Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
303 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

The mid-level trough will continue to deepen and shift over the SE
CONUS today and tomorrow and with adequate moisture in place there
is expected to be some scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
region today. The main focus for this will be in the eastern half of
the CWA as general WSW flow dominates, especially Palm Beach and
Broward counties plus the lake region. CAPE values for the area
based on the 12Z sounding are about 2000 J/kg and PWATs are around
1.6-1.7 inches. With energy from the digging trough, this will be
enough to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms in addition to
any sea breeze interactions. However, drier air is present aloft and
could suppress thunderstorms or limit their strength this afternoon
and evening. Main hazards to watch for will be heavy downpours and
gusty winds from thunderstorms, though small hail and even a
tornado, cannot be ruled out along interactions with the sea
breeze. Convection will then diminish quickly this evening
especially after sunset especially over land areas but may linger
a little longer over the waters.

For Thursday, a similar setup will take place except that the
aforementioned mid-level trough will be more situated over the
Florida Peninsula. The depth of the moist layer will still be pretty
shallow along with the dry air aloft again limiting the potential
strength of convection, but overall there will still be enough
instability and moisture to support the development of a few showers
and storms particularly along the sea breezes. General SW/WSW flow
will remain in place as well, leading to highest shower and
thunderstorm chances over Palm Beach and Broward counties and the
lake region. High temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low
90s across South Florida today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

For the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend, the
latest ensembles show a deeper trough digging into the Eastern
Seaboard and diving southward through the Southeastern portion of
the country. At the surface, the associated frontal boundary will
push through the Deep South once again and into the Florida Peninsula.
This will help to keep the west southwesterly steering flow in place
through the upcoming weekend. As the sea breezes develop and push
inland, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop with the
highest chances remaining over the Lake Okeechobee region as well
as the east coast metro areas. High temperatures will generally
remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the end of the week and
into the first part of the weekend.

Uncertainty remains high towards the second half of the weekend and
into early next week as the latest guidance continues to push the
front closer to the region before stalling it out just to the north.
While the exact details remain uncertain, if these trends continue,
this may help to enhance convection chances as the front gets closer
to South Florida later in the weekend and into early next week. The
latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models increasing the
chances of shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior and
east coast metro areas during this time frame. This will continue
to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Mostly VFR is expected for the next 24 hours, but VCTS and VCSH
go into effect this afternoon. MVFR will be possible with
convection as well as TEMPOs for lower ceilings later today.
Winds will be primarily out of the WSW but east coast sites will
see a shift to the SSE with the sea breeze. Convection will
dissipate after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Seas of 2ft or less are expected through the end of the week as
modest SW flow continues. Occasionally rough seas are possible due
to shower and thunderstorm activity each day, but overall conditions
will be rather benign outside of localized showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the Palm Beaches. This
could last into the end of the week but besides that there are no
other beach hazards at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  90  75  89 /  10  30  30  50
West Kendall     70  92  71  91 /   0  30  30  50
Opa-Locka        72  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  50
Homestead        70  89  72  88 /   0  20  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  73  88  74  87 /  10  40  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  73  89  74  88 /  10  40  40  50
Pembroke Pines   73  91  74  90 /  10  30  40  50
West Palm Beach  71  90  72  88 /  20  50  40  50
Boca Raton       72  90  73  89 /  20  40  40  50
Naples           74  88  74  90 /   0  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Redman

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