Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

164 
WGUS74 KMEG 191758
FFSMEG

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

TNC079-183-191808-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-230719T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry TN-Weakley TN-
1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN HENRY AND 
NORTHEASTERN WEAKLEY COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3626 8881 3641 8883 3641 8882 3647 8881
      3650 8883 3650 8838 3636 8814 3631 8816

$$

Schlessiger

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
928 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

A band of showers and thunderstorms continues to sag south across
West TN this morning, producing very heavy rainfall throughout the
TN Valley. A subtle shortwave trough is moving through the OH
Valley enhancing large scale ascent. This lift is augmented via
upper- level divergence associated with the right entrance region
of a mesoscale, upper-level jetlet moving through KY. An axis of
enhanced low-level convergence extends from southeast MO into
Middle TN, also affecting portions of northwest TN. MUCAPE values
on the order of 2000 J/kg will maintain convection as this band
shifts south over the next few hours with strong effective bulk
shear keeping this activity at least somewhat organized.
Precipitable water is nearly 2.25" across the Lower OH Valley this
morning which is near the climatological maximum for the region.

The heavy rainfall threat will persist through the morning with
flash flooding being the primary concern. Gusty winds are also
possible with the stronger storms. CAM guidance indicates drier
weather this afternoon as the complex of storms accelerates to
the south and east, but this will be replaced by heat and
humidity. Heat indices of 105F+ are expected in many areas, with
locations along/west of the MS River near 110F. No changes were
made to the current heat headlines, but there is some uncertainty
that areas in the TN Valley will reach advisory criteria.

MJ

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

A complex of showers and thunderstorms will affect portions of
the Mid-South mostly across portions of west Tennessee near the
Tennessee River this afternoon and exit the region by this
evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible
Thursday mainly north of I-40. Main hazards will be gusty winds
and heavy rainfall. By Friday into Saturday a cold front will push
into the area allowing for more showers and thunderstorms and
cooler and drier temperatures by Sunday. Very hot and humid
conditions will persist ahead of the approaching cold front with
heat index values ranging between 105 to 115 degrees today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Current radar shows an MCS moving into our northeast position of
West Tennessee. So far, this system has brought a lot of rain to
PAH area, which was expected with yesterdays model runs. 00Z CAMs
depicts this MCS slowly diving south throughout the day today,
and will be pretty much confined to our counties near the
Tennessee River. As the system dives south, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds will be the main hazards. Point and click soundings
show CAPE values of 3000 MLCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates and
PWATS greater than 2 inches, which is in the 99th percentile of
NAEFS climatology for this time of year. Otherwise, a hot and
humid airmass is in place across the Mid-South with high
temperatures today generally in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index
values stay around 110 to 115 just west of the Mississippi River
and taper to 106 as you move closer to the Tennessee River. Heat
index values could be a bit high this afternoon, especially with
the MCS slowly pushing south, but they're expected to remain near
Heat Advisory Criteria.

Tomorrow morning looks a lot like this mornings scenario. Another
MCS will dive from Missouri and clip our area. Again the main
hazards will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Estimated QPF
values look to be higher just east of our area. However, that
depends on the storm track and if CAMs timing and location pan
out. Estimated QPF values across the area for just tomorrow are
between 0.50 to 1 inches with locally higher amounts, which may
not seem like a lot, but ongoing conditions have already primed
soils to turn any excess water into runoff fairly quickly over
northwest Tennessee. Models show this MCS moving out of the area
by tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index
values remain around 110 to 105 across the area tomorrow. Not sure
what the current MCS will do to temperatures so decided to hold
off on a Heat Advisory for now. Will continue to monitor trends.

A cold front will begin to move south into the Lower Mississippi
Valley Friday into Saturday with a series of shortwaves expected
to move into the area. This will bring yet another chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South. Behind this front
expect cooler and drier air to build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

A nearly stationary corridor of broken to solid TSRA prevailed
from south of STL to PAH to BNA at discussion time. The southward
propagation component evident on GOES IR imagery will combine
with relatively strong westerlies to produce an overall
southeastward movement through the morning, roughly parallel to
the orientation of current convection.

MKL 12Z TAF retains a VCTS to account for possible isolated
SHRA/TSRA development south of the main TSRA corridor. Otherwise,
MEM appears too far into the upper ridge for a VCTS mention in the
12Z TAFs. 11Z Terminal Convective Forecast (TCF) appears on track.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-
     007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001-
     019-048-049-088.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ002>004-020>022-
     050>055-089>092.

&&

UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...SWB
AVIATION...PWB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1027 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Hail             1 NE Jonesboro          35.83N 90.68W
07/18/2023  E0.75 inch       Craighead          AR   Public

            Near Nettleton Rd and Caraway Ave.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1030 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Jonesboro          35.83N 90.70W
07/18/2023                   Craighead          AR   Public

            Tree down near Oak Ave and Main St. Other
            reports of trees down in Jonesboro.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1033 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     11 SE Buena Vista       35.87N 88.13W
07/18/2023                   Benton             TN   Public

            Trees down in the Holladay community.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1043 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNW Clarksburg        35.93N 88.40W
07/18/2023                   Carroll            TN   Public

            Large tree snapped near residence south of
            Davis Chapel.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1046 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     Flash Flood      2 ENE Paris             36.31N 88.27W
07/19/2023                   Henry              TN   Emergency Mngr

            Fairgrounds Road was flooding at Bailey Fork
            Creek. Time estimated.

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1119 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Fairview          34.37N 88.29W
07/18/2023                   Itawamba           MS   Broadcast Media

            Numerous trees and power lines down in the
            Fairview community. A barn sustained roof
            damage. Some of the more significant damage
            was on Saddle Club Rd.

&&

MJ