Lake county,
as well as 15-20% chances across Siskiyou and Modoc counties. These
chances will remain until early Wednesday morning. -TAD
AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs... An upper level low to our south west will
keep the threat of thunderstorms ongoing throughout the day. The
best chances for storms at a TAF site is near Klamath Falls(KLMT).
Models are predicting a cell or two to form around that region.
Other than storms, smoke from the two fires near Eugene will spread
into southern Oregon this afternoon. The thickest smoke will reduce
visibilities into MVFR levels in northern Lake and Klamath counties.
There is potential for it to be even lower dependent how active the
fires are today. Otherwise, there will be more lower ceilings
along the coast later tonight. LIFR ceilings seem the most likely
along the coast.
-Smith
MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Monday, August 14, 2023...Conditions
will improve slightly today, but moderate to strong north winds are
expected to return early Wednesday. This will likely require a Small
Craft Advisory south of Cape Blanco at least into Friday. A further
increase in winds and seas is possible Friday. This may produce
steep to very steep seas across all of the waters, and an area of
gales south of Cape Blanco. Though winds are currently forecast to
peak on Friday, seas may remain steep to very steep during the
weekend. -BPN
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2023/
SYNOPSIS...A strong high pressure ridge over the western US and
eastern Pacific combined with a broad upper low off the California
coast will bring a combination of heat and thunderstorms to
inland areas through late this week.
DISCUSSION...The dangerous heat from yesterday will continue
today with temperatures only trending 1 to 3 degrees less hot.
Highs of 100+ (generally 100 to 108) are expected today and
Wednesday for inland valleys west of the Cascades and highs in the
90s are expected for areas east of the Cascades and even across
many mountain areas! This will bring a potential for additional
high temperature records to be broken or tied, especially at
Medford. On Thursday, temperatures will trend 5 to 8 degrees
lower, but still expect hot conditions. Additionally, overnight
lows tonight and Wednesday night will be in the 70s for many areas
west of the Cascades, which will limit any relief at night. An
excessive heat warning remains in effect through Thursday for
areas inland of the coast to the Cascades with heat advisories for
areas east of the Cascades. Please see the NPWMFR for details.
Meanwhile, thunderstorm chances will increase today into
tomorrow, then continue each day through the end of the week. The
broad upper level low off the California coast is sending
mid/upper level moisture into southern portions of the area. Radar
imagery this morning shows a band of showers and thunderstorms
across western Siskiyou County and westward into Del Norte. A few
light showers are also developing this morning in eastern Siskiyou
and Modoc Counties.
Models continue to show good agreement that moisture and unstable
conditions will result in isolated to locally scattered,
thunderstorms and showers this afternoon and evening. These
showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly from the Cascades
east, Siskiyous south and into portions of southwest Jackson and
far southeast Josephine counties. High resolution convective
allowing models continue to indicate the favored area for
scattered thunderstorms today will be across northern Klamath
County and west into the southern Oregon Cascades. Storms are
expected to start out on the dry side today, then become wetter
late in the day. Lightning will be the main threat with these
storms both from the chance of striking a person and in starting
new fires. A Red Flag Warning remains in place today for areas in
northern Klamath County and into the Southern Oregon Cascades for
the lightning potential. Please see the RFWMFR for details. Gusty
outflow winds are also possible near thunderstorms today with
gusts of around 30 to 40 mph. Additionally, storms will bring a
potential for hail. There is very strong instablity through the
entire troposphere, even down to the surface (as less common thing
for our region), as well as strong lapse rates. The limiting
factor is storm organization, with shear remaining low, but this
only suggests large hail (a quarter or bigger) is less likely.
Accumulating hail between dime and pea sized is still possible in
larger amounts, especially stronger, more organized storm cells.
On Wednesday, as additional moisture moves into the region,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over a wider area, with the
highest chances from the Cascades east and Siskiyous south.
However, a slight chance for thunderstorms is also expected
across Jackson, eastern Douglas and portions of Josephine
Counties. The chances for thunderstorms and showers continues
Thursday and Friday as the low remains in place off the coast of
California. Storms are expected to trend wetter though and may
bring some heavy downpours.
By Saturday, confidence lowers in the details of the forecast as
models show more variability in the track of the low and whether
it will shift inland or remain off the coast. This is dependent
on the strength and track of an upper trough moving into western
Canada, Washington and possibly northern Oregon late Friday into
Saturday. Have kept chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for this period. Otherwise, expect a trend towards less
hot temperatures.
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, August 14, 2023...The
two big weather concerns for the forecast period will be the extreme
heat expected through late this week and the thunderstorm potential
also continuing through the week.
A very hot air mass will be over the region this week and several
days of 100+ degrees is anticipated west of the Cascades with mid to
upper 90s east of the Cascades. Although high temperatures will
trend "slightly" less hot compared to yesterday, still expect very
hot temperatures today. These unusually hot temperatures will
continue through Thursday. We aren't expecting critical RH/wind
conditions today as minimum RHs trend slightly higher, temperatures
trend slightly lower and monsoonal/tropical moisture increases in
the region...which leads us to the thunderstorm concerns...
There is a slight chance for some morning thunderstorm activity in
western Siskiyou, far southern Josephine and far southern Curry.
Then, this afternoon and evening expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, mainly from the Cascades east and Siskiyous south.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in southeast Jackson County
today. The favored area for scattered thunderstorms today continues
to be from the Fremont-Winema National Forest and westward into the
Cascades. A Red Flag Warning for abundant lightning on dry fuels
remains in effect for FWZ 617/623/624 for this afternoon and
evening.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible over a broader area on
Wednesday, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect covering
624/623/621/280/281/284. Additionally, have added western FWZ 285 to
the Fire Weather Watch, as models have trended higher on the
potential for scattered thunderstorms in western Modoc. West of the
Southern Oregon Cascades, a slight chance for thunderstorms is also
expected on Wednesday, including in FWZs 617, 620 and 622.
Storms will initially start out dry this morning then gradually
transition wetter late today and Wednesday. Thursday into the
weekend, the chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
continues. Despite storms transitioning to wet, strikes outside of
storm cores remain a concern. Gusty outflow winds are also a
concern, especially for today as storms may start out on the dry
side, then become wetter late in the day. Gusts of 30-40 mph will be
possible with any outflow winds. -CC
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for ORZ621-623-624.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ021>024-
026-028.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ025-027.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ027-030-031.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ617-623-624.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ028-029.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ080>082.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for CAZ280-281-284-285.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ084-085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday
for PZZ356-376.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 3:08 AM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 12 hr | |
| Aug 15, 3:08 AM PDT | Small Craft Advisory | MFR | 3 days | |
| Aug 15, 4:58 PM PDT | Special Weather Statement | MFR | 32 min |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2023Red Flag Warnings in California, 2023Every red flag warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.