High Wind Warning 5, NWS Medford, OR

519 
WWUS76 KMFR 112053
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1253 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

ORZ021-022-121200-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.230112T0300Z-230112T1500Z/
South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast-
Including the cities of Harbor, Gold Beach, Nesika Beach, Ophir, 
and Pistol River
1253 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Oregon Coast from Cape Blanco south to 
  Brookings. This impacts parts of Highway 101.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds can blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ081-ORZ026-121200-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T0000Z/
Central Siskiyou County-Jackson County-
Including the cities of Medford and Ashland
1253 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...In California, the Shasta Valley from Weed to north of 
  Montague. In Oregon, southeast Jackson County including the 
  southern end of the Rogue Valley from South Medford to Ashland 
  and all surrounding foothills.

* WHEN...Through 4 PM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... An isolated spot or two in the Shasta 
  Valley could see wind gusts to 65 mph, but confidence is not 
  high enough for a High Wind Warning. Winds may also continue to 
  be gusty into Friday.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

003 
WWUS76 KMFR 120246
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
646 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

CAZ081-121500-
/O.UPG.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KMFR.HW.W.0005.230112T0246Z-230113T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
646 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Central Siskiyou County, the Shasta Valley from Weed to
  north of Montague.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ORZ021-022-121500-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.230112T0300Z-230112T1500Z/
South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast-
Including the cities of Harbor, Gold Beach, Nesika Beach, Ophir, 
and Pistol River
646 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Oregon Coast from Cape Blanco south to 
  Brookings. This impacts parts of Highway 101.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds can blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ORZ026-121500-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T0000Z/
Jackson County-
Including the cities of Medford and Ashland
646 PM PST Wed Jan 11 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Jackson County including the southern end of 
  the Rogue Valley from South Medford to Ashland and all 
  surrounding foothills.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

597 
WWUS76 KMFR 121046
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
246 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

ORZ021-022-121500-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230112T1500Z/
South Central Oregon Coast-Curry County Coast-
Including the cities of Harbor, Gold Beach, Nesika Beach, Ophir, 
and Pistol River
246 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South to Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Oregon Coast from Cape Blanco south to 
  Brookings. This impacts parts of Highway 101.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds can blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ081-122330-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1800Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
246 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 
  65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Central Siskiyou County, the Shasta Valley from Weed to
  north of Montague. This includes Interstate 5.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ORZ026-122330-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1200Z/
Jackson County-
Including the cities of Medford and Ashland
246 AM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Jackson County including the southern end of 
  the Rogue Valley from South Medford to Ashland and all 
  surrounding foothills.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

087 
WWUS76 KMFR 122116
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
116 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

CAZ081-131200-
/O.EXB.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
116 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected
  in the southern Shasta Valley, and 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to
  45 mph in the central and northern Shasta Valley. 

* WHERE...The high wind warning is in effect for portions of the
  Shasta Valley south of Gazelle, including the city of Weed and
  portions of Interstate 5 and Highway 97. The Wind Advisory
  covers the rest of the Shasta Valley, including Grenada and
  Montague. 

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  Driving may become difficult, especially in high profile 
  vehicles.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ORZ026-131200-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1500Z/
Jackson County-
Including the cities of Medford and Ashland
116 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Jackson County including the southern end of 
  the Rogue Valley from South Medford to Ashland and all 
  surrounding foothills.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

985 
WWUS76 KMFR 130407
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
807 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

CAZ081-131500-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
807 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected in the southern Shasta Valley, and 20 to 25 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph in the central and northern Shasta Valley.

* WHERE...The high wind warning is in effect for portions of the 
  Shasta Valley south of Gazelle, including the city of Weed and 
  portions of Interstate 5 and Highway 97. The Wind Advisory 
  covers the rest of the Shasta Valley, including Grenada and 
  Montague.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Driving may become difficult, especially in high 
  profile vehicles.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-131500-
/O.EXB.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.230113T0900Z-230114T0000Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
807 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds becoming south 25 to 35 mph with gusts 
  up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...In California, Modoc County. In Oregon, Northern and
  Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County and Central and
  Eastern Lake County. This includes Highway 31 from Valley Falls
  to Summer Lake and the higher terrain including Winter Rim and
  the Warner Mountains.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

ORZ026-131500-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1500Z/
Jackson County-
Including the cities of Medford and Ashland
807 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Jackson County including the southern end of 
  the Rogue Valley from South Medford to Ashland and all 
  surrounding foothills.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

412 
WWUS76 KMFR 131502
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
702 AM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

ORZ026-131615-
/O.EXP.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T1500Z/
Jackson County-
Including the cities of Medford and Ashland
702 AM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM PST THIS MORNING...

Winds have lowered. However, breezy to gusty winds will linger 
into late this morning.



$$

CAZ081-132100-
/O.CON.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
702 AM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected in the southern Shasta Valley, and 20 to 25 mph with 
  gusts up to 45 mph in the central and northern Shasta Valley.

* WHERE...The high wind warning is in effect for portions of the 
  Shasta Valley south of Gazelle, including the city of Weed and 
  portions of Interstate 5 and Highway 97. The Wind Advisory 
  covers the rest of the Shasta Valley, including Grenada and 
  Montague.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Driving may become difficult, especially in high 
  profile vehicles.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-132315-
/O.CON.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230114T0000Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
702 AM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds becoming south 25 to 35 mph with gusts 
  up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...In California, Modoc County. In Oregon, Northern and 
  Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County and Central and 
  Eastern Lake County. This includes Highway 31 from Valley 
  Falls to Summer Lake and the higher terrain including Winter 
  Rim and the Warner Mountains.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM PST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

739 
WWUS76 KMFR 132051
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
1251 PM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

CAZ081-141200-
/O.EXP.KMFR.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-230113T2100Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230115T0000Z/
Central Siskiyou County-
1251 PM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Central Siskiyou County including I-5, Weed, Yreka and 
  Montague.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CAZ085-ORZ030-031-140600-
/O.EXT.KMFR.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230114T0600Z/
Modoc County-
Northern and Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County-
Central and Eastern Lake County-
1251 PM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds becoming south 25 to 35 mph with gusts 
  up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...In California, Modoc County. In Oregon, Northern and 
  Eastern Klamath County and Western Lake County and Central and 
  Eastern Lake County. This includes Highway 31 from Valley 
  Falls to Summer Lake and the higher terrain including Winter 
  Rim and the Warner Mountains.


* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* View the hazard area in detail at 
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?wfo=mfr

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/Medford

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
907 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2023

.DISCUSSION...Overall, the forecast is in good shape. Current
radar is showing some returns west of the Cascades and in Siskiyou
County, but most of this is light. We'll see a continued
diminishing trend in precipitation this evening and overnight as
low pressure shifts to the north, but still expect a focus due to
upslope flow in the Mt Shasta region and also due to orographic
lift in the SW Oregon coast ranges. Snow levels continue to be
fairly steady around 4000 feet give or take 500 feet and they'll
mostly remain around those levels into Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile, a warm front offshore will move onshore from southwest
to northeast on Wednesday. We expect some light precipitation to
accompany the front as it moves through, but again, the best
precipitation will be focused from Siskiyou County northwest to
the coast ranges in SW Oregon since forcing and lift will be
maximized in those locations. The precipitation forecast is tricky
in the valleys west of the Cascades because the prevailing flow
over the mountains is from the south and southeast. This
downslope flow is a notorious destroyer of precip in this part of
the world, especially here in Medford. Accordingly, PoPs and QPFs
are lower in those locations (not zero, but lower). Instead,
we'll likely get another bout of gusty winds. Models are showing a
fairly robust KMFR-KRDD pressure gradient on Wednesday peaking at
around -9 mb. This would be a significant wind storm if the upper
level winds were very strong. While models do show pretty good
850mb winds in the 40-50 kt range, mid-level 700 mb winds are not
quite as strong. As such, we are expecting advisory level (45-55
mph) winds in the S-SE oriented valleys (Rogue/Shasta), though
probably won't be quite as strong as the values seen with other
recent storms.

As the warm front lifts to the north, the snow level will rise to
6000-8000 feet Wednesday night into Thursday as the core of
another potent atmospheric river stalls near or just off the West
Coast. With such a strong AR indicated in the guidance, we might
be concerned about early January flooding. But the core of the AR
is oriented S-N and basically parallel to the coast. In addition,
a ridge will be amplifying to the east over the Great Basin/
Intermountain West and this will prevent much movement inland
through Thursday. As such, the best precip probabilities will be
focused along the coast and the prevailing southerlies will
continue to bring downsloping to the valleys west of the
Cascades. Models are showing 850 temps getting to +5-7C, which
could translate to highs in the 60s here in Medford -- a mild
January day is in store. However, there will still probably be
some gusty south to southeast winds. For the details on the
extended forecast see the previous discussion below. -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...11/00Z TAFs...With an active pattern with increasing
southerly winds into Wednesday morning, the coast will see MVFR
conditions on and off through the TAF period, inland from the coast
MVFR with higher terrain obstructions and mountain wave turbulence
is likely south of the state line, especially over the Mt Shasta
region and the Siskiyou mountains. North of the State line with see
higher ceilings, except for MVFR east of the Cascades, with areas of
low level wind shear, especially into Wednesday morning and
afternoon. -Sven

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PST Tuesday, January 10th 2023...The latest
surface analysis shows a surface low continuing to move north of the
waters tonight. The low will bring moderate to strong south winds
through this evening. Winds will diminish slightly and briefly later
this evening, then increasing again tonight as a surface front
approaches. This front is expected to stall just west of the outer
waters, and there's sufficient evidence to suggest we could be in
for along duration period of gale force winds through at least
Thursday night. At the same time a large west swell will move into
the waters Thursday afternoon, peaking out Thursday night. The
combination of wind driven seas and heavy swell will result in very
dangerous mix seas.

Conditions will finally improve Friday with south winds gradually
decreasing. Even if winds drop below gales, we could still be
dealing with very steep and hazardous seas due to the wind waves
transitioning to a fresh swell.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 236 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2023/

SHORT TERM...Through Thursday, January 12...Thunder has been
reported off the Del Norte County Coast, with numerous strikes
being recorded by observation equipment. In Curry County, only one
strike has been reported. More convective clouds remain offshore
heading in this direction and a slight chance of thunder remains
in the S. Oregon coastal forecast for the next six hours.

Precipitation amounts in South-central Siskiyou County have been
the heaviest in the region, with 0.1" to 0.5" being observed in
the last six hours. Elsewhere a combination of more scattered to
isolated showers and weak forcing has caused precipitation
amounts to be light, generally around or less than 0.1"; and even
then mostly just in the foothills and mountains.

Shower activity will continue to decrease through this evening,
but will not totally stop before another front approaches the
coast Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient will tighten and
winds will increase with this system and winds will be the main
weather impact. We have issued a high wind watch for the coast as
the south winds peak Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Models haven't shown much spread in wind speeds, so our confidence
is fairly good for the lower end criteria to be reached from Cape
Blanco South. Travel along highway 101 may be difficult due to
the winds, as well as causing some reduced visibility issues as
the wind drives the rain onshore. Along with the coastal winds, we
are expecting impactful winds in the southern Rogue and Shasta
Valleys too.

It is possible that winds in the Shasta Valley gust above 58 mph,
high wind warning speeds. However we do not see where these would
be frequent enough to warrant the warning. We also feel given the
onslaught of gusty winds in that area, that an advisory is
sufficient to highlight the possible difficult driving conditions
or ability for loose objects to be blown around. In a similar
sentiment, we chose not to issue a wind advisory for areas of
Josephine and Douglas County above 2000 feet because the impact to
communities is isolated.

As so many of the recent front have had, this one too will have
steering winds from the south, and so precipitation will be
focused across NorCal and the southern coast. Liquid amounts along
the coast tonight through Wednesday night are forecast to be
between 1" and 1.75". Snow levels tonight will hover between 3700
and 4200 feet, rising to 4000-4500 feet around mid-Wednesday
morning (~10 AM), then up to 5000-5500 feet in the afternoon. We
have kept the snow level lower in the Mt. Shasta area in the
afternoon, which deviates from the model data, because of some
moderate precipitation rates around 0.5"/hr of snowfall that we
believe will help to keep the cold air trapped in that region. A
winter weather advisory is out for areas above 3500 feet until 4
PM, then we issued a new winter weather advisory above for areas
above 4000 feet for this next system.

With the rising snow level, snow concerns decrease quickly late
Wednesday evening into Thursday. We do expect winds to stay
elevated in the Rogue and Shasta Valleys until early Thursday
morning though. Once the winds ease, it should be a more calm day,
very reminiscent of today.
-Miles

LONG TERM...Friday 1/13 through Tuesday 1/17...

The wet and windy pattern will continue throughout the long term
forecast period. The pattern that has set up over the Pacific
remains relatively consistent, with a large low spinning just
southwest of the Aleutians flinging system after system across the
Pacific and into the West Coast.

How each system affects southern Oregon and northern California will
depend on the track and intensity of each individual upper level
trough and associated surface low. There is a great deal of spread
across the ensemble suites, so it is very difficult, even
impossible, to nail down the details of any one system at this time.
That being said, we can expect the wet and windy pattern to
continue, with frontal systems passing every one to two days.

As the long term begins Friday, we will find our forecast area under
the influences of an atmospheric river, with a Pacific moisture
plume pushing plenty of precipitation into northern California and
the coast of southern Oregon for much of the weekend. This plume
will have a mostly southerly trajectory, and this will have
significant impact on where the bulk of precipitation will fall. The
coast, mainly Curry County, and Siskiyou County will see the bulk of
precipitation in our area, with the rest of the forecast area
downsloped and shadowed by the mountains. Snow levels should remain
above 5000 feet, so winter impacts will not be widepsread.

Additional fronts are expected through early next week, but there is
wide spread in the models, so the forecast will continue to carry a
general chance of precipitation through the rest of the forecast
term. Temperatures are expected to remain around normal for this time
of year. -BPN

AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail, except for MVFR
conditions in portions of the Umpqua Valley.

The next front will move northeast through the area today with
precipitation, gusty southerly winds, and areas of low level wind
shear through late this morning. It will also produce areas of
mountain obscuration and MVFR with precipitation mainly along the
southern Oregon coast and from the Siskiyou Mountains southward
across northern California. Freezing levels around 7000 feet msl are
expected to fall to 5000 feet msl tonight.

By early morning, should mid to upper level clouds clear enough, IFR
conditions in fog are possible in many of the West Side valleys.

BPN/DW

MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, January 10th 2023...The latest
surface analysis shows a surface low centered west of Port Orford
and around 65 nm from shore. This low will continue to move north
and move north of the waters tonight. The low will bring moderate to
strong south winds through this evening. Winds will diminish
slightly and briefly later this evening, then increasing again
tonight as a surface front approaches. This front is expected to
stall just west of the outer waters, and there's sufficient evidence
to suggest we could be in for along duration period of gale force
winds through at least Thursday night. At the same time a large west
swell will move into the waters Thursday afternoon, peaking out
Thursday night. The combination of wind driven seas and heavy swell
will result in very dangerous mix seas.

Conditions will finally improve Friday with south winds gradually
decreasing. Even if winds drop below gales, we could still be
dealing with very steep and hazardous seas due to the wind waves
transitioning to a fresh swell. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     ORZ026.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     for ORZ021-022.

     High Surf Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday above 4000 feet
     for CAZ080>083.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening
     through Thursday morning for PZZ356.

     High Surf Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-356.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

MAS/SBN/MCB/BPN/MAP