Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

A trough over the Central Plains extends down into TX and NM while
high pressure remains over the SE and Western States.  This trough
will swing east tonight weakening the ridge over the Gulf states as
the one over CA/NV strengthens.  The western ridge will grow Sunday
reaching from the Pacific into NM as the base of the trough lingers
along the Red River.

Had a weak front move into the area this morning and make it down to
MAF before stalling out then being pushed northward by the southerly
flow.  Lows expected to drop into the 60s tonight except for 70s
along the Pecos and Rio Grande.  Highs Sunday warm into the low to
mid 90s across most of the region.

The frontal boundary will be an excellent focus for thunderstorm
development. As of 18z have no storms along the boundary within the
CWA with one storm over the Davis Mountains another north of Van
Horn. Models blow up storms late afternoon/early evening across Lea
County into the Western Permian Basin. This complex of storms moves
south through Central Permian Basin during the evening then into
Crockett and Val Verde overnight. The SWODY1 has a small slight risk
right over the Permian Basin so could see some of these storms
become severe. Damaging wind will be the main concern along with
isolated large hail possible.  Best chance Sunday will be over the
Davis Mountains southward across the Marfa Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

The pattern slowly shifts to warmer and drier after this weekend. An
upper level ridge takes hold over the Desert Southwest and broadens
itself to just cover portions of the forecast area. Highs gradually
go from near normal in the mid 90s to the upper 90s and low 100s
towards the middle and end of this coming week. Now it will not be
the late June heat we recently saw, but temperatures will be a few
degrees above normal. Morning lows stay near normal in the upper 60s
to low 70s. The normal high terrain cool spots getting into the
upper 50s to low 60s. With high pressure building back in during the
week, rain chances will decrease with the Davis Mountains and
Presidio Valley seeing the best chances for isolated to scattered
shower activity during most afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

Current terminal impacts are contingent on convection with all
terminals outside KFST seeing some type of impact from
thunderstorm activity nearby. Primary sites of concern the next
few hrs will be KMAF and KINK where KMAF is currently under an AWW
for lightning inside 10nm. This threat will continue through
02-03z for most sites with improvement everywhere after 05z. Winds
will be vrb under the influence of outflows from regional
convection. Winds will be occasionally gusty >20kts through the
evening before generally <12kts overnight into tomorrow. Overall,
VFR prevailing outside TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  70  95 /  50  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 68  97  68  97 /  20  30  20  10
Dryden                   72  90  72  94 /  30  40  10  10
Fort Stockton            69  93  71  96 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  91  68  92 /  20  40  20  20
Hobbs                    65  94  66  95 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                    59  89  59  89 /  40  60  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     69  94  70  96 /  70  20  10   0
Odessa                   69  94  70  96 /  60  20  10   0
Wink                     69  96  71  99 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-021845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
139 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 /1239 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal to slight risk for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, some may be severe, with lightning, gusty strong
winds,and large hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
732 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

TXZ061-062-068-069-020115-
Midland TX-Crane TX-Ector TX-Upton TX-
732 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ector,
southwestern Midland, northeastern Crane and northwestern Upton
Counties through 815 PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Crane, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasant Farms and Crane County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 10231 3147 10254 3180 10242 3166 10212
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 205DEG 10KT 3152 10242

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

29

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
735 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Hail             3 SE Hobbs              32.70N 103.13W
07/01/2023  E1.25 inch       Lea                NM   Public

            Member of the public sent in a picture of
            half dollar size hail from in Hobbs.

&&

cas

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