Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
735 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

An active weather day is in store across the Mid-South as a couple
of upper level troughs will bring periods of thunderstorms to the
region today and tonight. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe
with damaging winds as the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall is
also possible.

Unsettled weather will continue across the region Thursday with a
threat of scattered thunderstorms through the weekend. An
increase in temperatures and moisture will lead to a return of hot
and humid weather for Friday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. There
is a frontal boundary currently across south Mississippi.

This front will start to lift north today toward north
Mississippi. In addition, an upper level trough will move across
the region. With an increase in moisture and instability,
thunderstorms will start to develop across northeast Arkansas
later this morning and then spread east mainly over the northern
half of the Mid-South. This round of thunderstorms should move out
of the region by mid-afternoon. A few thunderstorms could be
severe with damaging winds as the main threat. Temperatures will
generally be below normal again today with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 90s.

By tonight, the warm front will be over the eastern edge of the
Mid-South with a cold front moving across western and central
Arkansas. As a second round of thunderstorms develop ahead of the
cold front tonight, the atmosphere will be more unstable than this
morning so there will be an increased risk of severe weather.
Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat
while large hail and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
Temperatures will be more seasonal tonight with lows Thursday
morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

On Thursday, the cold front will move the eastern and southern
sections of the Mid-South with more thunderstorms expected ahead
of the front. Temperatures will remain below normal on Thursday
especially behind the front with highs in the lower 80s to lower
90s.

The weather pattern becomes rather unsettled for Friday through
Tuesday as the frontal boundary remains over or close to the
region. This will result in scattered thunderstorms possible for
this period. In addition, temperatures will start to return back
to the low to mid 90s resulting in hot and humid weather for the
region. Afternoon Heat Index values are expected to reach above
105 starting on Friday and continuing through the weekend and into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Currently, fog observed at MKL and TUP should dissipate within
the next hour. A shortwave trough proceeding the main trough will
bring in two rounds of thunderstorms and showers. These rounds
are expected to impact all TAF sites with the first round starting
in the morning and the second round later on tonight. There is
low confidence in exact timing and coverage amount due to high
variability displayed in all the models. In order to establish
congruity, the 006Z HRRR guidance was used to create the TAFs.
LLWS was not mentioned but should be added to TAF sites for
tonight. Expected LLWS values are around 40kts with SW winds
starting tonight and going into the next morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...GNC
AVIATION...DNM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1051 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

ARZ028-TNZ048-049-091615-
Mississippi AR-Tipton TN-Lauderdale TN-
1051 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Mississippi,
central Tipton and southwestern Lauderdale Counties through 1115 AM
CDT...

At 1051 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Osceola, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Osceola, Luxora, Fort Pillow State Park, Munford,
Brighton, Fulton, Ft Pillow, Atoka, Henning, Gilt Edge, Burlison,
Garland, Egypt, Driver, Grider, Carson Lake, Rotan, Idaville and
Chilson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9009 3580 8999 3567 8950 3542 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 297DEG 41KT 3569 8996

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlessiger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1100 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

ARZ027-028-036-TNZ049-088-091630-
Poinsett AR-Mississippi AR-Crittenden AR-Tipton TN-Shelby TN-
1100 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Poinsett, southwestern Mississippi, northeastern Crittenden,
southwestern Tipton and northwestern Shelby Counties through 1130 AM
CDT...

At 1059 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tyronza, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millington, Tyronza, Meeman Shelby Forest State Park, Joiner,
Gilmore, Dixonville, Turrell, Clarkedale, Birdsong, Whitton, Dimple,
Deckerville, Griffin Corner, Menesha, Quito, Woodstock, Dub,
Chelford, Locke and Sloanville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 9037 3548 8987 3525 8998 3534 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 282DEG 42KT 3545 9032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlessiger