Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
740 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mid-South tonight
ahead of a slow moving cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may
become severe with damaging winds as the main threat. As the cold
front moves through north Mississippi Monday morning, thunderstorms
will move out of the region. Drier air will filter into much of
the region through Wednesday, keeping the heat at bay. Excessive
heat is forecast to move into the region by Thursday as temperatures
climb into the triple digits areawide. Another cold front will
move into the region next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Skies are mostly sunny across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures in the 90s. Heat index values are approaching 110
across the entire region. Thunderstorms have developed over
portions of Middle and East Tennessee earlier this afternoon with
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch extending into north Alabama through 6
PM. Thunderstorms have also just started to develop over
northwest Arkansas and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in
effect for portions of central and western Arkansas until 10 PM.
Additional watches that could include the Mid-South are possible
late this afternoon and into this evening. A cold front currently
extends from southern Illinois across northwest Arkansas and into
northwest Texas.

As the cold front moves southeast tonight, thunderstorms will
develop ahead of the front and move into the Mid-South late this
afternoon and into this evening. Some of the thunderstorms could
be severe with damaging winds as the main threat. Large hail could
also occur with an isolated tornado not out of the question.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Monday morning
in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The cold front will be moving through north Mississippi on Monday
morning with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of the front.
Behind the front, somewhat cooler and much drier air will move
into the region. This will result in a less humid day across the
region with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. By Monday night,
the cold front will be in central Mississippi with an isolated
thunderstorm possible over the extreme southern portions of the
Mid-South. Temperatures Monday night will be cooler than tonight
with lows Tuesday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected for Tuesday and
Tuesday night as high pressure remain in control across the
region. By Wednesday, a warm front will be slowly approaching the
region from the west. Scattered thunderstorms may develop ahead of
the front and move into the region mainly during the morning
hours. Temperatures will be a little warmer on Wednesday and Heat
Index values approaching 100 degrees.

By Thursday, the warm front will be north of the region and the
upper level ridge currently over the southern Plains will spread
eastward toward the Mid-South. As a result, dry and hot weather is
expected across the region for Thursday and Friday. High temperatures
will approach 100 degrees across much of the region both days and
Heat Index values could exceed 110 degrees. A Excessive Heat
Warning may be needed if subsequent forecasts continue to show
such hot conditions.

Another cold front will slowly approach the region on Saturday
with scattered thunderstorms possibly moving into the Mid-South
ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Convective complex moving through MEM as of 00Z TAF issuance.
Activity is expected to affect TUP this evening and perhaps MKL.
VFR conditions will return once convection and a cold front push
through TAF sites tonight. W/NW winds behind the front will become
light late tonight and increase to 7-11 kts on Monday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...GNC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
651 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Joiner             35.53N 90.17W
06/25/2023                   Mississippi        AR   Emergency Mngr

            Semi across I-55 near mile marker 32.

&&

SWB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 N Bartlett            35.26N 89.84W
06/25/2023  M60 MPH          Shelby             TN   Public

            60 MPH Wind Gust.

0659 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Bartlett                35.22N 89.84W
06/25/2023  M65 MPH          Shelby             TN   NWS Employee

            60-70 MPH Sind Gusts. Possilbel trees down
            as well.

0703 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Bartlett                35.22N 89.84W
06/25/2023  M70 MPH          Shelby             TN   NWS Employee

            70 MPH wind gust recorded in Bartlett.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 S Lakeland            35.23N 89.73W
06/25/2023                   Shelby             TN   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports numerous trees down on I-40
            near mile marker 20. Tree on car.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
720 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bartlett                35.22N 89.84W
06/25/2023                   Shelby             TN   NWS Employee

            Numerous trees down across north Bartlett.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
725 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Lakeland          35.22N 89.74W
06/25/2023                   Shelby             TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Trees uprooted or
            snapped; Roof blown off.

&&

SWB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
745 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNW Moscow            35.11N 89.42W
06/25/2023                   Fayette            TN   Public

            Report from mPING: Trees uprooted or
            snapped; Roof blown off.

&&

SWB