Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
353 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Wet and unsettled weather will continue through this weekend.
Loosely organized storms are possible on Thursday as an upper
level low lifts across the region. A couple of storms may produce
gusty winds and small hail. Hot and humid conditions will persist
through Mother's Day with a pattern change anticipated early next
week. Drier and cooler air will persist across the Mid-South
through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Storms have easily exceeded expectations this afternoon. With over
2500 J/kg of MLCAPE available and less than 15 knots of shear, storms
have pulsed to severe limits across much of the region. Several
microbursts have occurred across the region today and have mainly
caused damage to trees and power poles. A couple instances of
large hail have also occurred. Additional instances of damaging
winds and large hail are possible through early evening along with
isolated flooding reports. Intensity of storms should subside by
sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Another band of showers will lift across the region overnight, but
should not be a cause for concern. The next round of showers and
thunderstorms will arrive tomorrow afternoon as an upper level low
lifts across the region. A few strong storms are possible as
MLCAPE values approach 2000 J/kg once again. Convection becomes a
bit more scattered Friday through the weekend as no appreciable
forcing mechanisms will be in place across the region. The main
story will be heat and humidity. Highs will be approaching 90 each
day with overnight lows around 70F.

By early next week, the upper level pattern will shift as the
ridge sinks south and a large upper low invades the eastern half
of the U.S. This will help push a cold front through the region on
Monday. As a result, cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Tuesday through late week. Expect highs in the lower 80s
and lows in the lower 60s. The next chance of rainfall will arrive
next weekend as a cold front moves into the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue along an outflow boundary
this afternoon into the evening hours. Generally VFR conditions
will prevail through tonight outside of convection, but IFR
ceilings and gusty winds are possible with any storms. This
activity will diminish this evening, though scattered showers will
be possible overnight, mainly over eastern AR. A lull in
precipitation is anticipated on Thursday morning but we do
expect low clouds to fill in across the Mid-South during this
period. Wind speeds will generally remain below 10 kts.

MJ/GNC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ011.

TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PARAGOULD          36.04N 90.49W
05/10/2023                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN ON SOUTH SECOND AVENUE IN
            PARAGOULD. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PARAGOULD          36.04N 90.49W
05/10/2023                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 2
            SE PARAGOULD. POWER POLES SNAPPED ON SOUTH
            SECOND AVENUE IN PARAGOULD. TIME IS RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

AJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW GILT EDGE          35.55N 89.85W
05/10/2023                   TIPTON             TN   PUBLIC

            JAMESTOWN RD IMPASSABLE DUE TO DOWNED TREES.

&&

MJ

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