Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023

Ample cloud cover over the region may limit some of the expected
heating today and highs should only reach the upper 70s to low 80s
this afternoon. A shortwave moves across West Texas and the
Panhandle today while mid-level moisture increases, creating a
favorable environment for convection around peak heating despite
the cloud cover. Afternoon GFS forecast soundings show around 1500
J/kg of CAPE and PW values around 1" over the northern Permian
Basin, although low shear values may limit widespread storms from
developing. Additionally, low-level moisture will be shallow,
especially across the west, so the majority of storms today are
expected to be high-based. The main threat expected given the
environment profile this afternoon will be very strong, damaging
winds, but localized large hail is not out of the question as
well. Storms will develop off of the dryline backed up against the
higher terrain out west early this afternoon, and storms then
move east- northeast into SE New Mexico, the western and northern
Permian Basin, and parts of the I-10 corridor. Given moisture
availability will be limited, expansive heavy rainfall isn't
expected. With any storms that do develop today, prepare for
damaging wind gusts and strong downdrafts, and make sure to remain
weather aware through this evening, leaving your phone ON in case
any warnings are issued.

Storms should begin to dissipate after sunset, although some hi-
res models indicate that a few cells may linger through late this
evening across the northern Permian Basin. Overnight, lows remain
mild in the 50s and 60s given the cloud cover and light winds.
Wednesday should be almost identical to today, although storm
coverage may be slightly lower with a less defined shortwave
moving across. The dryline recedes further west to the Davis
Mountains stretching up to the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
where convection will once again develop by early afternoon. There
will be more available low-level moisture on this day, but
widespread heavy rainfall still isn't expected. Severe storms may
develop, especially along the line stretching from Lea county down
to the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau, with the main threat
once again being strong, gusty winds. Storms should tamper off
late Wednesday night, and given the increasing moisture and cloud
cover, temperatures may only drop to the low 60s by Thursday
morning.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023

A deep upper low over the West Coast will leave New Mexico and
Texas under southwesterly flow through the weekend and into early
next week. Deep layer mixing will bring the southwesterly winds
aloft to the surface spreading dry air east into the eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Unfortunately this keeps most
rain chances east of our CWA though there are some low chance
PoPs in the eastern most counties to account for some uncertainty
in the position of the dryline. Dry air and downsloping winds
cause temperatures to climb above normal through the extended
forecast, though not unusually so with highs only reaching the
upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Certainly not too bad for
this time of year.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023

Scattered storms are ongoing at issuance, with impacts early in
the period most likely at MAF/FST/INK/HOB. Activity should wane by
around 03-04, though somewhat erratic and at least intermittently
gusty winds will remain possible through the night due to numerous
outflow boundaries. Blowing dust and heavy rain may produce MVFR
conditions this evening in the vicinity of storms, but otherwise,
VFR conditions can be expected overnight. After 12Z, MVFR ceilings
will spread northwestward into the area, and have included mention
at MAF/INK/FST where confidence is highest. Improvement is
expected by around 18Z, with another round of storms possible late
in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               59  86  64  89 /  50  30  30  40
Carlsbad                 54  85  60  85 /  50  40  40  10
Dryden                   63  83  64  91 /  30  30  30  40
Fort Stockton            61  84  63  89 /  30  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass           54  80  57  77 /  40  40  40  10
Hobbs                    53  82  58  83 /  60  40  50  20
Marfa                    48  84  52  83 /  50  30  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     59  84  63  87 /  60  30  30  30
Odessa                   60  84  64  87 /  50  30  40  30
Wink                     56  85  61  90 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
201 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 /101 PM MDT Tue May 2 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability of severe storms late this afternoon
through mid evening over the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
southeastern New Mexico. Any severe storms that do develop will be
accompanied by damaging winds and large hail near 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong storms are possible across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico on Wednesday.

High winds are possible Thursday through Saturday, mainly in the
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

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