High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Medford, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
924 PM PST Fri Jan 13 2023

.DISCUSSION...Showers are continuing over southwest Oregon and
northern California this evening. There are no indications of any
significant changes to the current forecast snow levels and
precipitation through Saturday and Sunday.

The southerly winds associated with Saturday morning's system may
funnel into Shasta and Rogue Valleys, bringing a risk of strong
gusts to these areas. In addition, 700 mb winds in the High
Resolution Ensemble Forecast, HREF, also show gusty south winds
tomorrow across the East Side. A Wind Advisory will continue for
the Shasta Valley. Meanwhile, we will evaluate the need for
additional wind products (likely a Wind Advisory) for the southern
half of the Rouge Valley and East Side higher Terrain, especially
around the Winter Rim and Summer Lake Area.

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.AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs...VFR will likely continue for the majority
of the TAF period, but there could be areas of MVFR and terrain
obscuration during periods of rain both this evening and again
Saturday. Gusty south winds will also be a concern over high
terrain, across the East Side, and within the Shasta and Rogue
valleys Saturday. -BPN

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.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PST Friday, January 13th 2023...
A strong front will arrive late tonight and continue over the waters
through Saturday. It will produce very steep seas and south gales.
Very high seas are expected to peak Saturday evening. As the surface
low rides up the coast Saturday night through Sunday morning, Gales
will shift to the west. As a result, very steep west wind seas will
combine with residual shorter period south swell, creating very
hazardous chaotic seas through Sunday night.

Winds and high and steep seas will diminish late Sunday into Monday.
The next front is likely on Tuesday. -BPN/DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM PST Fri Jan 13 2023/

DISCUSSION...A series of storm systems will keep us active in the
short term...with abundant precipitation along the coast and
Siskiyou County. South west flow will be present through Sunday
morning...with gusty winds continuing across the Shasta Valley and
the east side. A wind advisory is in effect for these locations.
Please see www.weather.gov/medford for the latest information.
Snow levels will generally hover around 5000 feet through Saturday
afternoon...dropping to 4000 feet by Saturday night. The short
term models are in good agreement that there doesn't look to be
much of a significant break in precipitation through at least
Sunday morning. Given the fact there isn't a great break in the
precipitation...a winter weather advisory has been issued through
4 pm Saturday for persistent snow across south central Siskiyou
County...including the Mt Shasta Ski Park.

LONG TERM...Monday into next week

The forecast period remains active with more lows hitting the
California and Oregon coastline.  The latest round of guidance is
keeping Monday likely on the drier side. The probability of
precipitation is right around 50 percent and the QPF forecast is
generally under 0.10 inches for most of the region through the day
Monday.  If storms end up tracking a little farther south, it will
indeed be drier on Monday.

The flow finally appears to switch heading into Tuesday with the
upper level flow out of the west and Northwest. A warm front appears
to hit the region around the Tuesday morning to Tuesday evening time
frame.  This will result in rising snow levels up to 4500 feet on
Tuesday.  There could be snow impacts on the higher Cascades passes
above 4000 feet Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front is
anticipated to move through sometime Wednesday night.  The result
will be snow levels falling down to 2700 feet, although the bulk of
the snow will be diminishing into Thursday.  The probability of
precipitation diminishes into Thursday as high pressure likely
builds within the region.

After Thursday into next weekend, it looks like high pressure will
build across the region.  The NAEFS is predicting some stronger than
normal MSLP around Friday into next Sunday the 21st. This will
result in some quieter conditions for the region in addition to more
valley morning fog.

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday above 5000 feet
     for CAZ082.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST
     Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

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