Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1053 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

No big changes made to the forecast this morning. Temperatures
are on track to top out in the low to mid 90s this afternoon under
hazy skies. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
initiate by late afternoon and slowly sag southwest through this
evening. Coverage will be a bit higher than the past several days
as a backdoor cold front sags into the region from the northeast.
A strong storm or two is possible, given the thermodynamic
environment, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Areas of haze or smoke may be noticed across the Midsouth for the
next day or two from wildfires in Canada. Otherwise, expect
more warm temperatures today through Wednesday featuring highs in
the 90s along with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. A backdoor cold front may enhance the coverage of
storms tomorrow and Wednesday. Behind the front, Thursday and
Friday look a bit cooler and drier. Temperatures will trend
slightly warmer over the weekend with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

A persistent blocking pattern featuring an upper level high over
the northern Plains and and lower heights over the Southern Plains
and Texas will continue to prevail resulting in warm conditions
across the Midsouth. This pattern will retrograde slightly early
in the week becoming oriented along a northeast to southwest axis
from the Northern Plains into the Desert Southwest by midweek.
This minor shift will allow a couple of backdoor cold fronts to
move through the Midsouth Tuesday and Wednesday. The chance of
widespread rain and thunderstorms should increase in the presence
of these fronts. Strong to severe thunderstorms look unlikely,
although locally heavy rain and frequent lightning are always
possible with thunderstorms this time of year.

Thursday and especially Friday look drier as the front moves
toward the Gulf Coast and high pressure builds in from the north.
Temperatures should trend slightly warmer over the weekend, but
likely remain below 90 degrees across most of the region. General
zonal flow is expected across the Midsouth Saturday and Sunday.
Guidance has been fairly consistent for the last couple of days in
bringing a weak trough and cold front across the area late
Saturday into Sunday resulting in some of the higher chances of
rain we have seen in a week or longer.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Primary aviation weather concern is TSRA chances this afternoon.
Secondary concern is overnight visibility restrictions due to
smoke and haze.

Similar to the last couple days, KNQA VAD wind profiler showed
deep easterly flow over the Midsouth. Surface dewpoints had
increased to the mid/upper 60s, ahead of a cold front, slow-moving
cold front over the lower Ohio River Valley. This front was not
particularly well-defined, but it should provide sufficient low
level convergence for scattered TSRA as it drops into the Midsouth
this afternoon. Areas south of a JBR-MEM-CRX line appear most
favored for TSRA after 21Z. Isolated pre-frontal TSRA will be
possible just about anywhere prior to 21Z.

TSRA should diminish in the early evening, given a stabilizing
boundary layer and lack of shear. HRRR and RAP depict little to
no overnight visibility restrictions due to smoke and haze.
Confidence is not high however, will need to monitor upstream
visibility trends through this evening.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ001-007-008-
     011-012-020.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
128 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

ARZ026-027-051900-
Poinsett AR-Craighead AR-
128 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Craighead and northwestern Poinsett Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Weiner, or 15 miles east of Newport. This storm was moving southwest
at 5mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Weiner, Cash, Pitts, Risher, Uno and Bayou De View State Wildlife
Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 9094 3575 9085 3556 9095 3563 9104
      3567 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 043DEG 4KT 3569 9097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Schlessiger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
159 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ002-051930-
Marshall MS-
159 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Marshall
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Red Banks, or near Holly Springs, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Holly Springs, Wall Doxey State Park, Red Banks, Marianna, Waterford,
Galena, Mack, Mahon, Gilton and Chulahoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 8967 3469 8967 3469 8970 3489 8957
      3483 8938 3460 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 013DEG 7KT 3479 8954

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Schlessiger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
214 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ010-020-051945-
Coahoma MS-Tallahatchie MS-
214 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Coahoma
and west central Tallahatchie Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tutwiler, or 13 miles southeast of Clarksdale. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tutwiler and Beaver Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 9045 3399 9056 3410 9046 3410 9045
      3407 9045 3407 9038 3406 9034 3388 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 020DEG 4KT 3403 9044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Schlessiger

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>