Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
250 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Rest of today through tomorrow: The remnants of Arlene are pushing
into the Atlantic Ocean providing scattered convection across the
east coast and waters throughout the morning hours. Throughout the
afternoon, the mid-level trough, in addition to diurnal
convection, will continue to impact convective development on
southern FL into the evening hours. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will impact the region bringing the potential for
heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds. The strongest storms
will be in the late afternoon at the collision of the sea breeze
boundaries. The Flood Watch continues through the remainder of the
day due to potential for an additional few inches of rain on top
of the already saturated soil, easily flooded metro areas, and
nearly 2" PWATs in this morning's 12Z sounding. Overnight lows
will cool into the upper 60s to low 70s, accompanying a lull in
rain showers.

While unsettled weather will continue as we move into the new week
with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, the coverage will be
isolated to scattered showers - much more like a typical summer
pattern. The mid-level trough is on it's way out of the region and
with a more zonal flow, there will be drier air and much less
moisture. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible on
Monday, but with an only 40-60% chance and other than an occasional
downpour, only a few tenths max rain. Temperatures will begin to
rise with highs back in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Models continue to depict a longwave trough drifting across much of
the E CONUS, while a deep low moves into the extreme NW Atlantic. An
associated weakening sfc boundary will remains stretched southward
all the way into the Florida peninsula and possibly dissipating by
late Tuesday. As the boundary breaks up, a relatively drier air mass
will have the chance to filter across SoFlo and bring a short-lived
period of isolated to scattered coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Main driving forcing will be daytime heating and sea breeze
circulations while weak sfc winds prevails. But with PWATs lowering
to around 1.2 inches, concern for localized flooding will be low.

Latest long range solutions are starting to show better agreement
regarding a potential intrusion of deep tropical moisture across the
area as overall synoptic flow shifts to the SW by Thursday. This
will translate into moisture advection from the Gulf, with model
PWATs approaching or exceeding 2 inches. POPs increase into the 70-
80 percent range Thursday and Friday afternoon, with enhanced
conditions for strong storms Friday afternoon. This is due mainly to
a mid level trough migrating across the northern portions of the
peninsula, which may provide additional dynamic lifting for deep
convection to develop. Once this feature clears the area, POPs will
begin to gradually decrease through Sunday, but still remaining in
the 40-60 percent range each afternoon.

Temperature should remain warm with afternoon highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s, and morning lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the
eastern TAF sites after 19Z, while APF will experience periods of
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis under showers and storms through around 22Z.
Winds from the ESE around 10kt will shift ENE this evening when
convection will begin to wane. NW winds at APF will shift NE
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Seas of 2 feet or less will prevail the rest of the day into
Monday under a light to a moderate N/NE wind flow. Expect another
round of showers and storms into the early evening, particularly
over the Atlantic. Later on Monday and into the middle of next week,
an increasing northerly swell, potentially up to 6 feet, could
create hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

The risk of rip currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches
will increase early this week as a northerly swell builds over the
region. Astronomical high tides are a concern over the next few days
as minor coastal flooding is possible around the times of high tide
along the Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  88  74  87 /  40  50  10  50
West Kendall     70  90  72  89 /  40  50  10  50
Opa-Locka        72  88  73  88 /  40  50  10  50
Homestead        70  88  73  87 /  50  40  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  73  87  74  86 /  30  50  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  73  87  75  87 /  30  50  20  50
Pembroke Pines   72  88  73  88 /  30  50  10  50
West Palm Beach  72  86  73  86 /  30  60  20  60
Boca Raton       72  88  73  87 /  30  50  20  60
Naples           72  88  72  89 /  60  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ063-066>068-
     071>074-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...JAS
LONG TERM....17

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