Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

An unsettled pattern will continue across the Midsouth for the
upcoming work week but cooler temperatures will be a welcomed
change for the first half of the week. Monday should be mostly dry
with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. However,
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday into next
weekend. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer each day
with 90s returning area wide by Saturday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 257
PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are developing rapidly across the
region. An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for
nearly all of the Mid South as a cold front moves through the
region this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued for all of the Midsouth through 10 pm tonight
although portions of the watch will likely be cancelled after
storms move through and stabilize a given region. Area upper air
soundings show sufficient dry air aloft to result in an enhanced
risk for both large hail and damaging wind, with the greater
threat evolving into damaging wind later this evening. 25-35kt
0-3km shear should be sufficient to maintain healthy updrafts in
storm clusters, but likely too little to result in any significant
tornado threat. Hail and damaging wind will be the main threats
from any severe thunderstorms, but frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall will pose a threat to any outdoor events, even from sub-
severe thunderstorms.

Transient high pressure will build in behind the cold front later
tonight resulting in mostly dry conditions Monday. However, zonal
to weak northwest flow will return Tuesday. Several impulses will
traverse the mean flow Tuesday through Saturday resulting in
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. At this time there
is no indication that widespread severe storms are likely. Heavy
rainfall over several days could develop into a flooding threat.
Temperatures tomorrow should be seasonably pleasant, featuring
highs in the middle 70s to low 80s. We should see our coolest
temperatures of the forecast period Tuesday morning when areas
near the Tennessee River may dip as low as the middle 50s. Expect
high temperatures to trend a few degrees warmer each day with 90s
returning area wide by Saturday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

For the next few hours, intermittent TSRA may impact all sites
except JBR where the front has already cleared. This may result in
temporary reductions in visibilities and gusty winds up to 30 kts.
After these isolated cells clear the area, guidance is hinting at
a period of MVFR ceilings overnight. Most models place a 1500 ft
AGL deck across the area starting shortly after midnight and
finally improving back to VFR around sunrise through the rest of
the period. Post-FROPA overnight, winds are also expected to
shift to the north around 6-9 kts. Opted not to include any precip
mention at the end of the extended MEM TAF; models suggest a wave
of rain coming in around midnight tomorrow night.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CAD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
750 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Hail             3 SSW New Albany        34.45N 89.03W
06/11/2023  E1.50 inch       Union              MS   Broadcast Media

            Ping pong size hail fell near New Albany.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
759 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Independence       34.71N 89.81W
06/11/2023                   Tate               MS   Trained Spotter

            Trees down in the Independence area. Trees
            down across Sycamore Road and Highway 305 at
            Independence Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
803 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     Hail             4 NNW Ecru              34.41N 89.04W
06/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Union              MS   Broadcast Media

            Quarter size hail fell in Ingomar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
809 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     Hail             Tunica                  34.69N 90.38W
06/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Tunica             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Quarter size hail reported on Highway 61 in
            Tunica.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
815 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Hail             4 W Denmark             34.33N 89.43W
06/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Lafayette          MS   Trained Spotter

            Quarter size hail fell in the Lakes
            subdivision near Oxford.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
830 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Marked Tree             35.53N 90.42W
06/11/2023                   Poinsett           AR   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Marked Tree. Trees and powerlines down in
            Marked Tree. Several trees down in the
            cemetery. Damage to Central Baptist Church.

&&