Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
337 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

An unsettled pattern will continue across the Midsouth for the
upcoming work week but cooler temperatures will be a welcomed
change for the first half of the week. Monday should be mostly dry
with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. However,
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Tuesday into next
weekend. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer each day
with 90s returning area wide by Saturday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 257
PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Showers and thunderstorms are developing rapidly across the
region. An Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms exists for
nearly all of the Mid South as a cold front moves through the
region this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued for all of the Midsouth through 10 pm tonight
although portions of the watch will likely be cancelled after
storms move through and stabilize a given region. Area upper air
soundings show sufficient dry air aloft to result in an enhanced
risk for both large hail and damaging wind, with the greater
threat evolving into damaging wind later this evening. 25-35kt
0-3km shear should be sufficient to maintain healthy updrafts in
storm clusters, but likely too little to result in any significant
tornado threat. Hail and damaging wind will be the main threats
from any severe thunderstorms, but frequent lightning and heavy
rainfall will pose a threat to any outdoor events, even from sub-
severe thunderstorms.

Transient high pressure will build in behind the cold front later
tonight resulting in mostly dry conditions Monday. However, zonal
to weak northwest flow will return Tuesday. Several impulses will
traverse the mean flow Tuesday through Saturday resulting in
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. At this time there
is no indication that widespread severe storms are likely. Heavy
rainfall over several days could develop into a flooding threat.
Temperatures tomorrow should be seasonably pleasant, featuring
highs in the middle 70s to low 80s. We should see our coolest
temperatures of the forecast period Tuesday morning when areas
near the Tennessee River may dip as low as the middle 50s. Expect
high temperatures to trend a few degrees warmer each day with 90s
returning area wide by Saturday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Current VFR conditions will diminish this afternoon as a result
of a cold frontal passage. Gusty wind conditions are anticipated
to continue ahead of the FROPA and ongoing the VCTS/TSRA at the
terminals. Latest guidance is suggesting KJBR will miss the brunt
of the broken line, but all other TAF sites could experience low
CIGS and brief periods of lower VSBYS during TSRA.

The line is moving quickly with current WSW flow veering NE as a
result of the passage. Possible BR conditions could happen after
thunder activity diminishes, but lack of confidence prohibited in
this TAF cycle. MVFR/IFR conditions are more probable during
20Z-02Z as the front moves through the region, but heavy rainfall
could result in brief periods of lower VSBYS.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...DNM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
459 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

ARZ035-048-112230-
St. Francis AR-Cross AR-
459 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central St.
Francis and Cross Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hickory Ridge, or 11 miles northwest of Wynne, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wynne, Parkin, Village Creek State Park, Colt, Hickory Ridge,
Vanndale, Hydrick, River Front, Fitzgerald Crossing, Crow Creek,
Wittsburg, Tilton, Duvall, McDonald, Brushy Lake, McElroy, Kinton,
Fair Field, Ellis Chapel and Levesque.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
eastern Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 9104 3544 9096 3544 9091 3525 9051
      3503 9070 3528 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 306DEG 29KT 3535 9094

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
504 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TNZ050-089-090-112230-
Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-Haywood TN-
504 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Fayette,
northwestern Hardeman and south central Haywood Counties through 530
PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Arlington, or 17 miles south of Covington, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Whiteville, Somerville, Dancyville, Warren, Oakland, Gallaway,
Braden, Hickory Valley, Yum Yum, Fayette Corners, Laconia, Cedar
Chapel, Belmont, Vildo, Middleburg, Longtown, Moorman, Taylor Chapel,
Lambert and Miller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8909 3524 8964 3538 8963 3539 8961
      3540 8955 3540 8948 3542 8947 3542 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 276DEG 36KT 3533 8955

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ARS

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