Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
608 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this evening.
Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rain, and a few tornadoes are
possible. The window for severe weather looks to be from 5PM
through midnight for our forecast area. An upper low will stall
over the Tennessee Valley through mid to late week. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will affect areas along and east of the
Mississippi River. Slightly cooler than normal high temperatures
will prevail over the Midsouth through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

A tough forecast for the next several hours across the Mid South.
We are still anticipating strong to severe storms to develop
across the area this evening. This is a shaky confidence but high
ceiling type forecast for the region. All short range guidance
still points to storms developing after 5 PM this evening lasting
through midnight across the area. This particular round looks to
be more cellular than linear and that could increase the hail
threat and the tornado threat. SPC still maintains mostly a slight
risk for the area with a small portion of the southern areas of
the CWA in an enhanced risk. The good news is this should be the
last of the severe weather for the next several days as this
active pattern comes to an end. Next week an upper low will cut
off and deepen over the Midwest and drift south through mid week.
This would be a trigger for a few showers and storms, but nothing
severe. Slightly cooler temperatures expected next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Round 2 of convection is set to begin near 00z and brief periods
of low VSBYs and TSRA are expected. After the system moves through
some low CIGS producing IFR conditions are likely. By mid morning
tomorrow, the low cloud deck should scatter out back to VFR. A
few models showed some scattered showers on the back side of the
system late tomorrow morning, but coverage and confidence were too
low to include precip in the TAFs tomorrow.

Winds may gust as this second round moves through, but will slow
generally around 4kts overnight. Some BR may occur within the low
CIGS and abundant moisture, but should not lower VSBYs below 2sm.
Winds will jump back with diurnal trends tomorrow with some
potential for gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon with a gradual
shift to the west and eventually northwest.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH
AVIATION...DNM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
608 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     Hail             Beech Grove             36.17N 90.62W
06/18/2023  E1.25 inch       Greene             AR   Public

            Public reports image of hail in Beech Grove.
            Time is radar estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     Hail             Beech Grove             36.17N 90.62W
06/18/2023  E1.75 inch       Greene             AR   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from Beech
            Grove. Public reports image of hail in Beech
            Grove. Time is radar estimated.

&&