Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
213 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Synoptic Overview: A weak synoptic pressure gradient is evident
over South Florida this afternoon as a stalled frontal system to
our north has temporarily reduced the influence of the maritime
High. This will result in a sea breeze driven regime through at
least Tuesday, with the Gulf breeze tending to be a bit more
dominant, as the weak gradient favors a westerly component. At
the mid-lvls the eastern US trough has created a weakness over our
area between the Central US ridge and the western Atlantic
ridge... creating a synoptically neutral setup (with regards to
forcing for ascent). Some low-amplitude shortwave energy may dig
down on Tuesday, perhaps tilting the setup to slightly
synoptically favorable for ascent.

Details: The main forecast concern through Tuesday will be
numerous showers and thunderstorms with threats for strong-
marginally severe winds, locally heavy rainfall/flooding and
frequent lightning. The convective parameter space is fairly
typical of mid-summer with very limited shear but fairly robust
instability (3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 900-1200 J/kg of DCAPE).
Given the steep low-lvl lapse rates and associated DCAPE, gusty
winds would be the main convective hazard with any storms,
although small hail can't be ruled out as temps aloft cool
slightly (but WB-zero heights remain prohibitively high). There
is also some hydro threat, particularly just inland of the east
coast, where outflow boundaries from storms developing over the
west/interior will likely interact with the somewhat pinned east
coast sea breeze. Storm motion to the east may increase somewhat
on Tuesday which may help limit the hydro threat (although anytime
thunderstorms impact the east coast metro there is at least some
low-end hydro threat).

We will continue to flirt with heat advisory conditions, and
expect highs generally in the mid 90s with peak heat indices
105-110 while overnight lows struggle to get into the 70s over the
east coast metro. Do suspect that the apparent criteria (for heat
advisories) will be exceeded at some locations on Tuesday,
however, don't have enough confidence in the duration or spatial
coverage of these conditions to issue an advisory at this time.

Regarding climate, (unofficially) July 2023 will be the warmest
month on record (in terms of average temperature) for both Naples
and Miami. There is a chance it ends up as the warmest July on
record for Fort Lauderdale but this will come down to the wire
(i.e. be dependent upon today's temperatures).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

The long term period will remain unsettled across South FL, with
precip chances slightly above climatological chances each day
through this upcoming weekend. The upper level pattern will largely
be defined by continued troughiness over the eastern US, and upper
level high pressure over the SW US and central Atlantic. Convection
will primarily be diurnally driven with the highest PoPs during the
afternoon and early evening each day, with a shortwave and surface
front approaching central FL late this week, which will further
enhance convection on Thursday and Friday this week.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the end of
the week and into the weekend, with high temps generally in the low
to mid 90s, and low temps ranging from the middle 70s around the
lake region, to upper 70s and lower 80s across the metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Temporary category restrictions and gusty and erratic outflow
winds in thunderstorms will be possible at the east coast
terminals through about 00-01Z, with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter. Winds will generally be sea-breeze driven this
afternoon, outside of thunderstorm outflows, with a trend towards
light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Moderate south to southeasterly winds will continue through early
this week, apart from the near-shore gulf waters where westerly
winds will be possible in the afternoons. Seas in both the
Atlantic and the Gulf will generally be 2 feet or less. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible each day over this week, which may
result in locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  93  79  92 /  40  70  40  60
West Kendall     77  94  77  94 /  30  70  40  70
Opa-Locka        77  93  78  92 /  40  70  40  60
Homestead        77  91  77  91 /  30  60  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  91  78  91 /  40  70  50  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  92  78  92 /  40  80  50  60
Pembroke Pines   77  93  78  92 /  40  70  40  60
West Palm Beach  76  93  77  92 /  40  70  50  60
Boca Raton       77  93  77  93 /  40  70  50  60
Naples           80  93  80  94 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ067-068-168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Carr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
011915-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
308 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...A Few Strong/Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon into Evening...
...Localized Flooding Possible For Metropolitan Areas...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the region today. Strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and localized flooding will be possible within the
strongest storms.

Excessive Rainfall: Slow moving thunderstorms capable of producing
heavy rainfall within short periods of time may allow for localized
flooding and ponding of roadways to occur over urbanized locations.

Wind: A few severe, damaging wind gusts may occur within the
strongest thunderstorms today.

Hail: Small (generally sub-severe) hail cannot be ruled out today.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts will be possible over the local
waters today in association with showers and thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Heat index values in excess of 105 degrees are possible the rest of
the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Thunderstorms are possible each day through the rest of the week and
through the upcoming weekend, with chances peaking during the
afternoon and early evening hours each day. Locally heavy rain may
lead to instances of street flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
413 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

FLZ073-074-173-174-312045-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
413 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Miami-Dade
County through 445 PM EDT...

At 413 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over The Redland, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead Miami Speedway, Homestead General Airport, The
Redland, Kendall, Florida City, Naranja, Princeton, Richmond West,
Country Walk, Leisure City, Zoo Miami, The Hammocks, The Crossings,
Goulds, Homestead Base, Richmond Heights, Inlikita, Three Lakes and
South Miami Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2567 8038 2543 8040 2543 8058 2567 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 024DEG 11KT 2553 8049

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi

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