Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1152 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

It's an exceptionally windy morning across the Mid-South at this
hour. The strongest wind gusts have been along and west of the
Mississippi River, where gusts have reached 45 mph. The latest
surface analysis places a 991mb low near Topeka, Kansas with a
warm front extending through northern Missouri and east into
southern Ohio. An attendant cold front was analyzed from Kansas
City, Kansas southwest into the ArkLaTex. A line of showers and
embedded thunderstorms was seen from regional radar.

Convection has been rather lackluster with the cold front thus far,
but could intensify over the next hour or so as it moves into a
slightly unstable airmass. The Mid-South remains in a Marginal
Risk of severe storms this afternoon. The latest hi-res model
guidance suggests the line of showers and storms weakening as it
moves into our area from the west. Model soundings are mainly
inverted Vs, which would support a damaging wind threat. Some
decent turning of winds from the surface to 500mb could support a
brief spin up tornado over north Mississippi this afternoon if
storms can break the cap and become surface-based. However,
confidence remains low as LCLs will likely stay above 1500 meters.
The threat for severe weather should diminish quickly by early
evening as the limited instability wanes. The aforementioned front
is expected to slow down and washout over eastern portions of the
Mid-South late tonight.

Made minor tweaks to the forecast. Adjusted highs to reflect
current warming trends. Several climate locations will set high
temperature records this afternoon as we climb into the mid to
upper 70s. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph this afternoon,
especially if skies continue to clear. The rest of the forecast
is in good shape.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
A warm front has passed through the forecast area and record
highs are expected across the Mid South. Winds will be strong
today as a Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire Mid South. A
cold front will pass through the region tonight bringing a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that develop may produce
strong winds. Thursday will also be warm but much drier. Cooler
weather will finally filter in on Friday followed by rain chances
for the weekend and gradually warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Record warmth and high winds are expected today across the Mid
South. It is 4 AM on a February night and the current temperature
is 69 degrees...normally with this prompt I would be worried about
a severe weather outbreak, but the severe weather threat looks to
be very limited and conditional. The good news for us is that the
parent low is too far displaced to the NW for us to have a major
issue. Guidance shows some thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and evening once the front starts to move into the
region. A few strong storms will be possible just ahead and along
the front. Damaging winds will be the main threat as thunderstorms
will not have to work hard today to tap into strong winds to
bring down to the surface as the VAD Wind profiler shows 70 knots
at 4000 ft this morning. The SPC has reintroduced a Marginal Risk
for the Mid South today for this reason. Again this is a very
conditional threat and I am not overly confident in a bunch of
severe weather.

What I am confident in is the strong winds and record
temperatures. Again pointing to the VAD Wind profiler this morning
and very strong winds are just above the surface today and this
will translate to strong gradient winds for the Mid South
especially once the sun comes out and starts to mix the
atmosphere. With 70 knot winds at 4000 feet and 85 knot winds at
7000 feet wind gust today could easily be in the 40-50 mph range.
Depending on how much mixing there is we could see some gusts over
50 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of the area today for
this reason. Now...the one fly in the ointment is cloud cover.
This has a bearing on how gusty winds can get and also how warm we
will get in some areas. Guidance suggests that there could be
some breaks in the cloud cover especially across north
Mississippi. Looking at the current sat picture there already
appears to be some clearing across Mississippi. This will allow
for the temperatures to really take off across the southern
portion of the forecast area. I have temperatures in the 80s
across the south. The bigger question is how much clearing do we
get over E AR. I kept clouds in thicker there and have adjusted
temps to be a little lower west of the Mississippi River. I expect
us to break numerous temperature records today. Here are the
records for today.

Climate records for Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Location        Record/Date
Memphis, TN     76/2017
Jackson, TN     73/2000
Jonesboro, AR   73/1980
Tupelo, MS      79/2022

I expect all of these to be broken even with the cloud cover.
Thursday will be a warm day with mostly dry conditions. There
will be more sun which could allow temps to climb into the 80s
again south of I-40. Cooler air will start filtering in by late
in the day. Cooler air filters in for Friday as the front sinks
south of the area. The front will then lift gradually north
through the weekend. Upper level disturbances moving through the
mainly zonal flow aloft will interact with the front and produce
rain chances from Friday through Sunday. Temps will be slightly
below normal on Friday and gradually warm through the weekend.

The next significant system will lift out of northern Mexico
early next week bringing more chances for rain followed by dry and
mild weather for the middle of next week. Best chances for severe
weather will probably be NW of the Mid-South but it is still
early.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2023

Low level wind shear and strong surface winds remain the primary
aviation weather concern. 12Z LZK sounding showed the lowest 3kft
of the atmosphere to be well-mixed, with vertical mixing likely
aiding LLWS potential at Midsouth terminals.

CAMs depict a north/south oriented TSRA line over central AR to
gradually weaken as it approaches MEM around 21Z - likely due a
slowing cold front on which the storms are anchored. Soon after
this linear convection weakens, the HRRR model is unique among the
CAMs in depicting discrete warm sector TSRA cells developing over
north MS, mainly affecting TUP and eastern portions of the MEM
TRACON by 23Z. Confidence in this scenario is limited, but can't
be ruled out if UOX and TUP temps warm into the lower 80s.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH
AVIATION...PWB

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