River Flood Warning 16, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
540 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will lift through the Midsouth today,
along and ahead of a slow-moving cold front. A few of the
thunderstorms may reach severe limits before exiting northeast
Mississippi late this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threat, accompanied by secondary threats of
tornadoes, flash flooding and large hail.

Following the passage of the cold front today, cooler and less
humid weather will prevail over the Midsouth Friday and the
weekend. Saturday morning's low temperatures will cool into the
20s over most of the Midsouth. Thereafter, temperatures will
gradually each day through Tuesday, when daytime highs reach the
70s. Tuesday's warmth will precede a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

GOES water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted longwave
trough over the 4-corners area. Downstream of the trough,
southwesterly flow aloft extended from TX through the lower MS
River and Ohio River valleys. Divergent flow aloft was evident on
thunderstorm anvils over the Midsouth and lower Ohio River Valley.
06Z SHV sounding showed 2300 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, leading
credence to RAP-based SPC mesoanalysis MLCAPE estimate of 2500
J/kg over central AR at 08Z. Closer to home, MLCAPE ranged from
1000-2000 J/kg, per the RAP-based SPC Mesoanalysis page. KNQA VAD
hodograph showed 0-3km SRH of 470 m2/s2 at 0735Z.

Instability and shear aside, late evening and overnight convection
has remained relatively shallow. This may change toward sunrise, with
midlevel height falls and the approach of a surface cold front.
Tornado warnings have been issued over northwest into north
central AR early this morning, just east of a surface low along
the cold front. This front will push through the Midsouth today,
passing through Memphis by noon, and preceded by one or more
convective lines. Today's greatest severe risk will occur over
northeast MS where the cold front will intercept afternoon
instability and deep layer shear. 06Z HRRR depicts MLCAPE of 1800
J/kg at Tupelo and 0-3km SRH of 250 m2/s2. Flash flooding will be
possible, with precipitable water values around 1.7 inches, and
storms training along the cold front. Given the saturated soils
and elevated streamflows across this area, urban and small stream
flooding is quite possible.

Following the passage of the cold front late this afternoon, cool
and dry continental surface high pressure will settle into the
Midsouth. The center of this pressure ridge will settle over the
Midsouth, along and east of the MS River Friday night. Dry air and
calm winds will set up prime radiational cooling conditions, with
Saturday morning's lows forecast to drop into the 20s regionwide.

West/southwest zonal flow aloft will prevail from Sunday through
early next week. Midsouth surface temperatures will progressively
warm through the period, returning to the upper 60s and lower 70s
by Tuesday. Modified maritime air will accompany the warmer
temperatures, with surface dewpoints in the 50s. Modest convective
instability will accompany a passing shortwave trough Tuesday
night. The forecast will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday night, but at this time, convective parameters appear
insufficient for severe storms.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Prevailing rain/TS looks to be shifting out of MEM at 12z however
another line of storms is approaching from east Arkansas. This
line associated with a cold front will likely result in brief IFR
to LIFR conditions due to low vis at JBR in the next hour or two
and at MEM between 13 and 15z. Ongoing rain/TS ar MKL will be
followed by a second round before midday. Expect gusty west to
north wind behind the front. A broad trough will remain across
the Midsouth today and tonight resulting persistent MVFR clouds.

30/Sirmon

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S GATES               35.82N 89.41W
02/16/2023  M5.35 INCH       LAUDERDALE         TN   COCORAHS

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E DIXONVILLE          35.43N 89.72W
02/16/2023  M3.11 INCH       TIPTON             TN   COCORAHS

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 AM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     HAIL             3 E GREENFIELD          35.68N 90.66W
02/16/2023  E0.88 INCH       POINSETT           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL
            COMMUNITY.

&&

MJ