Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
309 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...
...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening with
Locally Heavy Rainfall...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Another active afternoon and evening in South Florida, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the
interior and east coast metro. While conditions are not as favorable
as yesterday, there is still potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop. The 12Z MFL sounding this morning showed
sufficient shear (20kts) and instability (forecast >2000 MLCAPE), as
well as cool mid level temps (-10.5C at 500mb, 13.4kft FZL) courtesy
of an upper level trough that stretches from the Southeast US across
the FL Peninsula. Storm motions today will be quiet slow, especially
along the east coast metro, so the primary threat with any storms
today will be heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding.
Additionally, the strongest storms may be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and small hail. Convective activity will
gradually taper off through the evening, but there will still be
some showers and a thunderstorms or two around through midnight.

On Friday, the broad surface low over South FL will drift into the
western Atlantic and will likely begin to intensify as it sits just
downstream of the aforementioned upper level trough. With continued
southwesterly flow, modeled PWATs are holding in the 1.6-1.8 inch
range into Friday afternoon which will (once again) support an
active afternoon and evening of showers and thunderstorms. Guidance
was showing a significant cool-down of upper level temps (-11 to -13
C) for Friday earlier this week but this appears to have backed off,
and the cooler temps will be displaced significantly to the north.
This should limit the extent of strong thunderstorms, although a few
still could become strong with small hail and gusty winds,
especially around the Lake Okeechobee region.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s for interior areas and low-mid 70s
for coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Heading into the weekend, the upper level cutoff low likely will
linger across the Southeast and keep South Florida in a
westerly-southwesterly regime through the weekend while the
surface low deepens across the western Atlantic waters off the
coast of Georgia. This will favor scattered afternoon sea breeze
driven showers and thunderstorms across portions of the interior
and eastern metro areas each day. Some guidance is showing a chance
for mid-upper level dry air to reach the area on Saturday and Sunday
and this could potentially limit coverage somewhat although it seems
there will be enough lower-level moisture to support at least a few
showers and thunderstorms each day, especially on Saturday.

For the new work-week, the surface low will move into the southeast
states with the upper level feature beginning to weaken and push
eastward into the open Atlantic by late Monday. Much lower rain
chances expected for Monday afternoon as some drier air finally
moves in, although there will likely still be enough moisture to
support a few sea - breeze driven thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening. Tuesday should be mainly dry across the area as a
reinforcing shot of dry air filters in behind the departing upper
level feature.

Temperatures across the area will remain hot through the long term
period. Highs will likely be reaching the lower 90s and heat indices
in the upper 90s each day. The evenings will remain warm, with lows
dropping to the low 70s along the East coast and mid 60s in the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring
periods of reduced vis and low cigs this afternoon and early
evening, primarily to east coast terminals. SSW to SSE flow around
10 kt through the evening, with a more westerly component over
APF with Gulf breezes. After 02Z, thunderstorm threat lowers, and
winds become light and variable. Another round of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected on Friday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

South to southwesterly flow will prevail across Atlantic waters
today with northwesterly flow across Gulf waters. Low seas will
dominate outside of the Gulf Stream, with 2-3 feet within the
current. Atlantic seas will be on the rise, to potentially hazardous
levels, as a swell builds in from the north. Showers and storms
expected each day through the weekend, which may result in locally
hazardous seas and winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Onshore flow will result in a moderate rip current risk for the
Atlantic beaches today. Rip current risk will increase the next
couple of days across Palm Beach County beaches due to an increasing
NE swell, with moderate rip risks along the other Atlantic beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  87  72  87 /  60  90  60  50
West Kendall     70  88  69  88 /  50  80  60  50
Opa-Locka        71  88  71  87 /  60  90  60  50
Homestead        71  87  70  87 /  60  80  70  50
Fort Lauderdale  73  86  71  85 /  70  90  70  50
N Ft Lauderdale  73  87  71  86 /  60  80  70  50
Pembroke Pines   71  88  71  87 /  60  90  60  50
West Palm Beach  70  86  69  86 /  60  90  60  50
Boca Raton       72  87  70  87 /  60  90  70  50
Naples           71  87  70  87 /  60  80  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
924 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
261330-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
924 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon & Evening...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for All Atlantic Beaches...

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
this afternoon and evening across interior and eastern portions of
the area. The main hazards will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, small hail, and lightning.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall within showers and thunderstorms could lead
to localized flooding in the low lying and poor drainage areas
today.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An elevated risk of rip currents is likely to continue for the rest
of this week, mainly along the Palm Beaches. The risk of rip
currents will increase across all east coast beaches heading into
the upcoming holiday weekend.

Showers and storms will remain fairly widespread through the end of
the week. Periods of heavy rain will be possible and could lead to
localized flooding concerns especially across the east coast metro
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
301 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

FLZ066-067-070-251945-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
301 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Collier, southeastern Hendry and western Palm Beach Counties through
345 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud near Hendry
Correctional, or 19 miles east of Immokalee, moving northeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and penny size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hendry Correctional and Big Cypress Seminole Reservation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2616 8099 2628 8134 2660 8114 2648 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 212DEG 9KT 2633 8112

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

FLZ067-068-168-251945-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
306 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Palm Beach
County through 345 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over
Loxahatchee NWR, or 10 miles southwest of Wellington, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and half inch
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Wellington, Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach, Palm
Springs, Haverhill, Cloud Lake, Loxahatchee NWR, Palm Beach
International Airport, Golden Lakes, Loxahatchee Groves, Lion Country
Safari Park, Gun Club Estates, Royal Palm Estates, Lake Belvedere
Estates, The Acreage, Lake Clarke Shores, Glen Ridge, Aberdeen and
Plantation Mobile Home Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2640 8028 2646 8050 2683 8037 2668 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 211DEG 13KT 2653 8035

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
348 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

FLZ066-067-252030-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
348 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Hendry
and west central Palm Beach Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 8 miles
southeast of Devils Garden, or 10 miles south of Montura, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Montura and Devils Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2637 8083 2641 8122 2670 8126 2671 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 182DEG 9KT 2651 8104

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
356 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

FLZ063-066-252030-
Hendry FL-Glades FL-
356 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hendry
and southwestern Glades Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a landspout over Labelle,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Labelle, Port La Belle, Ortona and Muse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy
shelter until this storm passes. Open shelters found in parks,
beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2698 8144 2682 8120 2664 8141 2674 8157
      2675 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 216DEG 11KT 2676 8145

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
400 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

FLZ067-068-168-252045-
Coastal Palm Beach County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
400 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Palm Beach
County through 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud over Lion
Country Safari Park, or 8 miles northwest of Wellington. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and nickel size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach, Boynton Beach, Wellington, Jupiter, Palm Beach
Gardens, Lake Worth, Riviera Beach, Belle Glade, Palm Beach, Pahokee,
South Bay, Ocean Ridge, Canal Point, Greenacres, Royal Palm Beach,
Palm Springs, North Palm Beach, Lantana, Lake Park and Atlantis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2680 8003 2653 8005 2661 8054 2671 8077
      2696 8061 2696 8014 2697 8014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 230DEG 2KT 2671 8037

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
402 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

FLZ063-252030-
Glades FL-
402 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Glades
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 402 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a landspout near Brighton
Seminole Reservation, or 8 miles west of Buckhead Ridge. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and penny size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeport, Buckhead Ridge, Brighton Seminole Reservation and Indian
Prairie Canal Mouth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy
shelter until this storm passes. Open shelters found in parks,
beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2720 8094 2719 8091 2717 8090 2717 8088
      2714 8087 2720 8083 2718 8080 2715 8079
      2697 8095 2695 8100 2690 8100 2688 8102
      2703 8131 2703 8127 2712 8127 2712 8117
      2721 8117 2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 206DEG 3KT 2712 8103

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RAG