Wind Advisory 4, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1111 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Clear skies, dry airmass and diminishing winds have allowed temps
to fall quickly this evening. A deck of low-mid clouds will push
across northern regions overnight which should halt the temp fall
somewhat. A developing light south wind should also help level
temps off a bit as well.

Next week is looking very interesting with cold air filtering into
the region and several systems rolling through. The chance for
winter weather over at least part of the Mid-South is on the
increase. Stay tuned.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

A cold night is in store for the Mid-South as temperatures drop
below freezing by Friday morning. However, the cold weather will
not stick around for long as increased moisture and temperatures
return this weekend. A wet pattern will begin late Saturday into Sunday
as an approaching cold front moves into the region. This front
has the potential to bring wintry precipitation to the Mid-South
by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Cloud cover across the Mid-South has started to lift, allowing for
sunshine to return to portions of the region. Any remaining
clouds will move east out of the region by this evening, leaving
behind clear conditions. Tonight, expect temperatures to dip below
freezing for the majority of the region, with lows settling in
the upper 20s to low 30s.

Luckily, the cold air will not remain in place for long as winds
switch to a southerly direction Friday, advecting warmer
temperatures to the Mid-South. As a result, Friday afternoon will
be rather pleasant with temperatures in the mid 50s. Synoptically,
an upper level trough will race across the Great Lakes Region on
Friday. The Mid-South's proximity to this system will result in
the development of strong gusty winds in northern areas of the
region Friday morning. Sustained winds of 15-20mph are possible,
with probabilistic guidance showing a 30-50% chance of wind gusts
of 40mph.

By Saturday, zonal flow aloft will allow for southerly winds to
advect increased moisture values to the Mid-South. This combined
with an approaching Arctic cold front will allow for a chance of
shower development starting early Sunday morning. A few rumbles of
thunder are possible in portions of northwest Mississippi, but
any severe weather impacts are not expected at this time. Rain
totals of an inch are probable through early Monday, with locally
higher amounts possible.

Weather patterns for the beginning of next week are still murky as
models struggle to pinpoint the motion of the aforementioned
Arctic cold front. General consensus is that the front will
oscillate over the region starting Monday. By Tuesday, a series of
shortwaves will move close to the region, increasing rain chances
once again. Depending on where the front lines up, impacts will
vary as several model solutions show wintry precipitation
developing over portions of the Mid-South. For now, the best
chance for any wintry precip will be in northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. However, this forecast is subject to change
rapidly as models become more in-line over the coming days.
Additional updates regarding this event will be provided as
ensembles become more fixed.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Light winds will
increase to SW winds between 10-14 kts with a few higher gusts on
Friday, then become light by Friday evening.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
245 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-272245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
245 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong winds may develop in areas of northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel on Friday.

Confidence is increasing for wintry precipitation next Tuesday /
Wednesday as a cold front stalls over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.