Flood Watch 2, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1257 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening with
Locally Heavy Rainfall...

No major changes to the near term grids this morning. Today is
starting off with mostly clear skies across South Florida, but
that will quickly change as we head into the afternoon, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing,
primarily across the interior and east coast. The 12Z MFL
sounding shows decent potential for strong to severe storms, as
temps have cooled aloft (-11C at 500mb, <14kft FZL) with the
upper level trough moving over the FL peninsula. Favorable
instability is expected, with forecast MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg and
steep mid level lapse rates. Sufficient bulk shear will be in
place, around 20-30kts, primarily driven by strong winds aloft,
as Sfc-3km winds are weak. Storms are expected to initiate along
converging boundaries over the interior and western edge of the
east coast metro, and then slowly drift east, with activity
tapering off in the evening. Storms will be capable of producing
damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Due to the very
slow storm motion, there is the potential for localized flooding
with any storm. Isolated pockets of 4-6 inches of rainfall are not
out of the question today, but generally expecting a more
widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall for the areas that see storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

A weak surface low remains over central Florida this morning with an
associated stationary boundary across Northern Florida. This system
will push southeastward towards South Florida by late tonight and
allow for continuation of the unsettled pattern. As a result,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be likely
across South Florida this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. While
the better dynamics will be to our north, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible both days especially around the lake
region and over into Palm Beach county. Damaging wind gusts would be
the primary threat, however cooling temps aloft may allow for some
hail in a few storms as well. With fairly weak storm motions again
today, localized flooding could be a concern over the metro,
especially in poor drainage areas.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s for interior areas and low-mid 70s
for coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

The unsettled pattern continues at least through the first half
of the long term period. A mid to upper level cutoff low is
progged to develop across the eastern CONUS and begin pushing
towards the Southeast late on Thursday. This feature will deepen
through the day on Friday and aid in the development of a surface
low just off the northeast Florida coast by late Friday. At the
surface, the remnants of a frontal boundary that was stalled just
to the north of the region will continue to allow for a rather
light west to southwesterly wind flow through the end of the week.
This will allow for rich tropical moisture to continue to advect
into the region as the latest forecast soundings show PWAT values
hovering between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. These features will allow
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across
the entire South Florida area and local waters Friday afternoon.
With cooling 500mb temps, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out
with the best chance for seeing stronger cells around the Lake
Okeechobee region.

Heading into the weekend, the upper level cutoff low likely will
linger across the Southeast and keep South Florida in a westerly-
southwesterly regime through the weekend. This will favor scattered
afternoon sea breeze driven showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the interior and eastern metro areas each day. Some
guidance is showing a chance for mid-upper level dry air to reach
the area on Saturday and Sunday and this could potentially limit
coverage somewhat although it seems there will be enough lower-level
moisture to support at least a few showers and thunderstorms each
day, especially on Saturday.

Temperatures across the area will remain hot through the long term
period. Highs will likely be reaching the lower 90s and heat indices
in the upper 90s each day. The evenings will remain warm, with lows
dropping to the low 70s along the East coast and mid 60s in the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Increasing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected until the evening hours. Expect periods of reduced vis
and low cigs with any storm affecting the terminals, so AMDs/TEMPOs
may be needed. Light SSW flow with a more westerly component over
APF with Gulf breezes. Brief easterly sea breeze winds possible
through the evening at east coast terminals. Winds become light
and variable again late tonight and overnight. Another round of
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

South to southwesterly flow will prevail across Atlantic waters
today and tomorrow with Northwesterly flow across Gulf waters. Low
seas will dominate outside of the Gulf Stream, with 2-3 feet
within the current. Showers and storms expected each day this
week, which may result in locally hazardous seas and winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Along the Atlantic coast, onshore flow will result in a moderate rip
current risk along the Atlantic beaches. An elevated risk will
remain for the next several days across the Palm beaches due to an
increasing NE swell.|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  86  73  86 /  50  80  80  90
West Kendall     69  87  69  87 /  50  80  80  90
Opa-Locka        71  87  71  87 /  50  80  70  90
Homestead        71  86  71  86 /  60  80  80  90
Fort Lauderdale  72  84  72  85 /  50  80  80  90
N Ft Lauderdale  73  85  72  85 /  50  80  80  90
Pembroke Pines   71  87  71  87 /  50  80  70  90
West Palm Beach  70  86  71  85 /  60  90  80  90
Boca Raton       71  87  71  87 /  60  90  80  90
Naples           73  87  72  87 /  50  80  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
836 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
251245-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
836 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon & Evening...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for All Atlantic Beaches...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
this afternoon and evening across interior and eastern portions of
the area. The main hazards will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, small hail, and lightning.

Flooding: Heavy rainfall within showers and thunderstorms could lead
to localized flooding in the low lying and poor drainage areas
today.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An elevated risk of rip currents is likely to continue for the rest
of this week, mainly along the Palm Beaches. The risk of rip
currents will increase across all east coast beaches heading into
the upcoming holiday weekend.

Showers and storms will remain fairly widespread through the end of
the week. Periods of heavy rain will be possible and could lead to
localized flooding concerns especially across the east coast metro
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.