Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
616 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

A low pressure system and associated frontal boundaries are
the root cause of severe weather impacts for the Mid-South to begin
this afternoon. All severe weather hazards are expected as the
system treks east across the region. This quick moving system is
anticipated to exit the region by midnight. A mostly dry weekend is
on tap, with a small chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Saturday afternoon near the Tennessee River valley and again on Sunday
evening across northeast Mississippi. Above normal temperatures
this week and a high pressure system will allot for dry weather
until a late week system approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Favorable conditions across the Mid-South today for
severe weather and all associated hazards. Tornadoes, damaging wind
gusts, flash and areal flooding, and hail are all threats today. The
highest threat of severe thunderstorms is across northwest
Mississippi into far northwest Tennessee. Flooding is most likely in
northwest Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and northeast Arkansas.

Low pressure near the OK/AR border will track northeast along a
current stalled frontal boundary. A mid-level trough will push the
stalled boundary across the region making conditions more
favorable across the Delta region tonight. CAPE values, moisture,
shear, and warm temperatures are allowing more favorable
conditions for discrete cell development ahead of the main line.
If these discrete cells can form in the warm sector, strong
tornadoes are possible. The tornado threat will continue as there
could be embedded tornadoes in the line along with damaging winds.
A Tornado Watch will likely be issued this afternoon. Gusty
southerly winds will support a Wind Advisory until 3am Saturday.

This system should make its exit by midnight tonight and result in a
mainly dry weekend. A lingering cell or two may cause some showers
and an isolated thunderstorm in the northeast corner of west
Tennessee tomorrow afternoon. An active subtropical jet creates a
chance of showers, mostly in the southern portion of northeast
Mississippi, Sunday evening. There may be an isolated thunderstorm
associated with these showers, but severe threat is limited.

The remaining portion of the Mid-South will be warm and dry until late
week as high pressure settles into the region. Above normal
temperatures expected this week with highs mainly in the 60s and
70s with lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Our next chance of rain
appears to come late week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are moving across the area and will
affect sites west to east. Cigs and vsbys will lower and we will
see IFR conditions in the thunderstorms and heavier showers.
Conditions should improve to VFR through the early morning with
low cigs moving in behind the cold front for several hours. By
tomorrow mid morning, conditions everywhere should be VFR. Wind
is quite variable depending on the site. In general, wind should
be southerly 15-20kts with occasional gusts to 30kts possible.
Wind should relax for a short time overnight before picking back
up in the morning and veering WNW by the end of the TAF cycle.

SMW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ113-115.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TNZ001>003-019.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SMW