Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
720 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Unsettled weather will remain over the region through at least this
weekend. Periods of strong to severe storms will be possible
nearly every day. Timing will remain the uncertain aspect, as a
series of shortwaves will translate through northwest flow. Sunday
looks to have the highest chance of strong to severe thunderstorm
coverage. Temperatures will trend warmer Friday through next
week, as a ridge of high pressure builds in across the Mississippi
Valley.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

The Mid-South and much of the Southeast remain in a late April
weather pattern with early July instability. This has led to
several waves of active weather with severe thunderstorms
including earlier today.

A stationary front will remain in close proximity to the Mid-South
over the next several days. This will serve as a trigger for
daytime and nighttime storms Friday through Sunday. Temperatures
will trend slightly warmer each day through this weekend as we
remain on the eastern periphery of a ridge of high pressure.
Thursday appears to be the driest day of the period as the front
meanders south and weak ridging remains overhead.

The ridge will retrograde west and allow northwest flow to setup
over the region once again. A MCS looks likely Friday night into
Saturday with a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms possible.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. We will
see a brief lull in storm coverage on Saturday before another
robust system moves in on Sunday. The ridge will deamplify and
allow a potent shortwave to track across the Southern Plains and
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A surface low is progged to
develop near the ArkLaTex late Sunday and track into the Mid-South
Sunday night into Monday. Decent instability and high shear will
combine for an all hazards threat through Monday. Large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

The aforementioned shortwave will cutoff from the mean flow and
remain just to the east of the Mid-South through at least the
middle of next week. This will keep the eastern half of the
forecast area in a cool and rainy pattern with dry and hot
conditions to the west.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Expect to see isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms at
all sites except for MKL this evening. Light fog is expected at
all sites later tonight. CIGS will lower to MVFR at MEM and TUP
later tonight before slowly improving to VFR around noon
Thursday. Winds will shift from light southerly to light
northwesterly during the day.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...GNC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
558 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Webb                33.97N 90.35W
06/14/2023                   Tallahatchie       MS   Emergency Mngr

            A home in between Webb and Sumner had damage
            to their pickup truck as large branches and
            debris fell on the vehicle.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
559 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 E Webb                33.95N 90.28W
06/14/2023                   Tallahatchie       MS   Emergency Mngr

            A vacant mobile home damaged by winds and
            debris.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
658 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

ARZ009-150030-
Clay AR-
658 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Clay County
through 730 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corning, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Piggott, Corning, Pollard, McDougal, Crockett, Twin Oaks, Palatka and
Hickoria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9023 3635 9022 3639 9069 3650 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 268DEG 17KT 3648 9061

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SJM

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