River Flood Warning 2, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
559 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South early this morning with
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Currently, a cold front
was over extreme western Arkansas and into east Texas. There is
still some instability over portions of the Mid-South east of the
Mississippi River and a new tornado watch has be issued for the
rest of the morning hours.

As the front moves east rain will eventually end mainly over areas
of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River especially during
the afternoon hours. Rainfall should not be as heavy as we are
currently experiencing so the current Flood Watch will expire at 6
AM CST. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The cold front will move through eastern sections of the Mid-South
tonight with more thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the
front. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front with
lows Wednesday morning in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

With the cold front moving away from the region on Wednesday, high
pressure will start to build into the region with dry and cooler
weather expected. Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday but
remain above normal with highs in the 50s to mid 60s.

Dry weather will continue from Wednesday night through Friday
night. Temperatures will be a little cooler during this period but
will be close to normal.

A surface low will track across northern Oklahoma Friday night and
into southern Missouri on Saturday. A cold front associated with
the low will move across Arkansas on Saturday. This will result in
some scattered showers moving across the Mid-South on Saturday
and Sunday. Models are not in good agreement regarding where the
front will be by Monday so a few showers may linger across the
Mid-South. Temperatures will remain near normal for the weekend
and into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

A line of showers and thunderstorms will push across the Mid-
South in advance of a slow moving cold front. The line is already
through KJBR though MVFR cigs will linger into early afternoon.
The line is moving through MEM/MKL attm with ocnl IFR conds in
heavy rain/thunder. Line should move east of MEM/MKL around mid-
morning with low clouds lingering. VFR conds will return by the
evening. The front will take longer to move through TUP. The first
round of showers and storms and ocnl IFR conds will occur from
mid morning through noon with some lingering storms into the
early afternoon. Expect a break during the late afternoon into
early evening followed by more storms possible late evening into
the overnight along with lower cigs.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for MSZ001-002-007-
     008-010>012.

TN...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST early this morning for TNZ001>004-019-
     020-048>051-088-089.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...SJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
436 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041245-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
436 AM CST Tue Jan 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning across portions of
the Mid-South east of the Mississippi River. The main threats will
be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this morning. Please
relay any information about observed severe weather to the
National Weather Service in Memphis.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
741 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE PARAGOULD          36.09N 90.49W
01/02/2023                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ON FORMON DR AND STACY
            DR IN NORTH PARAGOULD. AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF
            WATER IN SOME HOMES AND SOME RESIDENTS WERE
            BEING EVACUATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
742 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 AM     TORNADO          2 ESE OLIVE BRANCH      34.94N 89.79W
01/03/2023                   DESOTO             MS   OTHER FEDERAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 2 ESE
            OLIVE BRANCH. A TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS
            DETECTED EAST OF OLIVE BRANCH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
743 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TORNADO          3 SSW BROWNSVILLE       35.55N 89.28W
01/03/2023                   HAYWOOD            TN   OTHER FEDERAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 3 SSW
            BROWNSVILLE. A TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS
            DETECTED SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE BY THE
            KNQA 88D RADAR. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON SHAW
            CHAPEL ROAD ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
            79. SOME SMALL TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ON
            HIGHWAY 70 BETWEEN HARRELL ROAD AND TRITT
            ROAD EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. LOTS OF BROKEN
            TREE BRANCHES IN WILLOW GROVE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
745 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARIANNA                34.77N 90.77W
01/03/2023                   LEE                AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 79 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS IN
            MARIANNA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
749 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW HAYWARD           36.41N 89.70W
01/03/2023  M3.76 INCH       PEMISCOT           MO   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MOA11 PORTAGEVILLE-DELTA
            CENTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
750 AM CST TUE JAN 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW GREENWAY           36.38N 90.26W
01/02/2023                   CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

            COUNTY RD 450 WASHED OUT JUST EAST OF COUNTY
            RD 461.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE PARAGOULD          36.09N 90.49W
01/02/2023                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            RESIDENTIAL FLOODING ON FORMON DR AND STACY
            DR IN NORTH PARAGOULD. AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF
            WATER IN SOME HOMES AND SOME RESIDENTS WERE
            BEING EVACUATED.

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE CAMPBELL           36.50N 90.07W
01/02/2023                   DUNKLIN            MO   PUBLIC

            RESIDENTIAL STREETS COMPLETELY SUBMERGED
            WITH FLOODWATERS UP TO THE TOP OF CAR TIRES
            IN CAMPBELL.

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE PIGGOTT           36.39N 90.19W
01/02/2023  M5.50 INCH       CLAY               AR   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 5.5 INCHES OF
            RAIN IN THE GAUGE STARTING AT 5PM THROUGH
            10PM IN PIGGOTT, AR.

0129 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W MIDTOWN MEMPHIS     35.14N 90.00W
01/03/2023  M60 MPH          SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

0148 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARIANNA                34.77N 90.77W
01/03/2023                   LEE                AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 79 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS IN
            MARIANNA.

0225 AM     TORNADO          3 SSW BROWNSVILLE       35.55N 89.28W
01/03/2023                   HAYWOOD            TN   OTHER FEDERAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 3 SSW
            BROWNSVILLE. A TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS
            DETECTED SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE BY THE
            KNQA 88D RADAR. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON SHAW
            CHAPEL ROAD ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
            79. SOME SMALL TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ON
            HIGHWAY 70 BETWEEN HARRELL ROAD AND TRITT
            ROAD EAST OF BROWNSVILLE. LOTS OF BROKEN
            TREE BRANCHES IN WILLOW GROVE.

0432 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS   35.12N 90.07W
01/03/2023                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            I-55 AT MCLEMORE EXIT IS FLOODED. SEVERAL
            CARS ARE PARTIALLY SUBMERGED AND TRAFFIC IS
            HALTED.

0604 AM     TORNADO          2 ESE OLIVE BRANCH      34.94N 89.79W
01/03/2023                   DESOTO             MS   OTHER FEDERAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 2 ESE
            OLIVE BRANCH. A TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS
            DETECTED EAST OF OLIVE BRANCH.

0735 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW HAYWARD           36.41N 89.70W
01/03/2023  M3.76 INCH       PEMISCOT           MO   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MOA11 PORTAGEVILLE-DELTA
            CENTER.

&&