Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
124 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

*Idalia strengthening and moving north through the eastern Gulf
 of Mexico*
*Tropical Storm Warning in effect - Gulf waters and coastal Collier
County*

All eyes are on Hurricane Idalia, which is currently moving
northward through the southeast Gulf of Mexico. While the center
is expected to remain well west of South Florida, there will still
be some hazards associated with the system. The following hazards
can be expected across South Florida in association with Idalia:

Coastal Flooding/Storm Surge - A wide fetch of strong winds in
association with a storm motion towards the north will support the
potential of 2-4 feet of storm surge along any given point (not the
entire coast) of coastal Collier County. These totals are subject to
change based on subtle changes in storm motion and intensity.

Flooding (excessive rainfall) - Repeated bouts of heavy tropical
downpours can be expected in association with showers and
thunderstorms that develop along the periphery of Idalia. In
general, 2-3 inches of rainfall can be expected through Wednesday,
with locally higher totals possible - particularly for western
portions of the CWFA.

Wind - Increasing south to southwest winds are forecast to ensue
through Thursday, with the strongest winds expected along the Gulf
coast and adjacent Gulf waters. A reasonable worst-case scenario
would result in tropical storm force winds across coastal Collier
County beginning later this morning into the afternoon. Areas along
the east coast and Atlantic waters could experience wind gusts up to
around 35 mph through the same time period.

Tornadoes - A low-end tornado threat is possible across South
Florida through early Thursday as outer bands from the system
move ashore.

The period of most impactful weather across South Florida in
association with Idalia will likely be realized between this
afternoon and Wednesday evening, with conditions gradually subsiding
and clearing by Thursday. For the latest information, please refer
to the Hurricane Local Statement (HLS).

One thing not to get lost in the shuffle for today is the heat.
With high temps in the lower 90s, dew points approaching 80, and
little relief from rainfall expected across the east coast metro,
heat indices will reach 105-110 through the rest of the
afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Miami-Dade, Broward,
and Palm Beach until 7 PM today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Overview: Forecast uncertainty in the extended remains fairly
high, with some of the potential synoptic evolutions offered by
the 00Z guidance suite being (for lack of a better word)
"unusual".

Thursday/Friday: The mid-lvl ridge which formed between Idalia and
Franklin will build northwestward into our area on Thursday, this
will temporarily lift Idalia's tropical moisture tail northward
focusing the best rain chances over northern portions of the area.
This northward push may be temporary though as high pressure
building north of the area may in turn force the moisture back south
as early as Friday. This would support higher rain chances on Friday
relative to Thursday, with storm motion generally from north to
south. As the ridge builds overhead, and lingering low-lvl tropical
moisture remains in place, excessive heat will be a concern
Thursday/Friday. The current forecast calls for Max ApparentTs 108-
114 on Thursday and 107-112 on Friday, so heat advisories will
likely be needed.

Saturday-Monday: Heading into the weekend and beyond, the forecast
evolution becomes uncertain as ridging over the Central/Eastern US
becomes the dominant feature around the region. Particularly
interesting is what will occur with Idalia at that point, as the
prevailing solution of previous cycles, that Idalia would be quickly
ushered eastward into the main belt of the mid-latitude westerlies
by the northern shortwave is coming into question. It is plausible
that Idalia is "left behind" by the trough and then begins to
initiate a clockwise loop in the western Atlantic around the
periphery of the aforementioned US ridge. It should be noted that at
this point Idalia will likely not be fully tropical having
interacted with a frontal system and UL jet over the SE US, with mid-
lvl dry air likely impinging on the circulation and limiting
convection. That being said some recovery of a warm core may be
possible in it lingers long enough in areas with high OHC (and
avoids Franklin's wake). Idalia's return trip to Florida still isn't
the most probable solution looking at the ensemble spread, but does
seem to have risen into the realm of being plausible.

In terms of sensible weather drier air does look to filter in, at
least initially, from the NE this weekend somewhat inhibiting PoPs
(although guidance is not in agreement on how quickly that drier air
arrives, i.e. Sat or Sun). Late in the forecast period, the
uncertain evolution of Idalia/Idalia's remnants becomes more
relevant so at this time kept PoPs near climo. In any case the N-NE
flow regime should at least keep us from requiring heat headlines
in this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

South/southeasterly winds for all TAF sites, with wind speeds up
to 15-25 kts as Idalia's bands move through the area. VCSH
conditions with some cig restrictions will be possible for East
Coast sites through most of the period, with some strong storms
possible over KPBI, KFXE & KFLL between 00Z and 03Z this evening.
VCTS and periods of MVFR/IFR conditions at APF through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Hurricane Idalia will bring dangerous winds and seas across the
local waters; particularly in the Gulf of Mexico where Tropical
Storm conditions are likely. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
for the Atlantic waters, Biscayne Bay, and Lake Okeechobee, with
Gale conditions possible on Wednesday. Conditions gradually
improve on Thursday with sub SCA winds and seas possible by late
Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Atlantic: A high risk of rip currents will remain through the next
several days for the Atlantic beaches.

Gulf: Dangerous beach conditions are expected along the Gulf coast
due to Idalia, including rip currents and high surf. The threat will
persist at local beaches through Thursday.

Coastal Flooding: As Idalia approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
the coastal flooding risk will increase over the Gulf coast, through
at least Thursday. Moderate to even locally major coastal flooding
will be possible during periods of high tide as increased onshore
flow combines with the upcoming perigean spring tides associated
with the full moon. Additionally the spring tides will create a
concern for minor coastal flooding on the east coast in the same
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Idalia will continue to move northward through the Eastern Gulf of
Mexico and into Northern Florida through the middle of this week -
per the latest official NHC forecast. This will allow for the PWAT
values to increase to 2.3 to 2.5 inches for the middle part of the
week, which is near the maximum PWAT values for this time of year
over South Florida. These high PWAT values will support heavy
rainfall with any showers and thunderstorms that develop across
South Florida through Wednesday. At this time, 1 to 3 inches are
possible over most areas except for the west coast metro areas of
South Florida where 2 to 4 inches are possible with locally higher
amounts through Wednesday. However, due to the ongoing drought
conditions over the west coast metro areas, it will take some time
for the grounds to become saturated; therefore, a flood watch will
not be necessary at this time across South Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  92  80  94 /  70  80  60  60
West Kendall     80  93  79  95 /  80  80  60  60
Opa-Locka        80  92  80  94 /  80  80  60  60
Homestead        80  91  79  93 /  70  80  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  80  94 /  80  70  50  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  93  80  95 /  80  70  50  60
Pembroke Pines   80  92  80  94 /  80  70  50  60
West Palm Beach  80  93  78  94 /  70  70  40  70
Boca Raton       81  93  80  95 /  80  70  50  70
Naples           81  90  82  92 /  90  90  80  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

     Storm Surge Watch for FLZ069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ069.

     Tropical Storm Watch for FLZ070.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ075.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     AMZ610-630-651-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-670.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
1200 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
301600-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1200 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions Through Thursday...
...A Few Tornadoes Possible Within Outer Bands Of Idalia...
...Heat Advisory Today For The East Coast...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The National Hurricane Center is currently issuing advisories for
Hurricane Idalia. Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement
(HLS) for detailed threat and impact information over the coming
days. Additionally you can visit
www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The National Hurricane Center is currently issuing advisories for
Tropical Storm Idalia. Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement
(HLS) for detailed threat and impact information over the coming
days. Additionally you can visit
www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl for more information.

Peak heat indices may exceed 110 degrees Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

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