Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
345 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north Mississippi
through this evening but slightly cooler and drier air will settle
over the region behind a cold front. A few showers are possible
on Friday, mainly west of Memphis, but generally dry conditions
are expected through Monday. Rain chances will increase by the
middle of next week. Highs will be in the 80s with lows mainly in
the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

A shortwave trough diving southeast across the Midwest will
provide large-scale forcing for ascent across the Mid-South
through the evening hours. A cold front extends from surface low
over the Great Lakes, south along the IL/IN border, arcing
southwest into northern AR. South of this front, warm and humid
conditions persist with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg across a good
portion of the Mid-South. A 500-mb jet streak on the southern
flank of this wave will enhance deep-layer shear, resulting in
effective bulk shear in the neighborhood of 30-35 kts. Storms will
remain loosely organized initially but will likely consolidate
into linear clusters, moving southeast through mid-evening. The
presence of some mid-level dry air will enhance the potential for
damaging wind gusts, though isolated, marginally severe hail is
possible. These storms will move southeast of the CWA by midnight
with dry weather thereafter.

The current heat headlines still look good. Heat index readings
south of I-40 and west of I-55 are at or above 105F with West
Memphis and and Millington still at 103F. Additional convection
may alleviate heat concerns in the current advisory, but no
changes will be made at this time.

Winds will fall off tonight as the boundary layer decouples and
temperatures fall into the mid 60s, promoting patchy fog
development, primarily to the east of the MS River. Similar
conditions will be possible Thursday night, though perhaps tied
more to water sources like near lakes and river valleys in the
post- frontal air mass. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are
expected Thursday but another system will approach the CWA Friday.
This could result in some light precipitation across AR or
extreme northwest MS Friday, but a reinforcing cold front will
shunt this moisture south by Friday night. Dry conditions are
expected area wide this weekend into early next week as
precipitable water drops below 1.0" across the Mid-South. This dry
air will promote below normal minimum temperatures, with some
areas dipping into the 50s during the early morning hours late
this week and into the weekend. The deterministic NBM may need to
be adjusted downward in areas like Jackson, TN, to account for
this.

We'll see a split flow pattern early next week. A strong trough
will move into the Great Lakes with southern branch shortwave
trough rotating through the Southern Plains by late Monday. These
waves will phase over the eastern CONUS, enhancing rain chances
during the midweek period. It doesn't appear to be a significant
weather system at this time.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

Shower and storm coverage will likely increase this afternoon as
a cold front approaches the Mid-South. Inside of storms, brief
MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBY are possible, but overall conditions will
be VFR. Overnight, expect light northerly winds to persist. This,
combined with recent rainfall, will likely contribute to fog
formation at MKL by 6Z. By midmorning Thursday, expect winds to
increase to 6-8 kts.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049-
     058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ088.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...ANS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
531 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Blair               34.44N 88.78W
09/06/2023                   Lee                MS   911 Call Center

            Trees down in the 200 block of Birmingham
            Ridge Road in the Blair community.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
540 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     Hail             Corinth                 34.94N 88.52W
09/06/2023  M1.00 inch       Alcorn             MS   Broadcast Media

            Quarter-sized hail observed in downtown
            Corinth.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
541 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

MSZ006-009-062315-
Tishomingo MS-Prentiss MS-
541 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Tishomingo
and northeastern Prentiss Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 541 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burnsville, or near Iuka, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iuka, Burnsville, Midway, Paden, Bacon Springs, Oldham, Blythe
Crossing, Carter Branch, Hazard Switch, Walker Siding, Mingo, Holcut,
Holts Spur and Petertown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8814 3471 8841 3476 8840 3476 8836
      3489 8836 3488 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 277DEG 24KT 3479 8831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
547 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     Hail             Corinth                 34.93N 88.52W
09/06/2023  E1.75 inch       Alcorn             MS   Trained Spotter

            Photo of hail up to the size of a golf ball
            in Corinth.

&&

MJ