Freeze Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
648 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

A strong cold front is presently sweeping through the region.
This feature is accompanied by strong and gusty winds out of the
north/northwest. This front is primarily characterized by a
significant influx of cold air, allowing for the acceleration of
cold air advection spanning the length of Florida. Perhaps
unsurprisingly, low temperatures well below typical norms will be
observed early this morning. The projected minimum temperatures
for Broward, Miami Dade, and Collier Counties will generally range
from 44-48 degrees Fahrenheit, with the warmer temperatures being
closer to the coast.

For Palm Beach, Glades, and Hendry Counties, low temperatures
should range from 38 to 43 degrees Fahrenheit (warmer over metro
locations). The anomalously cold and dry airmass will preclude any
rainfall from developing, and temperatures may not exceed much
more than 60 degrees Fahrenheit in many locations this afternoon.
During the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday, clear skies
and weaker winds will result in a decrease in temperatures over
South Florida, with minimum values projected to range between the
low/mid-30s to around 40 degrees Fahrenheit for most of the area.
This will allow for frost to accumulate over the interior region,
which has prompted a frost advisory for these commensurate
interior counties. Additionally, regions located west of Lake
Okeechobee may experience temperatures at or just below freezing.
With this in mind, a Freeze Watch will likely be issued, and a
Freeze Warning cannot be ruled out depending on how short- res
guidance trends today. The metropolitan areas situated along the
eastern coast will experience minimum temperatures in the range of
upper-30s to lower-40s degrees Fahrenheit.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

The persistence of dry conditions through the remainder of this forecast
period is expected to result from the establishment of an anticyclonic
circulation (Caribbean high) and the return of predominantly
zonal flow. Stable atmospheric conditions, characterized by light
winds, mostly clear skies, and mild temperatures, will be the
overall trend for the week.

To commence the week, temperatures will return to the normal
range before a gradual warming trend, with maximum temperatures
reaching the upper 70s and low 80s by mid-week for the majority of
the region. By Wednesday and Thursday, southerly winds may
further increase temperatures, bringing the interior and
southwestern regions of Florida into the mid-80s while afternoon
high temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s should persist
elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

VFR through the period with a gusty northwesterly wind today
becoming lighter this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

A strong, well-defined cold front is progressing through the
region, which is allowing for hazardous marine conditions to
develop. As this system moves through the region, winds will be
gusty and may approach or exceed gale criteria for some locations,
particularly for portions of near/offshore waters of Palm Beach
closer to the low pressure center. The strong, persistent fetch of
winds will also lead to elevated seas, which may reach up to 7-9
feet, again highest wave heights will likely be realized over the
northern waters adjacent to Palm Beach County.

Hazardous conditions remain for the Atlantic waters Sunday, but
will taper off by the beginning of the work week as a ridge of
high pressure builds in from the northwest. By Monday, marine
conditions will be relatively benign, with slightly choppy seas up
to around 3-4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

A high risk for rip currents is present for the Gulf beaches through
early Sunday. A moderate risk is expected for the Atlantic
beaches, which may experience a delay in the escalation of such
conditions until the increasing surf and swell start impacting the
coast, which will likely ensue later this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

An area of high pressure is expected to take hold over the region
from the north today, bringing with it a substantially drier air
mass over South Florida. Minimum relative humidity values may fall
to or below critical levels across certain areas this afternoon.
This will be accompanied by northwesterly winds with speeds
ranging between 10 and 15 mph. On Sunday, while the northwesterly
winds will decrease, the minimum relative humidity values are
forecasted to remain at or below critical levels across a majority
of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            63  42  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     63  36  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        62  39  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        63  38  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  61  42  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  59  41  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   61  39  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  58  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       60  39  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           61  40  64  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-
     066>068-168.

     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for FLZ063-066-067-
     070-071.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ069.

     Fire Weather Watch from noon EST today through this evening for
     FLZ072-074-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-651.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday
     for AMZ670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG

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