Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

As of 1015 AM, a mostly cloudy sky is prevalent across the Mid-
South. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s and are on
track to reach the low 80s, especially across north Mississippi
and along the Tennessee River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms
are beginning to move into northeast AR. These storms have the
potential to be strong to severe. A Tornado Watch is in effect
until 4 PM along and north of the I-40 corridor and northwest
Mississippi. No major changes were made. The previous forecast
looks in excellent shape.

SMW

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Eastern Arkansas...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

A complex convective scenario over eastern AR through midmorning.
10Z SPC Mesoanalysis depicts mixed layer CAPE of 1500-2000 over
eastern AR, a 3 hour increase of 200-400 J/kg. Concurrently, CIN
had weakened. While thermodynamic profiles have become
increasingly supportive of severe storms, deep layer wind shear
has weakened with the diurnal weakening of the low level jet.

1030Z KSRX/KLZK radars showed several broken line segments of
storms over northwest AR -one tornado-warned- lifting east, well
in advance of HRRR-depicted timing.

We have considered dropping northeast AR and part of the MO
bootheel from the Tornado Watch 121, but after coordinating with
SPC, we will wait another hour or so let convective trends over
western into central AR play out. By the time these storms enter
northeast AR, storm mode will likely be mixed, with damaging winds
and large hail the primary threats. The tornado threat will be
less than earlier this morning, but still present.

PWB

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this morning
and to persist through the evening. Lingering showers will
persist, mainly over northeast Mississippi and the Tennessee River
basin, continuing after the frontal passage until Saturday
evening. Easter Sunday will begin the start of a dry period for
the extended forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Another low pressure system and associated cold front
has pushed across the Plains and is apparent over  central and
eastern Arkansas. This system will continue to push southeast.
Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for eastern Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel.

Damaging winds and large hail appear to be the primary threats, but
we cannot rule out a tornado or two. The best time frame for severe
weather for the Mid-South is appearing to be 5am-10pm. Warming
surface temperatures after sunrise, a strong low level jet, steep
lapse rates (nearing 8 C/km), effective SRH, STP, and SBCAPE values
are contributing to the tornadic threat. A strong cap should hold
through the afternoon as boundary-layer moisture builds, however,
latest soundings are indicating that the cap is weakening, which
with the aforementioned ingredients, hail and tornadoes may become
more apparent. QPF totals could approach 3 inches in north
Mississippi and west Tennessee, while the rest of the region can
expect 1-2 inches through late tonight. Southerly winds will be
around 20mph with gusts up to 35mph will continue to increase
prior to the cold frontal passage. A Wind Advisory will go into
effect at 4am today with sustained winds over 30mph and gusts
nearing 40mph. Wind shear will begin to diminish in the afternoon.

The aforementioned cold front will stall and leave lingering showers
in the forecast through the week, mainly for north Mississippi and
near the Tennessee River basin. Cooler midweek temperatures will
warm to the lows 70s by the weekend. Easter Sunday will be dry
for all of the Mid-South with highs generally in the 70s.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Cold front extending from southern Wisconsin to southern Texas
will move through TAF sites beginning at JBR this afternoon then
spreading to MEM, MKL, and TUP tonight. Pre-frontal convection
will affect MEM through 18-19Z, MKL 18-20Z, and TUP between
21-23Z. Additional showers and perhaps embedded elevated
thunderstorms are possible behind the front this evening into
Thursday morning. Gusty S/SSW winds will veer W/NW with passage
of front and eventually veer NE tonight. Conditions expected to
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR conditions especially within thunderstorms
and persist through much of the period with improvement
anticipated towards Thursday afternoon/evening.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ001-007-008-
     010-011.

TN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ001>004-
     019>021-048>052-088-089.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SMW
AVIATION...CJC

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