Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf of California,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft.  At the surface, a cold front has pushed to south of the
Pecos, but the colder air has hung up diurnally as expected, and
compressional warming ahead of the front should add a few degrees
onto current temps before the afternoon is out. Vis sat imagery
shows a respectable cu field going up along the front, w/forecast
soundings filling in behind it over the next couple of hours.  Also
present on WV imagery is an upper jet moving into West Texas, the
left front quadrant of which will be over Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon.  Mesoanalysis shows deep layer shear 30-40kts along and
north of I-20, as well as Presidio Valley/Big Bend Area.  Mid-level
lapse rates are 7 C/km or better over all but northern Lea County.
Finally, the 88D shows the first convective initiation going up in
the lee of the Davis Mountains.

All this is setting the stage for widespread convection later this
afternoon/evening, with a few supercells and attendant large
hail/damaging winds.  Storm motion is slow enough for some localized
flooding, as well.  Convection should generally develop southwest
overnight with the front, with overnight lows down to right around
normal.  NAM/GFS soundings forecast PWATS overnight at KMAF up to
1.45"/1.32", respectively. Climatological max is 1.36". So, as
severe activity winds down overnight, localized flash flooding
could be of concern.

Saturday, best chances of rain will be over the Davis Mountains/Big
Bend Area invof the front, tapering off in the northeast CWA.
Temperatures will be ridiculously below normal for late May, but
with a big spread among the deterministic solutions.  Considering
expected rainfall and a widespread stratus field, we'll undercut the
NBM just a skosh, for highs Saturday ~ 15-17F below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

The southern High Plains will be under short wave ridging to start
the long term portion of the forecast, then transitioning to
southwest flow as we get later in the week. There will be a chance
of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily
across the higher terrain and adjacent plains as well as the
northern Permian Basin. Temperatures Sunday will be a bit below
normal, but with a return to ridging aloft, thicknesses will rise
and temperatures will warm into the upper 70s at higher elevations
in the mountains to near 102 at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend
National Park. Lows in the 50s to near 70 are also expected. All
in all, not a bad forecast, but we could use rain in areas that
haven't seen much in quite some time. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Mesoanalysis shows the front moving into the panhandles, with
surface winds already veering at northern terminals. Expect these
winds to increase through tonight. Forecast soundings develop a
widespread cu field early, w/bases 4.5-7 kft AGL. Convection is
possible, and will be amended in as needed. Late tonight, post-
frontal stratus is expected, IFR at most terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  73  58  82 /  40  20  20  30
Carlsbad                 59  71  57  82 /  40  40  30  40
Dryden                   66  77  63  82 /  10  50  40  30
Fort Stockton            61  71  59  82 /  30  50  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           54  65  56  77 /  30  50  30  40
Hobbs                    55  71  55  80 /  30  20  20  30
Marfa                    56  72  50  79 /  10  60  40  50
Midland Intl Airport     58  70  58  81 /  30  20  20  30
Odessa                   59  70  60  81 /  30  30  20  30
Wink                     60  70  58  83 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-202030-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
324 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 /224 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening,
mainly in the eastern Permian Basin and the Western Low Rolling
Plains of west Texas and the southeastern New Mexico plains. Any
severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and
damaging winds. Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.
Last, frequent lightning can be expected in and near any
thunderstorm. Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 229 has been issued
for the southern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
452 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

TXZ050-051-061-062-192230-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Andrews TX-Ector TX-
452 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ector,
southeastern Andrews, northwestern Midland and southwestern Martin
Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 452 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Midland, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Midland International Air and Space Port, Warfield, Cotton
Flat and Midland Airpark.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 128 and 142.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 10225 3211 10242 3224 10208 3189 10195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 252DEG 11KT 3202 10215

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

TXZ051-052-192230-
Martin TX-Howard TX-
453 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Howard
and east central Martin Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lenorah, or 17 miles south of Ackerly, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lenorah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 10188 3230 10193 3249 10168 3225 10159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 244DEG 11KT 3230 10182

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
504 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

TXZ050-060-061-192245-
Andrews TX-Ector TX-Winkler TX-
504 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Ector, south
central Andrews and eastern Winkler Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Goldsmith, or 16 miles west of Odessa, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, Goldsmith, West Odessa, Odessa Schlemeyer Field and Notrees.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 109 and 117.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 10276 3204 10285 3228 10251 3181 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 275DEG 22KT 3188 10264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

TXZ082-192245-
Terrell TX-
509 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Terrell
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Pumpville, or 16 miles southeast of Dryden, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Terrell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2980 10180 2981 10182 2979 10182 2981 10185
      2980 10187 2980 10191 2978 10193 2982 10198
      2980 10199 2980 10204 2979 10204 2979 10207
      2995 10210 3014 10176 2978 10176 2979 10178
      2978 10181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 244DEG 28KT 2986 10194

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

91