Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

A few showers and thunderstorms are just west of the Tennessee
River this morning, otherwise skies are mostly sunny across much
of the Mid-South. Temperatures are currently ranging from the
upper 70s to mid 80s. With fewer clouds than expected at this
time, temperatures are already close to forecasted highs so have
raised them a couple of degrees. The next round of thunderstorms
have started to develop across western Arkansas. It appears that
we will see thunderstorms moving into the region by early
afternoon. There still remains a threat for damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall from these thunderstorms.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

A wet weekend is underway across the Midsouth that may feature
multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall. However, clouds and rainfall should keep temperatures in
check. A cold front will pass through the region late Sunday
reducing the chance of rain early next week but afternoon
thunderstorms will remain possible each day. Temperatures will
trend warmer during the upcoming work week with highs back in the
middle 90s and triple digit heat indices after midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Two clusters of thunderstorms are tracking across east Arkansas
early this morning. Short term high resolution guidance has these
storms slowly weakening as they approach the Mississippi River.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
impact all of the Midsouth later this afternoon into the evening
hours. Strong to severe storms are likely. The Storm Prediction
Center has included nearly all of the Midsouth in a Slight risk
for severe thunderstorms in their Day 1 convective outlook.
Damaging wind should be the main threat for most of the region,
although any midday storms may produce large hail over far
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee
where midlevel lapse rates will be near 6.5C/km. Steeper Lapse
rates will overspread the remainder of the Midsouth overnight.
Bulk shear during the day should be less than 30 kts, but may
approach 35-40kts after sunset. Dew points in the middle 70s and
temperatures warming into the middle to upper 80s will result in
ML CAPE near 2000J/kg early this afternoon. Precipitable water
will be near 2 inches today and tonight resulting in an elevated
chance of flooding and flash flooding. Storms should form into a
broken line and shift into Middle Tennessee and north Alabama by
Midnight. However, showers and weaker storms will likely linger
through the night.

A fairly deep (for July) trough will approach the Mississippi
River before sunrise. Expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms, also potentially severe, on Sunday. However timing
on this secondary wave is uncertain. Some global models have
these storms approaching the Mississippi River not long after
sunrise while many of the CAMS hold it off until the afternoon
hours. The later solution would likely be more supportive of
severe thunderstorms as they take advantage of the afternoon heat
induced instability. The greater instability looks to be squashed
into north Mississippi Sunday, but mid level lapse rates are
greatest along and north of the I-40 Corridor. The Storm
Prediction Center has included the southern half of the Midsouth
in a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in their Day 2
convective outlook with the northern half in a marginal risk. High
moisture will remain in place so flooding will remain a concern.
However, storms should be fast-moving so this could curb the
flooding threat slightly. Bulk shear on Sunday should be around
30 kts. Damaging wind should be the main threat.

A cold front will move south of the Midsouth late Sunday evening
bringing an end to the severe threat. The front is expected to
stall over central Mississippi Monday then return north as a warm
front Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result, expect a drier and
mild day Monday with warmer conditions returning Tuesday into
Midweek.

Northwest flow will remain in place next week, so the threat of an
MCS will be there, but expect mostly afternoon type showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will trend
warmer through the week. Expect highs back in the middle 90s and
triple digit heat indices after midweek.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to impact all TAF
sites this afternoon and should end later tonight. Main threat is
hail and gusty winds. With the extra moisture, fog development at
MKL and JBR will likely occur. Low confidence in fog occurring at
TUP therefore it was not mentioned in TAFs. Lowered visibilities
and ceilings will introduce MVFR conds. briefly with the
thunderstorms and fog. Otherwise, VFR conds are expected to
prevail throughout the TAF period. Another round of thunderstorms
and showers should move in tomorrow around 14Z/15Z. Westerly winds
between 5-8 kts should veer SW by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...GNC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

MSZ017-024-081800-
Itawamba MS-Monroe MS-
1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Itawamba
and northern Monroe Counties through 100 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Tremont to near New Salem to Amory.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amory, Smithville, Tremont, New Salem, Clay, Hatley, Gattman, Sipsey
Fork, Becker, Quincy, Turon, Tilden, Splunge, Wise Gap, Athens,
Bigbee, Greenwood Springs, Parham and Cadamy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 8863 3410 8841 3431 8834 3428 8818
      3378 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 289DEG 25KT 3428 8830 3410 8835 3399 8850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

MSZ001-002-TNZ088-081815-
Marshall MS-DeSoto MS-Shelby TN-
1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern DeSoto,
northwestern Marshall and south central Shelby Counties through 115
PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lynchburg, or over Horn Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southaven, Olive Branch, Horn Lake, Hernando, T O Fuller State Park,
Memphis, Byhalia, Walls, Southwest Memphis, Lynchburg, Lewisburg,
Whitehaven, Cockrum, Cedarview, Bright, Nesbit, Handy Corner,
Capleville, Glover and Jago.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 9013 3499 8963 3477 8972 3491 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 284DEG 43KT 3496 9007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlessiger

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
143 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

ARZ036-048-049-MSZ007-081915-
St. Francis AR-Lee AR-Crittenden AR-Tunica MS-
143 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lee,
southeastern St. Francis, south central Crittenden and northern
Tunica Counties through 215 PM CDT...

At 143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brickeys, or near Hughes, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hughes, Tunica, Brickeys, North Tunica, Robinsonville, Cody, Clack,
Kokomo, Commerce, Austin, Mud Lake, Peters, Council, Bruins, Beck,
North Hughes, Diamond Woods, Banks, Whitehall and Bowdre.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9056 3489 9028 3487 9031 3486 9030
      3486 9020 3480 9020 3459 9040 3489 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 310DEG 24KT 3490 9057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

SWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
208 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

ARZ049-058-081945-
Phillips AR-Lee AR-
208 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Lee and
northern Phillips Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Palmer, or 10 miles west of Marvell, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marvell, Helena-West Helena, Lexa, Rondo, Aubrey, Watkins Corner,
Lagrange, Wycamp, Latour, Turkey Scratch, Vineyard, Cypress Corner,
Poplar Grove, Big Creek Corner, Oneida, Barton, Kindall, Phillips
Bayou, Kingtown and Gobell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 9062 3443 9069 3446 9100 3447 9101
      3447 9106 3473 9105 3474 9110 3474 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 274DEG 41KT 3460 9110

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schlessiger