Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

  * WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW
  MEXICO...NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND
  SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

There is quite a bit going on in the short term. We'll begin will an
approaching upper trough today, which will bring us our first winter
weather of 2023. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface low will set
up over Chihuahua while high pressure will build in Oklahoma. An
850mb 50kt jet will develop in between these two areas along the
Lower Trans Pecos, and quite a few places in our southeastern CWA
could see gusts up to 55mph this afternoon. A Wind Advisory remains
in effect until late this evening for the aforementioned areas, and
blowing dust will be possible. Temperatures this afternoon will be
similar to Sunday in the 50s and 60s.

Now for the winter weather. Ample moisture will be pulled into New
Mexico and West Texas as this low approaches and precipitation will
begin as rain before switching to snow or a rain/snow mix as the
colder air arrives. Precipitation will start out west across Eddy
and Lea counties tonight before transitioning eastward Tuesday
morning and afternoon. The important aspect will be timing of the
colder air matching up with the heavier bands of precipitation.
Decent instability will result in some convective precipitation
early Tuesday morning, right around the time of the coldest
temperatures. A decent column of cold air means that much of the
precipitation falling in this time period will be snow, at least for
those where surface temperatures are at or below freezing. Soil
temperatures remain too warm (43-45F) for much in the way of
impacts, but periods of heavy banding during this event could
produce some accumulations on bridges and overpasses that may create
hazardous driving conditions. Otherwise, light snow or rain/snow mix
should be present for most areas north of the I-20 corridor much of
Tuesday, with the areas seeing the highest snowfall totals being SE
New Mexico and the higher terrain such as the Guadalupe, Delaware,
Davis, and Chinati Mountains. Areas surrounding the aforementioned
mountains may see some light accumulation as well. The heaviest
precipitation will shift further east later on the day Tuesday, and
much of the northern Permian Basin will see high temperatures
Tuesday afternoon only a few degrees warmer then the lows Tuesday
morning. There remains some concern and uncertainty regarding wrap-
around banding of precipitation in the Borden/Scurry region Tuesday
afternoon, and how this might match up with near-freezing
temperatures to produce a period of some heavier snowfall. Models
show temperatures at this point to be too warm for wintry
precipitation, however with colder air mixing down through the event
given drier air in the upper levels, it's possible models are too
warm with surface temperatures there. This will be something to keep
an eye on. For now, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Eddy and Lea counties, Gaines, Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties,
and the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains for up to 4 inches of
snowfall. All precipitation should end by Tuesday evening.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Not much to write home about in the long term...as this forecast is
heavily front-loaded wrt to significant weather.

Tuesday night, the upper trough will be ejecting into the MS Valley,
leaving behind dry, northwest flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  A gradual warmup ensues, with zonal flow
aloft developing later in the workweek as a secondary trough begins
developing over the Four Corners after Wednesday.

As this occurs, thicknesses will be on the increase through the
week, with highs topping out Saturday afternoon at or above normal
most locations, making Saturday the warmest day this forecast.
Unfortunately, the secondary trough is forecast to move through the
area late Saturday, and drop a cold front into the region Sunday
morning.  This will take highs to at or below normal most locations
by Monday afternoon.

Unfortunately, grids stay dry in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Initial concern is strong SE wind flowing into surface low. INK
and FST have had gusts over 40 kts this morning with MAF near it,
have issued an AWW for MAF for wind until 04z. VFR this afternoon
but blowing dust can reduce vsbys down into upper MVFR range.
Tonight rain may mix with or change over to snow especially at CNM
and HOB, IFR cigs possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  34  41  26 /   0  90  90   0
Carlsbad                 55  33  47  26 /  10  90  40   0
Dryden                   57  42  58  32 /   0  80  40   0
Fort Stockton            58  38  50  29 /   0  80  40   0
Guadalupe Pass           51  29  41  27 /  10  80  30   0
Hobbs                    53  30  42  24 /   0  90  70   0
Marfa                    60  25  47  23 /   0  60  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  35  43  27 /   0  80  80   0
Odessa                   56  35  44  28 /   0  80  70   0
Wink                     58  34  47  27 /   0  80  50   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening to
     6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for Borden-Dawson-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Scurry.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Andrews-Crane-Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves
     County Plains-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
     Tuesday for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Southern Lea
     County.

&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...72

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>