Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
526 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

A low pressure system will track through the Mid-South this
morning. This low will drag a cold front through the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will be found ahead of the cold front.
Some of the thunderstorms could be severe with tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also
expected. Winds will be very strong outside of the thunderstorms
and behind the cold front. Wind gusts of more than 60 mph are
possible. Behind the front, dry and colder weather is expected for
tonight through Sunday morning. Temperatures will warm back to
above normal levels for Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will
bring more rain to the region for Monday night through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

A cold front currently is just south of Little Rock extending
northeast to just south of Dyersburg and then continuing east to
just south of Huntingdon. Temperatures north of the front are in
the mid 40s to mid 50s while south of the front, readings are in
the mid to upper 60s. Showers and thunderstorms are moving slowly
across eastern Arkansas and are just beginning to cross the
Mississippi River.

As low pressure moves along the front, thunderstorms could become
severe with tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds possible.
Rainfall could reach 3 to 5 inches over portions of northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel and northwest Tennessee and a
Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire Mid-South until noon.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will get quite strong as the low
pressure moves through the region as well as behind it. Winds
gusts could reach 60 mph at times. The High Wind Warning will be
expanded to include most of the Mid-South and will be in effect
from 6 AM until 6 PM this evening.

High pressure will be building into the region tonight with dry
and cooler air moving in. Temperatures will be seasonally cool
with lows Saturday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Some
patchy areas of frost could develop over northern sections of the
Mid-South. The surface high will be over the region on Saturday
with dry weather and temperatures near normal with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Saturday night will remain dry with
temperatures moderating. By Sunday, winds will have shifted to the
south allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 70s across the
southern half of the region. Monday will also be dry with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s in the afternoon.

A cold front will move into the region from the north Monday night
with scattered showers developing. The cold front will move into
north Mississippi by Tuesday morning and then stalls out across
central Mississippi on Wednesday. As a result, more showers are
expected across the entire Mid-South for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. An upper level disturbance moves through the region on
Thursday with more scattered showers possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the Mid-
South this morning ahead of a cold front. Some areas of MVFR
ceilings can be found ahead of the front. Once the cold front
moves through ceilings will improve to VFR levels. Winds will be
quite strong today starting from the south at 20 to 25 knots with
gusts exceeding 40 knots. By this afternoon winds will shift to
the southwest but will remain as strong. By tonight, winds will be
from the northwest at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts then
will diminish overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until noon CST today for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-
     048-049-058.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ009-018-026-027-
     035.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ028-036-
     048-049-058.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ028-036-048-
     049-058.

MO...Flood Watch until noon CST today for MOZ113-115.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ113-115.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Flood Watch until noon CST today for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Flood Watch until noon CST today for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-
     088>092.

     Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...ARS

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