Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
246 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

The set up for South FL the next couple of days features upper level
high pressure over the western Gulf and central Atlantic, and an
upper low over the Great Lakes region. Several weak impulses will
pass across the area today and tomorrow which may aid in some
convective development, however convection is expected to be
primarily diurnally driven peaking during the afternoon and early
evening hours each day. Morning 12Z MFL sounding showed weak
effective shear and lapse rates, however those lapse rates should
improve this afternoon during peak heating. HREF guidance from 12Z
shows MUCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg and DCAPE values around 1000
J/kg this afternoon. This suggests that a few stronger storms may be
possible today, with strong wind gusts the primary threat. Weak
steering flows will also present a localized flooding risk,
especially across the east coast metro. With high temps in the lower
90s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values will
be in triple digits and will hit criteria in some locations, but
not long enough and over a large enough portion of the counties to
warrant an adv today. Regardless though, those with heat
sensitivities will want to limit outdoor activities through early
this evening.

Convection dissipates this evening with partly cloudy skies expected
overnight. It'll be another very mild night with low temps in the
lower 70s around the lake, to upper 70s across the metro. The flow
becomes more southerly on Wednesday which will allow dew points to
tick up another degree or two. There's a better chance for heat adv
criteria to be met, although timing and coverage of convection will
play a role in how much of the area can actually achieve criteria
for at least a couple hours. Afternoon high temps will range from 90-
95 across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

The expanding high over the Western Atlantic and mid-to-upper level
ridging over the Gulf of Mexico extending into the Florida
Peninsula, Thursday and Friday should see a break from convective
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Moisture availability
will generally be around average, so there will remain the
possibility for a few pulse showers and storms caused by the sea
breezes and peak heating. However, these should be short lived due
to large scale subsidence. Low-level winds will continue to be out
of the S/SW both Thursday and Friday and thus it will become very
hot with the ridging, southerly winds and clearer skies.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s with dew points in
the 70s and thus heat indices have a good chance to reach advisory
criteria both days.

As we enter the weekend, long term guidance is hinting at our next
shortwave trough advecting through the area and providing a source
of lift for the hot, moist and unstable air. As a result, potential
for more widespread showers and storms that lead to heavy rain,
localized flooding, gusty winds and frequent lightning will be
possible this weekend. After that, early next week is much more
uncertain but active weather looks to continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

SCT thunderstorms this afternoon through early this evening may
result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds. Southerly
winds 10-15 kts becoming light and variable overnight. Additional
showers and storms are expected on Wednesday, mainly during the
afternoon into early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Generally benign conditions will be present through the end of the
week as high pressure remains in control. South to southwest winds 5-
15 kts through Friday. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered
thunderstorms possible each day which may result in locally
hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  92  79  92 /  20  40  10  20
West Kendall     76  94  77  94 /  10  40  10  20
Opa-Locka        76  93  78  93 /  20  40  10  20
Homestead        76  91  77  92 /  10  30  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  76  90  78  91 /  20  40  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  77  91  79  92 /  20  40  10  20
Pembroke Pines   76  92  78  93 /  30  40  10  20
West Palm Beach  75  92  77  93 /  20  40  10  30
Boca Raton       76  93  77  93 /  20  40  10  20
Naples           80  93  81  94 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
839 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
141245-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
839 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

...A Few Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon...
...Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flooding Possible...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Excessive Heat: Heat indices over 100 degrees are expected this
afternoon.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms are possible today. Heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning are
possible. The best chance for thunderstorms will be over the
interior and eastern metro.

Excessive Rainfall: Localized flooding and ponding of roadways
cannot be ruled out for locations that receive high rainfall rates
for longer durations.

Waterspouts: A few waterspouts cannot be ruled out over the Atlantic
waters and Lake Okeechobee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms remain possible each day, primarily during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Peak heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees this week with
localized values approaching 105-108 degrees by tomorrow, and
possibly continuing through the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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