Tornado Warning 69, NWS Memphis, TN

945 
WWUS54 KMEG 182232
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
532 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

ARC055-182300-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0069.000000T0000Z-230618T2300Z/
Greene AR-
532 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
GREENE COUNTY...
    
At 531 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Evening Star, or 8 miles north of Crowleys Ridge
State Park, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Paragould, Crowleys Ridge State Park, Oak Grove Heights, Lafe,
O'Kean, Delaplaine, Evening Star, Walcott, Beech Grove, Stonewall,
Case, Stanford, Gainesville, Light, Walnut Corner, Finch,
Faulknerville and Crowley's Ridge State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 9082 3609 9080 3610 9079 3611 9077
      3613 9077 3615 9075 3615 9081 3627 9081
      3627 9073 3624 9043 3596 9056 3597 9058
      3605 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 285DEG 30KT 3614 9070 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

CJC

042 
WWUS54 KMEG 182243
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
543 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

ARC055-182300-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0069.000000T0000Z-230618T2300Z/
Greene AR-
543 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
GREENE COUNTY...
    
At 543 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Beech Grove, or 7 miles northeast of Crowleys Ridge
State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado, golf ball size hail, and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Paragould, Oak Grove Heights, Lafe, Evening Star, Beech Grove,
Stanford, Gainesville, Light and Crowley's Ridge State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 9070 3620 9045 3599 9055 3607 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 284DEG 25KT 3612 9061 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

MJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
353 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this evening.
Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and a few tornadoes are
possible. The window for severe weather looks to be from 5PM
through midnight for our forecast area. An upper low will stall
over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will affect areas along and east of the
Mississippi River. Slightly cooler than normal high temperatures
will prevail over the Midsouth through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

A tough forecast for the next several hours across the Mid South.
We are still anticipating strong to severe storms to develop
across the area this evening. This is a shaky confidence but high
ceiling type forecast for the region. All short range guidance
still points to storms developing after 5 PM this evening lasting
through midnight across the area. This particular round looks to
be more cellular than linear and that could increase the hail
threat and the tornado threat. SPC still maintains mostly a slight
risk for the area with a small portion of the southern areas of
the CWA in an enhanced risk. The good news is this should be the
last of the severe weather for the next several days as this
active pattern comes to an end. Next week an upper low will cut
off and deepen over the Midwest and drift south through mid week.
This would be a trigger for a few showers and storms, but nothing
severe. Slightly cooler temperatures expected next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Ceilings are generally VFR this afternoon in between waves of
convection. Latest CAM guidance slows tonight's system down by
about an hour, now looking right around the 00Z time frame for brief
periods of TSRA and temporarily reductions in visibility to 2SM or
less. After the system moves through, both MOS and HRRR guidance
is pinging on low ceilings overnight. MKL is the only site that
had a strong signal for IFR ceilings; capped all other sites at
MVFR ceilings for now. By mid morning tomorrow, the low cloud deck
should scatter out back to VFR. A few models showed some
scattered showers on the back side of the system late tomorrow
morning, but coverage and confidence were too low to include
precip in the TAFs tomorrow.

Winds this afternoon are generally from the south around 10-12
kts, gusting intermittently to 18-20 kts. As the strong to severe
convection moves through tonight, sfc winds could gust up to 30
kts during stronger downdrafts. Wind speeds overnight should
remain elevated enough to preclude any fog development despite the
excess moisture in place. Expect a gradual shift to the west and
eventually northwest behind the system tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH
AVIATION...CAD