Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
333 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...New LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

A stalled frontal boundary over Central Florida lingers for another
day. South Florida remains in the warm, moist airmass to the south
of the boundary which will support another day of higher convective
coverage. A pocket of colder air aloft will again mean that strong
storms are possible again today, particularly over northern portions
of South Florida including the Lake Okeechobee region. The lack of a
dominant steering flow will mean that storm motion will be weak with
a persistent risk of excessive rainfall continuing into today. Areas
that have seen antecedent rainfall will need to be monitored for
saturation and potential flooding, particularly urbanized and poorly
drained areas.

A developing area of low pressure aloft off the Carolina coast
will be the main synoptic scale feature of interest to close out
the work week. The potential development of an accompanying
surface low (Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen) could help
consolidate moisture away from southern Florida for the weekend
which could help lower shower and thunderstorm chances back to
more towards average for this time of year for Friday. Even with
the potential reduction in rain chances, the cooler air aloft
could still persist which could permit some strong convection
again on Friday.

Temperatures will cool off, relatively speaking, with mid 80s to
lower 90s for maximums and 70s for overnight lows, though some upper
60s are possible inland. The extra cloud cover will also help heat
index values remain below 105 today and below 100 on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

The long term period will start off with robust subtropical
ridging over the South-Central U.S., while troughing persists
across the eastern seaboard associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone 16. While an influx of drier air is expected to push in
Friday night, a resurgence of higher moisture levels is
anticipated for Saturday. This will be facilitated by a shift to
southerly winds in the mid and upper atmosphere as PTC 16 lifts
north into the Mid-Atlantic, and troughing drags down across the
eastern Gulf. Consequently, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
are forecast to rise to 70-80% for Saturday and Sunday across
South Florida.

As we transition into next week, the subtropical ridge is
projected to weaken, diminishing the pronounced troughing over our
region. Nonetheless, tropical moisture will likely persist, owing
to sustained southerly flow at the mid-levels, which implies
near-normal rainfall probabilities (50-60% PoPs) for the season.
The convective activity is likely to be driven more by mesoscale
factors such a sea-breezes. Temperature-wise, highs are expected
to hover between the upper 80s and low 90s across the area, with
overnight lows maintaining in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Intermittent periods of sub-VFR as showers and thunderstorms could
impact terminals through the period, particularly in the afternoon
and evening. Light wind flow will make for a tricky, low-confidence
wind forecast that will be heavily dependent on sea breezes and
other boundaries for direction both today and tomorrow. Short-
fused AMDs will likely be necessary for IFR/LIFR at directly-
impacted terminals. after a reduced range of 50-60% on Friday and
Saturday due to the drier air mass

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

A moderate easterly wind regime is anticipated to prevail today,
with wave heights forecast to remain generally at or below 3 feet.
The moderate winds will gradually transition to out of the
northeast on Friday and over the weekend, with northerly swell
building. This may result in hazardous conditions across the
Atlantic waters off Palm Beach and Broward Counties as seas build
to 5 to 7 feet on Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible through the weekend, and may
result in locally hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

A High Risk of Rip Currents continues for the Palm Beaches today
with a moderate risk for the Broward beaches. An elevated risk of
rip currents is likely to persist for the Atlantic beaches through
Friday and over the weekend as east to northeast winds persist and
a northerly swell builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  88  75  87 /  50  50  40  50
West Kendall     72  89  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Opa-Locka        74  89  74  88 /  50  50  40  50
Homestead        73  88  73  87 /  40  50  50  50
Fort Lauderdale  74  87  75  87 /  60  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  74  88  75  87 /  50  50  40  50
Pembroke Pines   74  88  74  87 /  50  50  40  50
West Palm Beach  73  87  74  87 /  40  40  30  50
Boca Raton       74  88  75  88 /  40  50  40  50
Naples           74  91  74  89 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...RAG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
522 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

FLZ071>074-212200-
Inland Broward County FL-Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
522 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
and southern Broward Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 8 miles
south of Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami Canal, or 17 miles
west of Pembroke Pines, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Weston, Doral, Hialeah Gardens,
Medley, Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27, Pennsuco, Mile Marker 30 On
Alligator Alley, Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami Canal,
Intersection Krome And U.S. 27, and East Toll Gate On Alligator
Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2574 8072 2612 8082 2621 8039 2583 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 261DEG 13KT 2602 8063

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWC