Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
135 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

Mainly a quiet morning so far weather-wise, then another round of
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is expected for this
afternoon. Sea breeze boundaries will again combine with a
lingering mid level trough over the area to become focal points
for deep convection. General flow will shift to the SSW, with
greater chances of rain over the eastern half of SoFlo.

Temperatures this afternoon will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the region, and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

Today's weather pattern does not change much from yesterday.
While the mid-level trough moves further and dig a bit deeper over
the Florida Peninsula, a west-southwesterly flow will continues
to dominate. Similar to yesterday, moisture (PWATs ~1.3-1.5) and
instability are not in large supply. However, models are
indicating there will be plenty for afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the eastern
counties, especially PB and Broward (30-50%). The morning 12Z
sounding will give a better look at the atmospheric conditions, as
well as growing confidence in the day's weather outlook.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain warm as they will rise
into the upper 80s into the lower 90s across the region. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s (interior) to low 70s (coastal &
eastern metro).

On Friday, the trough continues it's progression eastward as it digs
deeper along the southeastward coast into the Atlantic. With this
mid-level activity and a surface frontal boundary, west-
southwesterly flow continues. Therefore, another similar day fueled
by westerly steering flow and the sea breezes - scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Best chances will be in the interior and eastern
metro areas (30-50% PoPs). Looking at the current model outlooks,
with higher PWATs (1.6-1.9") and QPF, there is potential for more
rain totals and heavier showers. Temperatures do not look like they
will vary much from today - afternoon highs in the upper 80s & low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

Heading into the upcoming weekend, South Florida will be located
in the middle of an exiting mid level trough moving into the
western Atlantic and a mid level ridge building in from the Gulf
of Mexico. Wind flow at the surface will begin to shift back to
more of an easterly flow, however, it will be rather light. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will be driven by the sea breezes with
the highest chances remaining over the interior sections where the
sea breezes will collide and interact with each other. High
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will generally range from the
upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across interior
and western sections.

For the early portion of next week, a mid level trough will dig down
across the Eastern Seaboard. This will cause the ridge of high
pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico to flatten and push
farther to the south. This will gradually shift the mid level
steering flow to a west southwesterly direction as the early
portion of the week progresses. At the surface, a frontal boundary
will move through the Southeast towards the Gulf coast and
Northern Florida. The latest model guidance continues to show this
frontal boundary pushing farther south into the Florida Peninsula
before stalling it out over Central Florida heading into Monday
and Tuesday. At the same time, deep tropical moisture will be
working into South Florida as a light to moderate east
southeasterly wind flow remains in place. While the exact details
still remain uncertain, these factors may provide the extra lift
and instability needed for higher shower and thunderstorm chances
during this time frame. The latest forecast takes a blend of the
forecast models and increases the chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday area wide. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures
early next week will generally range from upper 80s across the
east coast metro areas to the lower 90s across the interior
portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023

VFR prevails at all terminals through around 19-20Z, then another
round of late afternoon scattered storms may bring periods of
MVFR/IFR vis/cigs, especially over the Atlantic terminals.
Expect generally SSE winds around 10kt, except westerly onshore
flow over APF through around 00Z, then back to light and variable
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

Seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the end of the week
as modest SW flow continues. Occasionally, rough seas are possible
due to showers and thunderstorm activity each day. However,
overall conditions will be rather benign outside of localized
activity.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

There is a low risk of rip currents for the Palm Beach County
beaches today. This will likely last through the remainder of the
week. There is a chance for moderate rip currents in Palm Beach
and Broward County beaches by mid-weekend. Otherwise, no other
beach hazards at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  50
West Kendall     72  90  72  90 /  20  60  30  50
Opa-Locka        74  90  74  89 /  30  60  30  50
Homestead        72  88  72  88 /  20  50  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  74  87 /  40  60  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  75  88  74  87 /  40  60  40  50
Pembroke Pines   74  90  74  89 /  30  60  40  50
West Palm Beach  73  88  73  88 /  40  60  40  50
Boca Raton       74  89  74  89 /  40  60  40  50
Naples           74  90  74  89 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
403 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
190815-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
403 AM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...Scattered Thunderstorms for Interior and East Coast...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly over
the interior and east coast through this afternoon and evening. The
strongest thunderstorms could contain heavy downpours and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible over South Florida
through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

The threat of rip currents will begin to increase mainly over
the Palm Beach and Broward County Beaches this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
157 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023

FLZ073-074-173-181830-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
157 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 230 PM EDT...

At 157 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over The Hammocks, or near Kendall, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Kendall, Doral, Pinecrest,
Sweetwater, West Miami, Westchester, Glenvar Heights, Richmond West,
Fountainbleau, Richmond Heights, Country Walk, Kendale Lakes,
University Of Miami, Zoo Miami, The Hammocks, Coconut Grove and Coral
Terrace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2559 8043 2572 8056 2586 8044 2572 8022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 235DEG 12KT 2569 8044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hadi

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