Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist mainly over portions
of north Mississippi this evening as an upper level low pressure
system moves east out of the region. An upper level ridge will
start to build into the Mid-South on Sunday bringing a period of
dry weather through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will
gradually warm over the next few days with highs approaching 90
degrees toward the end of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

A large area of showers along with some isolated thunderstorms
are moving east across portions of north Mississippi while a few
showers are moving west into portions of northwest Tennessee. This
is a result of an upper level low pressure system moving slowly
through the region. Temperatures this afternoon are ranging from
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

The upper level low will continue to move east into middle
Tennessee this evening. As it does, it will take the showers and
thunderstorms away from the region with dry weather returning to
the entire Mid-South after midnight. Temperatures will remain
below normal tonight with lows in the lower 50s to around 60
degrees.

By Sunday morning, the upper low will be centered over northern
Georgia. Most of the showers and isolated thunderstorms that
develop on Sunday around the upper low should remain east of the
Mid-South but an isolated shower or thunderstorm sneaking into
the region can't be ruled out. Temperatures will be a little
warmer on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

An upper level ridge will start to build into western sections of
the region Sunday night and will continue to spread north and east
through much of the upcoming week. As it does, temperatures will
start to slowly warm from day to day with highs approaching 90
degrees by Friday. Dry weather is expected from Sunday through
Wednesday morning. After that, scattered thunderstorms are
possible mainly during the afternoon hours for Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

A few thunderstorms remain from this morning's activity, but
redevelopment is anticipated this afternoon along the surface
trough, mainly east of the MS River. While tempo visibility
restrictions are possible within convection, prevailing VFR
conditions will prevail with light winds, generally from a
northeasterly direction. Convection is expected to linger into the
evening hours, dissipating after sunset. Patchy fog will be
possible in areas that receive rain today, but spatial confidence
is too low to mention at this time.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ001-007-008-
     011-012-020.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...MJ

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