High Surf Advisory 6, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Some scattered showers may form over the next couple hours with
the help of some boundary collisions over Miami-Dade, but this
activity should quickly dissipate over land by late tonight.
Overall not much change was needed with the near-term forecast.
Made some minor adjustments with PoPs and Sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

It's a not-so-spooky Halloween for South Florida, with partly
sunny skies and temperatures in the 80s across much of South FL.
This morning's sounding showed ongoing moistening of the
atmospheric column thanks to an area of low pressure located over
the western Atlantic, which will help support the development of
a few isolated showers and possibly a rogue thunderstorm or two
this afternoon. Coverage will favor the local Atlantic waters, but
activity could also develop along the immediate southeast coast
if the sea breeze manages to push in. Otherwise, generally
northerly flow and dry, warm conditions should prevail this
afternoon.

Surface analysis shows a cold front currently draped across the
Florida Panhandle region, which is expected to gradually approach
our area tomorrow. Models show the front losing upper-level support
as it moves southward, but enough moisture should remain ahead of
this boundary for a few isolated showers to be possible. The
pressure gradient will tighten as the front approaches, with
northerly winds becoming breezy and gusty tomorrow, with sustained
wind speeds 10-15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts possible.

Temperatures today will reach the upper 80s and even touch the 90s
briefly before dropping to the lower 70s along the coasts and the
upper 60s over the interior overnight. Tomorrow, milder daytime
temperatures with highs in the mid 80s along the coasts and upper
70s over the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

A weakening cold front will approach the southern tip of the Florida
Peninsula Wednesday night into Thursday in combination with
surface high pressure amplifying over the northeast states. There
will also be several positive vorticity impulses or small areas of
low pressure in the vicinity of our area. In return, an
anticyclonic circulation will position itself in the sfc-850mb
layer over the Mid-Atlantic region and allow for increasingly
gusty winds Wednesday night through Thursday. Winds will still
remain elevated on Friday, but these stronger winds should weaken
and taper off over the weekend.

In terms of rain chances, moisture will be shallow at least until
the weekend with minimal forcing and gusty NE winds, so shower
chances peak around 40% along the east coast for Thursday and
decrease further inland. Once the frontal boundary passes, precip
chances fall to 20-30% on Friday over far SE Florida with near-
zero chances elsewhere. Over the weekend, deeper layer moisture is
anticipated to return but there will still not be much forcing.
Thus, precip chances for the entire region will be between 20-40%,
but largely 20-30% after Saturday and into early next week.

Temperatures will be below average on Thursday near 80 along the
east coast and low 80s for the interior and west coast. After that,
every other day will see temperatures climb back into the mid to
upper 80s across South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

SCT showers may impact Miami-Dade terminals over the next couple
of hours which may result in brief restrictions. Light N/NW winds
overnight. Cold front crosses the area on Wednesday and as
pressure gradient tightens N/NE winds will be breezy, with gusts
of 20-30 kts possible beginning mid morning and lasting through
the remainder of the TAF period. Some isolated showers are
possible along the east coast late in the afternoon and early
evening, but chances are too low for any mention at this point.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

Marine conditions will remain generally benign today, then gradually
deteriorate on Wednesday as winds and seas increase behind a cold
front frontal passage and strong high pressure builds across the
west Atlantic. Wind speeds may reach gale criteria by late Wednesday
and Thursday. Locally, elevated seas and waves will still be
possible in and around shower activity.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1234 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents exists for all Atlantic beaches
today. However, conditions may deteriorate on Wednesday as breezy
onshore winds return with the passage of a cold front. High surf may
also pose a risk along the Atlantic beaches at that time.

The risk of minor coastal flooding will continue through midweek
thanks to the enhanced astronomical tides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  85  71  79 /  20  10  50  20
West Kendall     69  86  68  80 /  20  10  40  20
Opa-Locka        71  85  70  80 /  20  10  40  20
Homestead        70  85  70  79 /  20  10  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  71  83  70  78 /  20  20  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  71  84  70  79 /  20  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   70  85  69  80 /  20  20  40  20
West Palm Beach  69  82  68  78 /  10  20  30  10
Boca Raton       70  84  70  80 /  10  20  40  20
Naples           68  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ630.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF

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